One Way it Could Go Down (A First Round Mock with Commentary)

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Shinywalrus, Apr 26, 2011.

  1. Shinywalrus

    Shinywalrus Active Member

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    1. Marcell Dareus (DL) - CAR
    How it goes down:
    - Carolina takes its time, fields a couple weak offers, but ultimately decides to start off the draft with a bang that shifts the trajectory of the entire first round.

    2. Von Miller (OLB) - HOU *Trade* Houston Trades #11 pick, Rd 2 - Pick #10 and Rd 4 - Pick #8 to Denver
    How it goes down:
    - Denver, who desperately wanted Dareus to build its defense around, sees diminished value in the remaining players relative to their draft position.
    - They field calls from San Francisco, to see the cost of moving ahead to grab one of the QBs ahead of BUF/CIN, but Denver's price is too steep
    - Wade Phillips need for a pass rusher in his system wins the day, and Houston goes big on a trade-up with Denver to grab Miller at one of only two draft spots he will be available. Bills curse continues.

    3. Cam Newton (QB) - BUF
    How it goes down:
    - Buffalo spends the first 2 minutes crying about Houston stealing Miller from them, then remembers 41-38 and feels slightly better about itself
    - Bills try to trade down, including fielding a call from ARI, who has some interest in getting ahead of CIN. At the end of the day, ARI feels confident CIN has to go QB and that it won't need to move up to draft someone rated at its #5 spot.
    - Buffalo gives some consideration to the receivers and Peterson, but ultimately goes the Tebow route and grabs headlines and maybe a few more years of survival in upstate NY with Newton

    4. AJ Green (WR) - CIN
    How it goes down:
    - CIN is a bit torn about when to pull the trigger on a QB, and their first preference would be to trade back from this pick, hopefully to get ammo to move back up into the late first to grab their guy. The difficulty is that no one really sees any value in jumping Arizona and Cleveland
    - I think CIN is confident enough they can grab a QB in early 2 or trading back into round 1 that they won’t spend this on Gabbert

    5. Aldon Smith (OLB) - ARI
    How it goes down:
    - ARI wants to trade back, and it thinks it has its patsy in DAL. Jerry doesn't want to give up his round 2 pick, and plays it cool. Jerry can trade back and be happy at #9 and is willing to trust PP falls to Cleveland where he only has to give up a #3 pick, something he has the firepower to trade back into
    - SF would be interested in jumping here, but Arizona has no interest in putting its receivers against Patrick Peterson twice a year for the next decade
    - Houston was the perfect trade partner for Arizona, but since they traded up with Denver, there's no really valid trade-back.
    - ARI takes their top-rated pass rusher at 5, a little bit frustrated with how things fell but happy to come away with a top tier player

    6. Patrick Peterson (CB) - DAL *Trade* Dallas Trades #9 pick, Rd 3 - Pick #8, Rd 7 - Pick #13 to Cleveland
    How it goes down:
    - CLE wants to pick up another late round security pick with uncertainty around UDFA (they lack a 7th) and is comfortable with the value of a 3rd for the potential of someone jumping SF/TEN to take their guy - Julio Jones
    - Dallas fans alternately jump for joy or lament that the Cowboys "aren't one player away", and that a Super Bowl would have been MUCH closer if we drafted 8 players instead of 7.
    - SF fans, ready for their moment of elation, are devastated. Then they realize that they also still live in California. Mass suicide ensues.

    7. Julio Jones (WR) – NE *Trade* NE trades #17 pick, Rd 2 – Pick #28, Rd 4 – Pick #28
    How it goes down:
    - This was the scenario BB was looking for to get Jones, knowing with near certainty that he'll be gone at Pick 9. They would have lobbed calls to both SF and TEN, but with Peterson gone and the scouts not sold on Gabbert, SF is more than happy to move out of this pick
    - Holmgren is one angry walrus.

