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Polls show Obama-McCain race tight as campaign begins

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Doomsday101, Jun 5, 2008.

  1. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    CNN) -- A poll of polls on Thursday showed John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a virtual dead heat as the presidential general election campaign got under way.

    Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, held a narrow 2 point lead over his Republican counterpart among registered voters, 47 percent to 45 percent, according to CNN's average of four recent national polls. Nearly 10 percent said they were undecided.

    The polls included in the sample were conducted between May 21 and June 3, all before Obama wrapped up the nomination Tuesday night. The poll of polls included recent surveys from CBS, Gallup, Pew and Newsweek.

    The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.

    Obama picked up the endorsement of the New York Democratic congressional delegation Thursday.

    Rep. Charles Rangel announced the endorsement by U.S. representatives and senators from the home state of Obama's primary season rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

    Rangel noted that Clinton has announced her support for Obama and pledged to help him win the White
    Obama kicked off his campaign Thursday in Virginia, signaling that he thinks he can bring the once-solidly Republican state into the Democratic column in November.

    He held a town hall meeting on health care in Bristol, Virginia, in the rural southwest corner of the state -- a region where he did poorly during the February 12 primary, despite his resounding victory in the state. An enthusiastic crowd cheered and clasped Obama's hand as he entered the packed high school gymnasium. Watch McCain's town hall challenge to Obama »

    "Southwest Virginia is an example of so much that is good about this country, but so many people have been forgotten," Obama said. "Washington hasn't been listening to you and hasn't been paying attention to you. And I'm here to let you know that I'm going to be paying attention, and I'm going to be listening, and we're going to make life better right here in southwest Virginia."

    Obama told the crowd that going forward, the Democratic National Committee would no longer accept money from federal lobbyists or political action committees.

    "We're going to change how Washington works," he said. "They will not fund my party, they will not run our White House, and they will not drown out the voice of the American people."

    The day will culminate with an evening rally in northern Virginia, where Sen. Jim Webb, often mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate, will make his first campaign appearance with Obama.

    Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, but for more than a year, Obama's campaign has cited the state's 13 electoral votes as part of its argument that he can turn red states into blue ones.

    McCain campaigned in Florida on Thursday, with a fundraiser and a speech to the Florida Society of Newspaper Editors.

    "This will be a long and hard and well-fought and, I believe, honorable campaign, one that is marked by respect," McCain told the editors' group.

    McCain said his proposal for a series of town hall meetings with Obama was based on a plan agreed to by President Kennedy and Sen. Barry Goldwater before the 1964 presidential election. Watch more on McCain's challenge »

    "They were friends, and they had agreed to fly around the country in the same airplane," he said.

    "I think that one thing that we can all agree on is that Americans are getting weary of politics as usual, the hourly 'gotcha' story, the spin, the back and forth that becomes part of campaigns that many times are neither educational or illuminating to the voters," McCain said.

    McCain also expressed confidence about the situation in Iraq, an issue sure to play a major role in McCain and Obama's foreign policy debates.

    "I can look you in the eye tell you it's long and it's hard and it's tough and there's a lot of hurdles to overcome, but we are winning in Iraq now thanks to Gen. David Petraeus and ... a brave young group of Americans," he said.

    McCain has painted Obama as naïve about the Middle East, especially his willingness to consider talks with Iran's president and his opposition to the surge of U.S. troops serving in Iraq, a policy McCain supported and one that he says is working.

    Obama has hit back with the charge that a vote for McCain would be a vote for a third term of Bush policies, rather than the change he says people want.

    CNN has learned that Obama will ask one of his top fundraisers, Paul Tewes, to aid in the DNC's fundraising operation, which has lagged far behind its Republican counterpart this year. Tewes will be the Illinois senator's eyes and ears at the DNC and see to it that the party and the candidate are in sync, according to Obama senior adviser Linda Douglass.

    Federal Election Commission reports show that the national Democratic Party has raised less than $76 million for the 2008 elections and spent nearly all of that, leaving $4.4 million in cash on hand at the end of April. By comparison, the Republican National Committee has raised $143 million and had nearly $41 million in the bank.

    McCain's campaign released figures Thursday indicating he set a new monthly fundraising record of $21.5 million in May. That brings his overall total for the election cycle to about $122 million, and he had $31.5 million in cash on hand, campaign spokesman Brian Rogers said.

