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PA Senate Race Primary Prediction

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by BulletBob, Apr 27, 2004.

  1. BulletBob

    BulletBob The Godfather

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    Just got back from voting.

    I'll make a prediction for the Pennsylvania Senate Race (Primary).

    In a shocker, Pat Toomey will defeat Arlen Specter.

    He will then face a very tough race against Democrat Joe Hoeffel.

    I say this because turnout was extremely light today at the polling location.

    This favors Toomey, because in a light turnout, chances are that hard-core conservatives will be the group most likely to care, and head to the polls.

    So, what does this mean to the national presidential race?

    This should worry Bush in the big picture. With an incumbent Specter running for Senate, Bush doesn't really have to worry about the Democrat base being fired up to defeat Arlen. However, with an incumbent defeated, and the seat "in play", not only will the Democrats sense blood and pour money into the race, but they will fire up the base by making the case that PA already has one conservative senator (Rick Santorum), and the world will end if we elect two.

    An energized Democrat base does not bode well for W's chances in the battleground state of PA. :mad:
  2. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    I'd like to see Toomey take Specter down, but I think Arlen will pull it out. He's got too strong of a machine.

    I take it by your :mad: that you wouldn't like to see this hurt Bush in the general election. I wouldn't worry too much about that. "Reverse coattails" seldom (if ever) apply. There are usually so many factors at play, that it's all a wash. In fact, Specter would almost certainly turn out "moderates" in a general election that will vote for him and then turn around and vote Kerry. These people may not have voted at all without Specter in the race.

    With polar opposites in the general (Toomey and whoever he runs against) you'll have both bases coming out as they normally would. In fact, some conservatives who may not have voted (turned off by Specter and Bush) may turn out for Toomey and cast a vote for Bush because they're there.
  3. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Hey BulletBob, I didn't even notice I was responding to you until after I had posted my reply! I guess I'm just following you around the non-Cowboys areas posting replies to your theories. :D

    You know, you may be right about the money aspect, in that it will certainly be a tighter race with Toomey in.

    That said, while PA would be nice for Bush, he doesn't absolutely need it. He won in 2000 without it. I think the real shocker will come in Calif when Bush wins there.
  4. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    I've done some work for the Toomey campaign and I will tell you that some internal polling has this race even closer that the reported 6 point margin.

    I've also seen some reports of a substantial crossover by Democrats looking to unseat Specter, aiding Hoeffel.



    I do agree that Rove and Co really hope for a Specter win to ease some of the fervor come November.
  5. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    Overall light turnout in the Philly area may hurt Specter somewhat, but exit polling suggests that Toomey isn't carrying the "T" as much as needed. Especially the southeast/central area.
  6. BulletBob

    BulletBob The Godfather

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    43% of Precincts in:

    Specter 52%
    Toomey 48%

    Race has narrowed significantly. Looks like it will go down to the wire ...
  7. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    Only way Bush wins in CA is if it is a landlide anyway. As for PA, considering that the Midwest is not looking really good for him, he needs some insurance. And I am on the opposite side of the effects... if Tomey wins, Bush loses PA.
  8. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    I only vaguely know the PA political map... the "T" is about the extent of it. Any more info on which 43% this is? Heavy Tomey areas or no?
  9. BulletBob

    BulletBob The Godfather

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    That's OK Danny, I've reported you to the authorities:

    [IMG]

    Agreed, Danny. While PA is not absolutely necessary for Bush, it is a must win for Kerry. Kerry loses PA, he loses the election. Believe it or not, Bush seems to be closing the gap in neighboring NJ. That is remarkable (not sure I believe it).

    Dude, if Bush wins California, there will be mass suicides in the universities, and Berkley / San Fran will attempt to secede from the nation. :cool:
  10. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    It is really too early to tell much of anything in polls besides that it is incredibly close. We will see how Kerry fills out his bio with upcoming ad campaigns and how all the uncontrolable variables play out (Iraq, economy, Osama, etc) The race should really start to take shape about August/September.

    All the toss up states are just that right now, and while Kerry would like PA, he could pick off a number of other battlegrounds to make up for it.
  11. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    Specter and Toomey Remain Close, 55% Reporting

    Specter: 59%

    Toomey 41%


    Specter and Toomey Remain Close, 64% Reporting

    Specter: 52%

    Toomey 48%





    I'll say light turnout!


  12. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    I've seen some incredibly strange voting patterns in this election. I'll have to wait until I get a breakdown by precinct, but something smells fishy.

    The last jump was a Specter advantage of 140,000 to 40,000. I just can't see that many precincts going 75% Specter.
  13. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    Bucks County Reporting Error

    Bucks County has erroneously reported extra votes for Arlen Specter... stay tuned as the numbers are adjusted.





    Is this a heavy county one way or the other?


  14. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    Should fall 60% Specter or so at most.
  15. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    Anyone hear of any updates? It looks like it has been stuck at 73% reporting for quite awhile now... 52% Specter 48% Tomey
  16. marsbennett

    marsbennett Mars Man

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    I would love to see Arlen "the magic Bullet " Specter get his clock cleaned and I'm a Rep.
  17. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    11:33 PM and with 77% reporting
    Spector 51 %
    Toomey 49%

    OVer 90% of Philly's precincts are in while many of Toomeys is still out. I am predicting a Toomey win. By the way I to live in PA and the turn out at our polls was very light. I agree this will aid Toomey as many Republicans are torn over to support a Bush backed candidate, Which they want to do or to support a Candidate who represnets their values. By the way, the only reason that Bush backed Spector was because it is Party policy to endorse the encumbant.
  18. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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  19. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    The traditionally slow reporting swath from Bedford county through Blair the whole way north to the Northern tier of McKean, Potter, Warren seems to be holding true again, basically districts 5 and 9. Very slow reporting.

    I doubt Toomey makes up the 6,000 vote difference due to the small population base, but it will get closer.
  20. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    If this keeps up we will be waiting into May to get all the absentee ballots in for a result. Welcome to Florida folks!

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