    8. Robert Quinn (DE) – TEN
    How it goes down:
    -No drama here. TEN isn’t sold on Fairley, and there’s really no cause for any teams in the vicinity to trade up.
    -MIN and MIA make calls for the pick, but Tennessee has its guy and is asking too much to move

    9. Blaine Gabbert (QB) – MIN *Trade* MIN trades #12 pick, 2012 3nd Round Pick, Rd 4 - Pick #9
    How it goes down:
    -Cleveland trades back to 9 thinking there’s no chance SF or TEN go after their guy, but New England gladly swoops in at 7 to ruin their day
    -Gabbert has fallen a bit and Minnesota sees its opportunity – he won’t slip past WAS, so if they want him, they figure, now is the time

    10. Jake Locker (QB) – WAS
    How it goes down:
    -Washington fans hoping for Gabbert over Locker are disappointed by Minnesota’s trade-up
    -Still, with both elite receivers off the board, there’s not a lot for Washington to do here
    -WAS fields some calls from mid-teens teams (STL/SD) about the offensive and defensive linemen still on the board (in particular some teams looking to jump in front of Detroit) but no deal fits

    11. Da’Quan Bowers (DE) – DEN (from Trade with HOU)
    How it goes down:
    - DEN doesn’t buy the injury fears and sees Bowers as a cornerstone piece in the new defense
    - SD and Miami both show interest in jumping ahead of DET for an OT and there’s some interest from Miami in moving up for Amukamara, but Denver has already dropped back and is looking for quality at this point.

    12. Nick Fairley (DL) – CLE (from Trade with MIN)
    How it goes down:
    - CLE turns in its card fairly quickly.
    - Some last gasp efforts for teams to jump ahead of Detroit for the falling linemen, but Cleveland is tired of trading back and wants their man

    13. Tyron Smith (OT) – DET
    How it goes down:
    - Detroit probably likes Smith/Castonzo similarly, but sees Smith as a better LT prospect to match with their serviceable RT
    - With most of St. Louis’ expected targets off the board, Detroit gets little interest.
    - Some fear starting to rise for those teams hoping to trade back into late Round 1 for their QB that Miami and now San Francisco may be threats to them

    14. Stephen Paea (DT) – STL
    How it goes down:
    -In a shocker in St. Louis, Paea goes much earlier than most pundits expect
    -Talking heads on ESPN grouse about “reaching,” prepare themselves for another Alualu experience where, it turns out, the drafting team was more or less correct

    15. J.J. Watt - SF *TRADE* SF trades #17 Pick (via NE), 4th Round to MIA
    How it goes down:
    - San Francisco panics that their guy may not make it past Jacksonville and makes the trade
    - MIA doesn’t see the threat of losing the surprisingly dropping Amukamara as all that high, although JAX is a threat

    16. Cameron Jordan – JAX
    How it goes down:
    - JAX finds a perfect big pass rusher at 16, gets praise for the “value” of the pick
    - Teams in search of offensive tackle talent see the dropping tackles and start itching to trade up and secure their guy. NY, NO, IND all worry about the teams in front of them. Still, a guy who’s likely high on JAX’s board falls

    17. Prince Amukamara – MIA (from Trade with SF)
    How it goes down:
    -MIA doesn’t think much, grabs a falling CB that they have graded highly

    18. Anthony Castonzo (OT) – SD
    How it goes down:
    - San Diego’s main targets didn’t fall to them, but they are able to bolster the offensive side of the ball with a top 15 player on their board

    19. Derek Sherrod (OT) – NYG
    How it goes down:
    -New York wanted Castonzo but knew it was a lost cause by the mid-teens.
    -CB was a consideration and they got some early interest from a couple teams looking to trade back into Round 1, but none could really provide enough compensation
    -They happily take a tackle that should be plugged in very easily to their system

    20. Ryan Kerrigan (DE) – TB
    How it goes down:
    - Tampa gives some consideration to Jimmy Smith in context of the potential loss of Talib, but ultimately decides they need more pass rush
    - They like Kerrigan to bring some more stable, blue collar motor guy to help stabilize some of the emergent character problems on their team

    21. Akeem Ayers (OLB) – KC
    How it goes down:
    - KC soured on Taylor post injury reports and feels least comfortable with their pass rush
    - Hoped Kerrigan or Jordan might fall, but no such luck
    - Some early calls about trading back in to grab a QB, but not enough value for the early 20s