    Obama's campaign fundraising has far outstripped McCain's. At the end of April, Obama had raised more than $272 million for the campaign to date and had nearly $47 million cash on hand, according to FEC records.

    The two rivals had a short conversation Wednesday night, according to an Obama aide. Douglass said the conversation was cordial, and both said they looked forward to a "civil discussion."
  2. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    This is going to be a very close race, right down to the finish.
  3. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    I agree. It all comes down to who can get the vote out on election day. There are many people who will talk about supporting 1 candidate or the other but on election day they need to get to the voting booth
  4. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    I used to say that but I think it will start out very close but by the end one will pull away for a significant lead. I don't know which it will be but I just think one will pull away towards the end.
  5. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Given the narrow margin of the last 2 election I think this one is just as close as both of those were.
  6. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    Again I thought that before but I just got a feeling, maybe gas :laugh2: , but I just have a feeling something will happen and one will pull away.

    Now I am not talking landslide like Ronny enjoyed, but a notable lead and viewed as the clear cut winner before the election.

    Could be McCain who does it. Maybe a bomb shell falls from Obamas past or his wifes past that pushes him down and too late for him to make a comeback. I could see Obama making a gaff that is more magnified due to it being the general election as opposed to the democratic primary.

    It could be Obama. Maybe attacks on him by some groups will cause an even greater surge from the black voters or other voters who are tired of what they view as racist attacks. Not saying McCain will spearhead those attacks, because I don't think he will, I think it will be other groups. Either way I could see some groups doing that and in turn hurting, instead of helping McCain and Obama taking a large lead.

    I just think it will be close for some time but something will happen where one surges ahead. I really have nothing to back this up, it is just a feeling.
  7. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    I'm right there with you on this. I think had Clinton gotten the nomination, it would have been a 50+1 strategy again. It would have come down to a couple of swing states and that's that.

    Obama is either going to win big or lose big. I don't believe it will be close.
  8. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    I think it is going to be a long election night because I don't see a landslide in this contest. You never know as you said if some dirty laundry comes out it clearly could swing the election but I just think that both sides as in the last 2 general election will stick by their candidate and right now that looks to be very close.
  9. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    I saw Dick Morris on O'Reilly Factor last night and we was saying that very thing.

    It'll start close and end big... one way or the other.

    I disagree, but I suppose it could happen.
  10. ZeroClub

    ZeroClub just trying to get better

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    Forget for the moment what either one of them is actually saying --

    The contrast between the younger, more eloquent, more energetic and vital Obama and the older, rather stilted and stiff McCain is quite striking. The difference is dramatic.

    That is a lot for McCain to overcome ... especially in a paired contrast.

    My best guess is that McCain's numbers are close to their peak right now, and that he'll fade.
  11. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    Oh holy moly.

    Pass me the revolver and let me play Russian roulette.

    The idea of thinking like Dick Morris is revolting to me...what a sleazy guy to think like. :laugh2:
  12. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    I don't know if anyone else will find this interesting or has given it any thought as something they will watch during the debates. However it is something I have been thinking about of late and will try to keep an eye on during the debates and general elections.

    The thing is temper and temperament.

    We all know that McCain has known to have a temper. Sometimes I see this as a good thing. Sometimes I think anyone that has to put up with politics would seemingly have to have a temper at times because of the mess it has became.
    However with that said I also know that a flare of a temper during debates can also really hurt a candidate.

    I am cures to see how McCain deals with this during debates if he makes a gaff and Obama pounces on it. I have already seem McCain's temper close to the surface in a couple of Republican debates. He controlled it pretty well but it was right there wanting to get out.

    Now Obama has played it cool as a cucumber for the most part but I think he too has a temper that could surface if he does not control himself. Sometimes I think of him in a sci-fi geek sort of way. By that I mean sometimes I see him as a Vulcan type character in some of the Star Trek series. A person that above all tries to keep his emotion in check, to control himself, to remain cool and calm on the surface, but at the same time it is a struggle that shows signs of getting out from time to time.

    I think if he makes a gaff, if some situations arise where he is attacked a certain way I could see him shedding the cool demeanor and letting the temper surface. And I think one of the things that can trigger that is his wife.

