Rafael Vela: Brady Quinn Redux?

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Cbz40, Apr 16, 2008.

  1. Cbz40

    Cbz40 The Grand Poobah

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    Brady Quinn Redux?

    By Rafael Vela

    I’ve had a horrible time putting together my picks for the NBCSports mock. I have rarely seen a year like this one, where there is so little consensus among players, even those at the top of round one.

    Go to your local book shop, pick up three or four draft publications and put them side by side. Nearly every player is dinged by at least one of the books. Case in point — Jake Long. The Dolphins are negotiating to make him the top pick overall but the Sporting News/War Room folks give him a second round grade.

    And he’s not alone. Mario Manningham tops the WR rankings in one publication but is a 2nd rounder in another. Ditto for Limas Sweed.
    And it’s not just the semi-pro draft book folks who are all over the map. I spoke to a source today who told me there’s wide variance among the NFL teams’ boards as well.

    Which means there will be a lot of surprises on draft day. It also means there’s a lot of opportunity for a team like the Cowboys, because it has two first rounders. Not only are they first rounders, but they’re strategically-situated first rounders. The drop off from first round to second-round grades will come around Dallas’ 22nd pick, which means that teams might be more eager to trade up to either 22 or 28 and get the first-round rated guy they like, as Cleveland did last year for Brady Quinn.

    I’ve been told the Cowboys could trade either one of the picks for a veteran; to move down into round two and pick up an extra high pick or for a #1 next year.

    Let’s take one popular hypothetical.

    – Detroit is in love with four players: Florida DE Derrick Harvey, Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall, the USC LB Keith Rivers and Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo. They fear Harvey will be gone when they come on the clock with the 15th pick. There was a story in one of the Detroit papers last week that the team was nervous because the Bears, who pick 14th, were flirting with Mendenhall. The Lions cut Kevin Jones and let T.J. Duckett leave for Seattle without ever contacting his agent. Their RB corps consists of Tatum Bell and Aveion Cason. They’re desperate for a quality back.
    GM Matt Millen is on the hottest of hot seats. His team toyed with a winning record last year but collapsed late and finished 7-9. He and HC Rod Marinelli know their employment clocks are ticking. Millen has not produced a winner during his tenure. Marinelli was supposed to be a defensive guru but his team finished dead last in points allowed last year. They are both living in the now.

    CNNSI’s Peter King went on Michael Irvin’s radio show after the owners meetings and said Jerry Jones had spoken to Millen about swapping a number one for WR Roy Williams. Millen apparently said he would wait to see how the draft shook out. The key point is that he didn’t dismiss Jones’ overture out of hand.

    Let’s say for argument’s sake that Detroit gets Harvey or Mendenhall at pick 15. Would they then consider flipping Williams to get a guy like Mayo to team with the promising Ernie Sims? Or, if Millen wanted to keep Williams to maximize his odds of winning in ‘08, would he consider swapping next year’s #1 and another selection for one now? If he’s fired next February he won’t care where that pick falls. And being these are the Lions, the odds are as good they’ll finish 5-11 as 11-5, maybe better.

    That’s conjecture. Here’s a factoid which could make a scenario like this real.

    The source I spoke to this morning told me that at least three teams have Michigan QB Chad Henne rated number one at his position and that he could easily go late in round one. He thinks that there could be a push by a team or teams to get ahead of Miami at pick 32 to select Henne and/or Louisville QB Brian Brohm because the Dolphins are not going to select Matt Ryan at #1 and he’s convinced they need a QB.

    Henne’s rise offers Dallas a chance for another Quinn-like deal. Watch the Rams at pick 2 and the Falcons at pick 3. If St. Louis passes on Glenn Dorsey, the Falcons may pick him and pass on Ryan. If Dorsey becomes a Falcon, Atlanta might package some of their three second-round picks to get their QB, a scenario I detailed three weeks ago.

    Also look at Miami. I read a rumor that I could not track down that Bill Parcells and Jerry Jones have discussed a swap that would drop Dallas from 22 to 32 and have the teams swap 3rd rounders; this scenario would give Dallas picks at 28, 32, 61 and 64; in other words, they would double dip at the turns of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds, just like fantasy players do. I’m guessing this is simply a proposed deal that could be triggered if Miami finds the right player on the board. Might that be a QB? Or a guy like Mayo, whom the Dolphins like?

    Right now, I’m think that Dallas will look for a RB like Felix Jones at either 22 or 28 and will move the other pick, for a veteran WR or to trade down for WR or CB talent. I’ve been told the fits at 28 are not good for the CBs and WRs Dallas likes. The James Hardys, Antoine Casons and Tracy Porters would work better about six to fifteen spots down.

    If the Cowboys can’t find a dance partner and stay at 28, do not be surprised if an OL or LB or even a QB becomes the pick. Don’t be surprised with anything they take there. What I know for certain is they won’t force the board for need.

    Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine.
  2. Deep_Freeze

    Deep_Freeze Well-Known Member

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    I could have done without reading this part.
  3. CrazyCowboy

    CrazyCowboy Well-Known Member

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    interesting read.......go Cowboys
  4. Hoofbite

    Hoofbite Well-Known Member

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    No doubt. Seemed like a waste of space really.

