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My Case Against Re-signing Spencer

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CowboysLaw87, Jan 29, 2013.

  1. CowboysLaw87

    CowboysLaw87 Active Member

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    It is scary going into the unknown, and it is sad to lose a player via FA who has been a lifetime Cowboy and has grown into a very productive player. That said, there is more good than bad when it comes to letting #93 leave. Many of this has been said before, but some things some people are not fully aware of. Here we go...

    1. Spencer turned 29 last week. If we made the Super Bowl next season, he'd play the game at 30 years old. Handing out massive, long-term contracts to players who are around age 30 is just not smart. He's been durable, but has a lot of wear and tear because of it (career snap count). If we re-signed him, our potential starting 4 DL would ALL be 30+, with the exception of Spencer (29). We need to focus on getting younger, not guarantee that we'll be extremely old along the front for years.

    2. While his sack totals rose, his total pressures did not (or not significantly). He played really well this year, no doubt. But all he really did was convert the near-misses he'd been having in prior years. It's not like he became a pass-rushing terror. Now, his sacks are clutch and his overall pressure very good. I just think that his "improvement" is a bit overrated.

    3. The big question... will he remain motivated after getting the huge deal? He very well may shut it down. There's so much precedence for this on our own team, whether it's a motivation issue or otherwise (Free, Austin, Hamlin, Barber, Ratliff, etc.). Of all those guys, I think you can argue that Spencer might love football the LEAST and be motivated by the paycheck the MOST.

    4. We're in a terrible salary cap situation. We'd be compounding the issue both now and in the future if we sell out to resign Spencer. Might be smarter to simply bite the bullet, not take on the contract, and have more flexibility for years to come. Which leads to...

    5. We'll need to resign Romo, Lee, Dez, Murray, etc. in the near future. Would be nice to go into those offseasons with a little less financial strain already on us.

    6. We'd get a very nice compensatory pick in the 2014 Draft for losing him. Like a 3rd rounder. That's extremely significant, as I think we can all agree that a late 3rd round pick has the potential to be a starter.

    Add it all up and I think it's just better to bring in a guy via the draft and let him compete with Crawford for the LDE job this year. If it results in subpar play, we can always make DE a higher priority next year. Just my thoughts, and thanks for reading.
  2. dantheman41

    dantheman41 Active Member

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    Agree completely. I think he would be more missed if we were still in the 3-4
  3. DFWJC

    DFWJC Well-Known Member Zone Supporter

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    Lots of legit issues in there.

    My main issue is whether or not he will fit well enough in the Kiffin's 4-3 to warrant what is going to get paid.
    SAM LBs should not be paid huge dollars generally and although he has played DE in a non Tampa 4-3, that was in college.
  4. da_whiz_kid

    da_whiz_kid Active Member

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    I'm in the middle when it comes to Spencer. I think if he comes at a reasonable price he is worth keeping, as he may not play great all the time, he puts up on above average performance and is good at certain aspects of the games. At the same time I wouldn't be mad with him leaving and the the 'Boys receiving a 3rd for him. Any amount of early picks for the draft next year should be used for getting that beast they call Clowney.
  5. CowboysLaw87

    CowboysLaw87 Active Member

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    Very true. If we stayed in the 3-4 I'd be signing a different tune. He's a very good 3-4 SOLB. Those guys are a bit harder to find and he'd undergo no transition.
  6. DBOY3141

    DBOY3141 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not for re-signing Spencer. Use the money to fix the OL. We can compete with a better OL and half the injuries we had this year.
  7. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    This is faulty logic. You don't get picks just for losing a guy.
  8. da_whiz_kid

    da_whiz_kid Active Member

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    Please explain AbeBeta.
  9. jobberone

    jobberone Orangutans make great guitarists Staff Member

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    I think u do get a comp pic but it'll be for 2014.
  10. CowboysLaw87

    CowboysLaw87 Active Member

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    Compensatory picks are given on a case-by-case basis, based on a balancing scale of what was lost v. what was gained via free agency.

    Assuming we won't be adding much in FA this year, losing Spencer would be extremely significant (former 1st rounder, key contributor, big money FA), and wouldn't be offset by much FA-related gains. I think his loss would result in a 3rd round comp pick.

    For that matter, add Jenkins, Felix, Victor Butler and John Phillips as FA losses and I think we'd get multiple comp picks (highest being that 3rd rounder).
  11. LarryCanadian

    LarryCanadian Active Member

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    Tough decision. I think it comes down to whether the coaches and players think we have a legitamite shot to do anything in playoffs in next couple years OR if this is a true rebuild team - which means the window is also closed for Ware, Romo, Witten (and Rat - although he is a big ?).

    Hard to replace Spencer's production and VERY risky - without him we would have likely lost a few more games for sure - he was very solid and also made big plays at big times this season.