    So both have done a good job in that area so far IMO with the slight nod going to Obama. However McCain and Obama have not really faced the fire like the others have. Now that Hillary is out of the equation and we are getting ready to see it as a two man race for all the marbles...I think the press, the 527s, the parties and the blogsphere/political sites will ratchet it up.

    So when this stuff starts going, everyone keep an eye on each candidates temper/temperament. I think it will be interesting to see how well each controls themselves.
  13. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    The comment above is correct.

    When they are apart, the difference between them is not as noticeable but when they will be together, McCain will look like a very old man.

    I am sure a few people will wonder if he is up for the job due to his age.
  14. ZeroClub

    ZeroClub just trying to get better

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    I think Obama is a cool cucumber; I don't think he's just play acting here. I don't think that he's at much risk of blowing his top. He counterpunches well in response to criticism. And he uses humor effectively.

    IMO, if anything, his risk is of appearing too cool and aloof. The "ellitist" charge was/is an attempt to attribute pathology to Obama's cooler, more clinical and rational (Spock-like) personality. ... but Obama also has that charisma thing going for him - so it'll be tough to make the "elitism" label stick to him in a meaningful way.

    I genuinely liked McCain 8 years ago (I read his biography, too) and thought he was 100 X better than Bush, but McCain isn't as dynamic today as he was back then. But the plus side for him today, now that he's lost some of his intensity, is that maybe he's also lost some of his quick temper.
  15. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    I think Obama does have a temper under it and like everyone, if the right buttons are pushed, they will come to the surface. The GOP has a way of getting results in presidental elections and bringing out things in people IMO. They have been vastly superior in organization when it comes to general elections IMO.

    Now I still like McCain, but like not as much as I used to like him. I viewed him as a maverick that would work on both sides to achieve goals even if it made his party mad. The problem I have seen is that he has cozied up to bush and the GOP in pandering to his base to get the nomination. I don't care for that because it is about opposite of what he was at one time. I don't know if I could cozy up to a group that accused me of having a black child out of wed lock in order to ruin my campaign and chances at becoming president years back. I don't like how he was against many bush things but has done a 180 switch the other way on some of those very things. However the thing that bothers me the most about him is the recent GI Bill issue.

    He was one of the very few politicians that I think got it concerning the military and was actually someone that truly put the troops first. That belief has changed IMO with the GI Bill and he has turned into yet another politicans that proclaims to care for the troops but just not enough to do the right thing for them. That really bothers me about someone i really liked before. Maybe that is my own fault for thinking of him in that manner in the first place.
  16. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    When it comes to voting for a President, though, that's something that can cut both ways.

    When they're side by side, McCain will also come across as much more experienced and ready for the job than Obama.

    Voters will want someone who they think can handle the job and that will be something that McCain will certainly stress.
  17. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    A quick review of the 13 major polls taken in the last month, as shown on PollingReport.com, show Obama leading by an average of 47.7 per cent to McCain's 43.0 per cent... I make that nearly a 5 point lead for Obama (4.7, to be more precise)... and as this article notes, these polls have all been taken before Obama semi-officially clinched the nomination; he'll get a bit of a bump out of that in the next week or so...

    I make Obama up by 5-6 points right now, very early in the general election campaign... not a vast difference, still a close race... but as I've said in other posts, this is not a good omen for the McCain campaign, given that he's been able to sit back and watch Obama and Clinton trash each other these last few weeks... he should have been able to build a bit of an advantage going into the general election, but he hasn't... this, and the disparity in the fundraising between the two men, leads me to think that the GOP candidate is in a wee bit of trouble at this point...

    I believe he means it when he says that, and respect him for that... sure hope it turns out that way, it would be nice to have a campaign on the issues for a change...
  18. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    It is not my poll or my opinion. If you want to change the numbers so you feel better be my guest. My own view on polls are they have little meaning and quickly change and in the end it still comes down to not by what people say but what they do. I can sit here and say I support McCain but if I don't go to the voting booth on election day it is meaningless.
  19. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    no doubt but it isn't a job for the faint of health. Then again, Reagan was not in great shape and he was old as well and he survived eight years during which he was shot.
  20. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    According to his latest checkup McCain is in very good health. The Dems may want to be careful about comments regarding age one group of people politician know will come out and vote and have done so on a consistent basis and that is the seniors vote

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