    "Don't be surprised"

    followed by

    "your guess is as good as mine"

    I would have rather seen him just end the thing with "I'm BSing, don't listen to a word I say".
  5. MichaelWinicki

    MichaelWinicki "You want some?" Staff Member

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    I would love to have 28, 32, 61 & 64.
  6. dbair1967

    dbair1967 Arch Defender

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    snowballs chance in hell

    he needs to put down the crack pipe

  7. Biggems

    Biggems White and Nerdy

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    I would rather see Atlanta, desperate for a QB....and we have a multiple pick trade with them....

    Dallas trades (1,486 pts)
    22 (1)
    61 (2)
    126 (4)

    Atlanta trades (1,470.6 pts)
    34 (2)
    37 (2)
    68 (3)
    98 (3)
    172 (6)

    Dallas Picks (Post Trade)
    28 (1)
    34 (2)
    37 (2)
    68 (3)
    92 (3)
    98 (3)
    163 (5)
    167 (6)
    172 (6)
    235 (7)

    Atlanta Picks (Post Trade)
    3 (1)
    22 (1)
    48 (2)
    61 (2)
    108 (4)
    126 (4)
    138 (5)
    212 (7)
    232 (7)

    Dallas goes from 8 picks to 10 picks and Atlanta goes from 11 picks to 9 picks with this trade.

    This trade works out extremely well for both teams, and still allows both to have further trading flexibility.
  8. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

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    Hmm, now that's interesting
  9. Deep_Freeze

    Deep_Freeze Well-Known Member

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    I could see that working, if we don't have the opportunity to trade up or gete a vet WR. Only problem is with this team, the quanitity of picks we gain is good, but alot of them might not make the team.

    If we did a deal like this, I would like to see us trade up those lower picks later in the second day cause the 6s and 7 might not be needed as much.
  10. Biggems

    Biggems White and Nerdy

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    well we can use this trade to get quantity....then use the extra picks to trade back up and get quality...

    i like it cause it affords us far more flexibility for the remainder of the draft.
  11. Deep_Freeze

    Deep_Freeze Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it is a good idea, especially if we can't trade up or get a vet WR. I don't like our current spots really, and do hope for a trade, up or down.
  12. Twisted Dawg

    Twisted Dawg Active Member

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    Do we have that many open roster spots available to evaluate or accomodate that many players?
  13. Biggems

    Biggems White and Nerdy

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    It doesnt matter if we have the roster spots or not......

    Players compete for positions.....

    Also, we dont have to keep all the picks.....like i stated earlier, this trade gives us flexibility to either stay at those spots and draft or to trade up or down throughout the draft.....basically from the 2nd round on, we could have a say as to how things go down....that is a nice situation to be in.
  14. Eskimo

    Eskimo Well-Known Member

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    The only problem with the scenario this year is that I don't think Brohm or Henne are as coveted as Quinn was last year. Quinn was a top-10 pick on a couple of people's draft boards which is why we got the deal last year.
  15. speedkilz88

    speedkilz88 Well-Known Member

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    I know its so ridiculus to even think its a slight possibility they draft a qb.
  16. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    I dont think we would drop from 22 to 32 in exchange for swapping 3rd rounders like the article said.

    That sounds like a rape job.

    Did I read that wrong or something, surely Jerry is not going to let Tuna rape him like that.:(
  17. ninja

    ninja Numbnuts

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    I agree totally. No way I'm dropping from pick 22 to 32 just to swap 3rd rd picks with Miami. I would drop down from the 28th pick to the 32 pick for a swap of 3rd rd picks with Miami though.
  18. Biggems

    Biggems White and Nerdy

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    Brohm is a very good QB....he played well last year, even though the team sucked. Yes he struggled at times, but his WRs did him no favors by dropping pass after pass. I wouldn't draft a Louisville defensive player, and I sure as heck wouldn't draft a Louisville WR.

    As far as Henne goes. He is a big, tough kid. He has a strong arm, but isn't the most accurate guy out there. He was also hurt by WRs dropping passes, especially in big games.

    I am not all that impressed with Quinn. He couldn't win big games. Of course, neither could Peyton, but at least he displayed a complete game in college.....just couldn't beat the Gators......but then again, few teams could in the 90s.

    Flacco is the guy that intrigues me. He has a super strong arm.....but I have never actually seen him play, other than highlights. I do not know how accurate he is or his demeanor on the field.....Is he a general? Does he have poise? Does he have that IT, that all long term NFL QBs have?

    All I want is a desperate Atlanta or Miami team, willing to give us multiple picks......and they can have 22 and their QB......I would prefer the scenario that I came up with at the top with Atlanta....
  19. big dog cowboy

    big dog cowboy THE BIG DOG Staff Member

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  20. Redball Express

    Redball Express All Aboard!!!

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    I would love to have 3 picks in the 2nd rd...along with our #28.

    To me..this is best case scenario to address our needs and not be reaching for the RB, CB or WR at #22.

    But it all depends on the scenarios ahead of us.

    We'll see.

    :starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS :starspin

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