    Draft picks often don't pan out, no guarantee the money we use on free agent or the compensatory draft pick ever produces...
  12. Erik_H

    Erik_H Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun. Zone Supporter

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    If Spencer were resigned, it would be as a DE. He's not even in the running for SLB.
  13. TheCoolFan

    TheCoolFan Well-Known Member

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    Changing scheme to the 4-3. I'm not sold on Spencer's ability to be a true bookend edge rusher opposite Ware. I'm not concerned about Ware's ability to switch to a 4-3. He's one of the best pass rushers of the last 10 years, he'll transition fine. Great pass rushers like him will fit in any scheme. However for Spencer, he's more of a jack of all trades type player. The 3-4 is perfect for his skillset while the 4-3 isn't. I'd let him walk and start from scratch at that position via the draft or free agency, with Crawford as depth.
  14. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Comp picks are a balance of who you sign vs. who you lose.

    The only way your argument works is if we don't sign guys to fill any needs. And that is an insane proposition.

    Given the obvious holes we have we are going to need to sign at least one DL, an offensive lineman, a safety (this would likely be the big money target), an SLB to replace Connor, possibly a backup running back and a blocking TE.

    We'll likely sign more than we lose.
  15. Shinywalrus

    Shinywalrus Active Member

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    These two points seem to conflict a bit. On the one hand you argue that this last season wasn't really all that much better than his prior ones, but that line of logic says that Spencer was always quite good, we just didn't see it because we're focusing on sacks instead of pressures.

    If that's the case, then why worry about motivation?

    Seems to me Spencer has always been effective and among the most consistent players on our defense. I don't think the motivation issue is any more relevant for him than it is for any FA or even draft pick, for that matter.
  16. CowboysLaw87

    CowboysLaw87 Active Member

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    It's not just about the number of guys acquired v. number of guys lost, it's also about quality. This is determined by a "totality of the circumstances" type analysis... size of the FA contract, production on the field, etc.

    If we lose Spencer that'll be a MAJOR factor in the "balancing test." And there's nearly no chance we sign more than we lose anyway (Spencer, Felix, Jenkins, Butler, Phillips). We'll get picks.
  17. CowboysLaw87

    CowboysLaw87 Active Member

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    Oh I'm totally saying that he's always been quite good. I was a huge proponent of tagging him last year. All I'm saying is that I think QB pressures is a better indicator of a player's pass rush ability than just looking at sacks. With that said, he's always been very good, and this year was no different. But just because his sack totals rose, I don't think that 100% means that his play was much better than in years past. He had about the same amount of pressures as previous years. I think the difference was that extra split second the QB held onto the football because of better coverage (Carr, Claiborne) that allowed Spencer to convert a few more pressures to sacks.
  18. Erik_H

    Erik_H Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun. Zone Supporter

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    You make some legit points here, although I don't agree with all of them, they are reasonable concerns.

    If he's 29, then he should still be good for 3-4 years. Saying he'd be 30 if we made the Super Bowl next year is a bit of a weak argument there. It's stretching to be able to put the dreaded 30+ argument in there. It exaggerates his age and weakens your argument.
    That's a way to look at it I suppose. It's true that there hasn't been that much improvement, the but that actually supports keeping him. The extra second of time given to him by an improved secondary (CBs anyway) means that he's playing the same but getting better results. Rather than overrating his improvement, it's his play in previous years that has been underrated.
    While I think it's unfair to say he likes football the LEAST, especially comparing to Any of the players you listed, the worry that he may not play as hard after his pay day is a valid concern. There is no actual and factual information to support the idea that Spencer is going to sit back and relax once he gets his money. He's been in a contract year 2 years in a row now. This year just looks better because of a few extra sacks. However, we have been burned a lot lately. It's fair to have this as part of the equation.
    Yeah, our cap is pretty tight. We'll be right up against it even after we do all the restructuring we end up doing. In the end we'll probably have enough to get one mid to high price FA and some role players. The question is whether we want our mid to high priced guy to be Spencer.
    Romo will be extended in the next few months and will actually alleviate some of this year's cap problems. It just comes down to how much of a hole missing Spencer will make. We do have some other pay days coming up that you mentioned, so it's a matter of shuffling who gets what for which year to make it work. Could be tough.
    The compensatory pick would be nice, but that would depend on other players we bring in in FA. Odds are pretty good that Spencer would net a 3rd, But I wouldn't be surprised if Jenkins falls in that range too. He's gone and should get a pretty decent contract.
  19. GimmeTheBall!

    GimmeTheBall! Junior College Transfer

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    GOOD post.

    Spencer, after all these years, has a good year in 2012. All of a sudden he is a franchise-type player? Only in JerraWorld.
    In general, he is as pedestrian as Ratliff and Hatcher and we just have to get away from these "great" players and focus on younger, more talented players.
  20. LatinMind

    LatinMind iPhotoshop

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    You will most def get a pick because of spencer leaving. basically because Dallas wont be doing much in FA. They're going to lose Spencer, Jenkins, Felix, all will most likely either start or have a role(Felix) with another team. I doubt Dallas signs any starters in FAs

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