Talk about interesting. I have wondered how spreading draft risk over multiple players would pan out, for example, are 2 second rounders more likely to be starters that risking a hit or miss on 1 first rounder? This analysis answers that, and puts success for a better than average starter in round 1 at 30%, pretty low if you ask me. http://realcavsfans.com/showthread.php?38395-NFL-Draft-Success-by-Round Good stuff. So who are the 10 players who will be above average starters in the first round? You can only pick 10!