    22. Jimmy Smith (CB) – BAL *TRADE* BAL trades with IND
    How it goes down:
    - Baltimore sees the writing on the wall at 23 and knows that their guy won’t be there after PHI’s pick
    - Indy knows their guy is likely to be on the board later and is willing to drop a few picks

    23. Ryan Mallett (QB) – OAK *TRADE* OAK trades with PHI
    How it goes down:
    -PHI’s guy is gone, and they don’t see value at positions they’re looking for
    -OAK is worried that the guy they want isn’t there when they pick in Round 2 and is a big risk to be taken at 25 or by another team trading up

    24. Andy Dalton (QB) – CIN *TRADE* CIN trades with NO
    How it goes down:
    -CIN has some similar thoughts to OAK and worries that their guy won’t get past SEA at 25
    -NO would be happy to take Taylor or Clayborn, even Solder, but sees a lot of value at the top of round 2

    25. Adrian Clayborn (DE) – SEA
    How it goes down:
    -SEA sees a great fit in Clayborn, who dropped far beyond where he should have
    -Consideration goes to Ponder, but the value isn’t there, so they follow the board

    26. Stefen Wisniewski (C) – IND
    How it goes down:
    -Polian follows his board and picks the best interior lineman in this draft.
    -Draft pundits “blah-blah-blah” about a reach
    -In 2012, everyone talks about how they saw this coming, wonders who the next Wisniewski will be.

    27. Nate Solder (OT) – BUF *Trade* BUF trades with ATL
    How it goes down:
    - Buffalo decides they must have a QB to pair with their surprising catch of Newton
    - They like Carimi but see him as a RT prospect
    - They decide they want to grab Solder, the guy they think makes the most sense for them, before Chicago gets to make a decision

    28. Phil Taylor (DT) – DEN *Trade* DEN trades with NE
    How it goes down:
    - NE, spending some capital on a trade-up in Round 1, decides to rearm with a trade-down from their second pick
    - DEN, which sees some risk to its next piece of the puzzle, feels the need to grab Taylor before some of the teams at the end of the round who could be targeting him

    29. Gabe Carimi (OT) – CHI
    How it goes down:
    -Chicago runs to the podium

    30. Jon Baldwin (WR) – NYJ
    How it goes down:
    -New York considers adding some more talent to the inside of the line, but just lost too many skill players in free agency
    -They see value in Baldwin and feel that he’d match up well with the talent there and provide a weapon for Sanchez

    31. Mike Pouncey (OG) – PIT
    How it goes down:
    -He’s there, he fell more than people thought, but this seems about right
    -Why the hell not draft brothers? What could go wrong?

    32. Danny Watkins (OG) – GB
    How it goes down:
    -GB could go a number of different directions here, but reloading in the trenches makes the most sense
    -GB is (obviously) equipped to win now, so reloading with a physically mature talent makes more sense for them than many other squads
    -Some dangling of interest from other teams to grab Ponder or Kaepernick before NE can shop the top pick in Round 2 around too much overnight, but no dice
  2. Outlaw Heroes

    Outlaw Heroes Well-Known Member

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    Kudos for offering up something creative and well thought out (must have been a ton of work). It actually could go this way and if it did we'd have one of the more interesting drafts in recent memory.
  3. DFWJC

    DFWJC Well-Known Member

    35,197 Messages
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    That was a fun read!
    A lot of that is not unrealistic at all. Maybe a couple of those trades may even go down in a similar fashion.
  4. canters

    canters Well-Known Member

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    That must have taken a lot of work--thanks for the effort! Enjoyed reading it.
  5. Sam I Am

    Sam I Am Unfriendly and Aloof!

    37,576 Messages
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    Can't see Aldon Smith going 5th above Robert Quinn and I can't see Nick Fairley falling that far. Someone will take a chance on him before he gets that low.
  6. Gaede

    Gaede Well-Known Member

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    Awesome draft, was a fun read as well
  7. jobberone

    jobberone Kane Ala Staff Member

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    Great read. Thanks.
  8. basstapp

    basstapp Well-Known Member

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    That means heyward is available in the 2nd and we can take him :)

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