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PA Senate Race Primary Prediction

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by BulletBob, Apr 27, 2004.

  1. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    But right now they are saying that Toomey has a large lead on Spector in the Pittsburgh area and that alot of the regional precincts have not reported from that area yet. There is way more than enough to make it up there.
    It's now less than 5,000 votes and with 85% reporting. I think he makes it up.
  2. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    [font=&quot]I think it has a heck of a lot more to do with raw political calculations then simply policy. An incumbent has a better chance of winning. A moderate has a better chance of winning. A moderate looks better next to Bush than does a very conservative guy. Bush not backing Toomey is because he wants to win in November and Rove says to go with Specter. If Karl thought Toomey gives them the better shot, they would undoubtedly go that way.[/font]
  3. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    Unless there's a spike in absentee ballots, I just don't see how Toomey can pull it off.
  4. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Respectfully I disagree. I have been working with the state Republican committee for several years and know intimately that this is policy for the party. Unless of course there is something out of the ordinary. Toomey had actually gone to Bush before he entered the race and told him he wanted to run. Bush told him straight up that he could not support him because of policy towards incumbants. Toomey told Bush that if he didn't want him to run he wouldn't and Bush said to go ahead and run and if he wins Bush would support him as the party's nominee. This has been a long standing party policy.
  5. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    You may be right at this point. Just checked the latest #'s and with 89% in it's still 50/50 but the count is
    Spector 434,398
    Toomey 426,087

    8311 difference. Unless something big comes in in the last 11 precints from the Pitt area I think it's going to be Spector.
  6. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    You may be right... but in this case it is impossible to tell as the raw political calculation and the policy give you they same result. And even if Bush/Rove did play this one for politics they would tell you that it was because of policy. To do otherwise would risk upsetting their base. It is a wash all the way around.
  7. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Your right, the same thing is accomplished either way, but I do know the conversation took place and that was the reason for it.
  8. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    Out of curiosity.. how do you know the reason for it?
  9. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    The 89% is precincts reporting not actual votes, the last precints to report are usually the more rural areas that I described.

    Toomey has no chance, I'll call it first.


    If you still want to see a fight, go to pennlive.com and check the race for the 9th district. Incumbent Bill Shuster vs. spaghetti sauce heir Michael Delgrosso. Within 1/2 of 1 percent.
  10. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Since I work with the state Republican committee I have been talking with elected officials from our party and had the intial concern of not having the support of our sitting president and that is what was discussed. Those that were present at the meeting relayed the info. Also, the closeness of the campaign has beared me out in my original thinking that it would be close without the President's backing but with it it would have been a landslide.
  11. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    For the benefit of an out-of-state guy... anyone want to comment on the relative impact of the Club for Growth folks and the Bush endorsement? Did Bush give a half-hearted endorsment here? I guess I am just suprised that Toomey came this close when he was opposed by Bush.
  12. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    96% reporting
    51/49 spector
    Spector 499,731
    Toomey 483,626

    16105 difference. It's over.
  13. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    It looks like you are right about the landslide.... I guess I am still not sure how you can tell the difference between Bush doing this for policy or for politics as it seems the state committee guys would not know what is in Karl's head either... but it is probably not important in any case.
  14. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    In a matter of political speak he wasn't opposed by Bush. It's just that Spector was endorsed by him. As I said earlier there were alot of other things that played in here. One was that Sorros had given money to the group that supported spector and that helped to initially close the gap. After that people really started to hear what Toomey was all about. That closed the gap even more. But Spector has spent over 10 million dollars on his campaign to Tommey's 3.3. That is a big difference in dollars for the relitive slim margin of victory that he apparently will have. The bright spot is that the part is hoping that this serves as a wake up call for Spector and his abysmal voting record in the senate. In the end this is what the party was hoping for.
  15. Brokejumper

    Brokejumper New Member

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    Do the Toomey numbers count the Club for Growth/527 spending?
  16. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    With 97% now in 51/49 Spector and he has been declared the winner.

    Spector 511,769
    Toomey 494,695
    17074 Diff.
  17. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    I don't believe so.
  18. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    A lot of people on the far right felt betrayed by both Bush and Santorum. Supporting "Benedict Arlen" left a bad taste with many. I understand that it was a pure political move on the President's part, but many on the fringe don't see the big picture.

    The Club for Growth was somewhat effective, definitely a shot across the bow of other "moderate" Republicans (Chaffee) to tow the line a little better.


    I control a 527, so I couldn't get too intertwined with either Toomey or Delgrosso, but this does show that the Campaign Finance Reform Act may just be the biggest joke foisted upon the American people since "New" Coke.
  19. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    I agree the CFR is a joke and it truley only serves on party when the relative numbers are applied.
  20. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Joe Paternos son won his race today as well, but that was a six way race for the congressional seat and it was close as well.

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