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Off-Season Priority #1: Find A Running Game

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by TheFinisher, Jan 1, 2013.

  1. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    The correlations are not different in the playoffs than they are in the regular season.
  2. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    I have no idea what you are doing in this post or where you came up with those numbers.

    In Week 1, for example, we averaged 9.355 net yards per pass play, and the Giants averaged 5.343. Where did you get a difference of 1.56?

    Here are the actual numbers for each game this season --

    Code:
    OPP 	DAL 	OPP 	NET
    NYG 	9.355	5.343	4.012	W
    SEA	6.024	6.045	-0.021	L
    TB	6.023	3.033	2.990	W
    CHI 	7.204	10.269	-3.065	L
    BAL 	6.865	8.519	-1.654	L
    CAR 	6.676	5.538	1.138	W
    NYG	6.288	6.333	-0.045	L
    ATL 	8.667	8.919	-0.252	L
    PHI 	6.655	6.465	0.190	W
    CLE 	4.509	5.189	-0.680	W -x
    WAS 	6.609	9.600	-2.991	L
    PHI 	10.138	6.857	3.281	W
    CIN 	5.196	5.000	0.196	W
    PIT 	7.628	7.250	0.378	W
    NOR	9.022	8.415	0.607	L -x
    WAS 	5.026	4.579	0.447	L -x
    As you can see, even without any penalty for interceptions, the team with the higher ANYPA went 13-3. Two of the losses were in overtime, and the other was the final game, when we threw three more interceptions than the Redskins.
  3. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    If you look at total attempts, you're simply mistaking cause and effect. Teams that are already winning run the ball late in the game. Teams that are already losing pass the ball more late in the game. Teams run BECAUSE they are winning, not the other way around.
  4. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    I've absolutely never said anything close to that. You need to improve your reading comprehension skills.
  5. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    No, the Cowboys were within 1 TD in all but 1 of their Wins.
  6. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    What does that have to do with what I said?
  7. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    OK, this looks better. I was a column off on the formula.

    Now the correlation is similar to the Rush Attempts correlation.

    [IMG]

    [IMG]
  8. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    As I said, rush attempts "correlate" with wins because teams run when they're already ahead. When teams are behind, they try to pass to catch up. Teams run more BECAUSE they're winning, they don't win because they're running more.
  9. FuzzyLumpkins

    FuzzyLumpkins The Boognish

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    Correlation doesn't imply causation either way. I could just as easily argue that if you do not at least run some in the first half when most every game is still contested it is going to be more difficult to get your overall rush attempts to the point where it correlates well. Running the ball does reduce the number of plays overall. Getting 20 carries in the 4th quarter up two scores or the like is pretty difficult.

    Looking at it by quarter may shed some light on this.

    Do you happen to have a graph of rushing attempts versus winning %? The reason why I ask is I am wondering if it looks somewhat continuous or if there is some sort of step.
  10. TwoDeep3

    TwoDeep3 Well-Known Member

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    All these stats are soooooo interesting, but for this team, Tony Romo needs to have a running game that is successful in the first half, which will make him more effective.

    His problem is being behind and doing too much when having to play catch up.

    Shorten the game with an effective run game and the Oh Damn It Tony plays will be fewer and father between.
  11. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    In the first half of games this season, with the score tied, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 44.1 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 44.5 percent of the time.

    Through three quarters, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 44.0 percent of the time when the score was tied. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 45.1 percent of the time.

    When behind by 1-8 points (within one score) in the first half, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 41.5 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 41.0 percent of the time.

    Through three quarters, when behind by 1-8 points, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 42.7 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 42.1 percent of the time.

    When ahead by 1-8 points in the first half, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 43.2 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 43.7 percent of the time.

    Through three quarters, when ahead by 1-8 points, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 43.9 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 43.8 percent of the time.

    As you can see, winners and losers ran the ball almost exactly the same percentage of time based on the game situation -- winners did not run it a higher percentage of the time than normal, based on the game situation.
  12. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    Except that it *doesn't* make him more effective. That's the point.
  13. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    I think what he is trying to say is tha if you at least try to run the ball some, it keeps the defense honest which will allow for more efficient passsing.

    If the defense knows you cant run, they are just going to drop everybody back and play the pass. This makes passing harder since there is more coverage, thus your passing is less efficient.


    Cant or wont run = defense playing pass = harder to pass = less efficient = loss
  14. FuzzyLumpkins

    FuzzyLumpkins The Boognish

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    So then rushing attempts per down in the first three quarters are irrelevant assuming the same number of plays. I get what you are saying.

    Does seem a bit of apples to oranges when comparing it to raw attempts but compelling nonetheless. Good stuff thanks.
  15. wick

    wick Active Member

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    Why do people cling so fervently to theories when the facts debunk them? I understand that seemingly every NFL guy says that you have to run the ball well and stop the run to win and that it would seem to make some sense logically, but if you look at what has actually happened over thousands and thousands of NFL games and find that no, it really doesn't matter how well you run the ball or stop the run, why do so many continue to insist that it does? To do this is to argue against reality.
  16. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    = not true.

    Every team tries to run the ball "at least some." More running or better running does not make your passing more effective.
  17. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    In games where the difference in the final score is?
    3
    3
    6
    1
    5
    7
    5
    5
    2
  18. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    Yes, teams run the ball more when they're ahead in close games and pass more when they're behind in close games. Also, the final score doesn't tell you how close the game was throughout the game.
  19. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Teams alter their offensive approach when they're ahead by 1 score?

    Teams pass more when they're behind.
    If this is correct, then it should be expected that the pass attempts made while behind would be less efficient than the pass attempts made by the team that is ahead.

    It appears that your opinions are:
    A correlation between rush attempts and winning are an effect not a cause of winning (i.e. stats can be misleading).

    A correlation between pass attempts and winning are a cause not an effect of winning. (i.e. stats are absolute).
  20. CowboyRoy

    CowboyRoy Active Member

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    Cmon, give it a rest. No one is buying your ridiculous point, in case you havent noticed.

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