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Republican Candidate Presidential Power Rankings - Sept. 24th

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Mavs Man, Sep 25, 2007.

  1. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    Link
    National Journal
    Updated: 2:09 p.m. CT Sept 24, 2007

    WASHINGTON - We're down to five plausible nominees and four candidates whose presence in the race lacks a purpose. Rudy Giuliani remains No. 1, in part because he's the only candidate of the top three who seems to have struck a good balance between strategy and personality.

    Note: Democrats and Republican rankings will be updated on alternating weeks. Click here for the latest Democratic rankings.

    These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling.

    REPUBLICAN RANKINGS

    1. Rudy Giuliani
    Former New York City mayor Last Ranking: 1
    He's had a great two weeks: acting like a president in London; aggressively challenging MoveOn and therefore burnishing his anti-liberal, tough-guy image; and going before the critical (and critical) National Rifle Association. And his opponents aren't lifting a finger. It's remarkable how easily they're letting Giuliani define the contours of the Republican race. BTW: Will any major Christian conservative leader endorse Giuliani before the primaries begin? If none do, what does that say about the state of the movement?

    2. Fred Thompson
    Former Tennessee senator Last Ranking: 3
    Thompson has lost the elite primary, but he's OK with grassroots Republicans so far. Which one is the trailing indicator? Can anyone tighten him up on the stump? His gaffes come one after the other, he often contradicts himself from one thought to the next, and the national press coverage has been savage. The Florida trip was a disaster; there's no sugarcoating it. An electorate begging for authencity isn't going to buy the notion that he didn't know much about the Terri Schiavo situation. And the Everglades oil drilling comment was just bizarre.

    3. Mitt Romney
    Former Massachusetts governor Last Ranking: 2
    The campaign is either struggling or simply stuck as a result of its own strategy. In fact, Romney seems wedded to a theory of the race developed in late 2006, when John McCain was ascendant, the primary calendar was less clear and the notion that Rudy Giuliani would be the national front-runner was pooh-poohed. There are a lot of backseat drivers wondering why the campaign is "hiding" the real Romney. The candidate talks to a lot of folks who aren't officially with the campaign. Ask yourself, can a bunch of Washington insiders really run an outsider campaign? Does this explain why Giuliani is having more success -- because his chief strategists are not overt D.C. insiders?

    4. Mike Huckabee
    Former Arkansas governor Last Ranking: 4
    Conservative straw poll wins might be the edge of a Huckabee renaissance -- or naissance, since he's never been higher in the polls -- in South Carolina and possibly Iowa. Still, his third-quarter fundraising numbers need to show that he has enough cash to start advertising in Iowa and try to become the surprise third-place candidate. Without that ability, maybe we should stop trying to put him in our top five.

    5. John McCain
    Arizona senator Last Ranking: 4
    By his own schedule, it's make or break time. He needs to rise appreciably in the polls -- nationally and in New Hampshire -- before November, or he will run out of money and face pressure from his friends to quit. The press is trying to write the comeback story, but has anything really changed? Doesn't McCain need Giuliani to start faltering big time for him to find an opening?

    6. Sam Brownback
    Kansas senator Last Ranking: 5
    There isn't a fourth ticket out of Iowa, unfortunately for him. It's not good when Brownback is compared to and lumped together with Tom Tancredo rather than Mitt Romney.

    7. Ron Paul
    Texas congressman Last Ranking: 6
    We wonder what the Paulines will do after the election? Send us virus-laden spam email?

    8. Tom Tancredo
    Colorado Congressman Last Ranking: 8
    He is still a single-issue candidate.

    9. Duncan Hunter
    California Congressman Last Ranking: 9
    Point made. And goal accomplished: you're more of a national figure than you were. Time to get on with it, eh? It's not good to become the only presidential candidate currently on the trail having received a subpoena. (See Wilkes, Brent.)
  2. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    Paul is clearly ahead of Brownback.

    More money, Higher in polls, larger crowds.
  3. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed...part 2 Zone Supporter

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    i don't think i care for any of 'em at this point.

    can we keep the position open till more qualified people apply?
  4. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    It's too bad we can't fill this position like we can others. If only we could place an ad with Monster or CareerBuilder, sift through the resumes and choose ten or so qualified candidates, conduct interviews, background checks, references, and then vote on it.

    Instead, we keep going back to the same two search agencies. Perhaps, rather than continue bringing in another failed candidate from the other party, we should open it up to more qualified candidates.
  5. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    what are you looking for in a candidate?
  6. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Can someone explain this comment to me? I don't get it.

    Why would any Christian conservative leader endorse Rudy? And why would the lack of any endorsement speak poorly of "the movement"?
  7. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    Are they referring to Christian conservatives or Rudy's campaign? If the latter, I understand the question. Otherwise, I'm with you.
  8. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed...part 2 Zone Supporter

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    i'd love to see someone just talk. you know, like we're in a room talking. no speeches, no pre-written generic babble, just talk to me.

    i'd like to see a candidate not get into the ugly side and just keep talking and planning how they can fix things. i'd like to believe what he/she says because i can tell *they* believe it. not agree, mind you, but believe. this person wouldn't speng their time insulting the other side or saying the other side can't get it done, but rather that they will find a way to work with all sides. i hoped bush would be more willing to do that but whether it's him NOT doing it or the rest not WANTING to do it, who knows. in the end *he* didn't get it done.

    i'd like to see someone who's held their ideals for longer than a public opinion poll and didn't wash around with drones saying whatever it takes to fear them into their support of the candidate.

    i want to hear what someone is going to do to make this country better across the board and what their plan is for doing it. gore spent his entire campaign saying "i can do better" but never *how* he could or *what* he would do.

    maybe someone who's made mistakes but has chosen to learn from them vs. trying to hide yet another political bullet.

    the ideal person likely won't apply for the "job" mostly because of the headaches that come along with it. one side hates you and wants you out of power and your own side wants you to stay with party lines.

    i'd like to see a 3rd party movement take hold and not fight on the outter edges of the extremes of the other 2 parties.

    i'm holding out for a hero in the morning light.
    he's gotta be strong he's gotta be fast and he's gotta be fresh from the fight.

    help any? to me all of 'em seem like they're pandering for public opinion vs. putting the job as mission 1.
  9. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    That could be. I just would never associate Rudy G support as a "movement"... more of an admission of inevitability or a lack of better choices.

    Social conservatives, on the other hand, are a "movement" and are frequently described as such.
  10. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    I agree that that's probably what they're talking about.

    Perhaps they meant some other kind of "movement" to describe Rudy's support? ;)
  11. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Eric,
    That is a good question.

    I am a Democrat and as thus I'd most like to see Thompson win the nomination as he would get beat senseless by Hillary. His stumbles now are pretty much self-inflicted but she'd probably have him crying. Not sure that makes her special really as he just seems easily wobbled and unnerved at the present.

    Bush won being country and simple but strong. Thompson comes off as old and weak and inconsistent thus far. His voting record is all over the place and he seems to have no clue on the issues.

    I would have voted for McCain in 2000 over any other candidate.

    I would like to see that sort of moderate fiscally with military experience were I going to vote for a Repub candidate. Someone who will protect the borders, focus on safety here not protecting big business interests with our tax dollars and who would balance the budget. To me the budget is a zero sum game. You can't spend what you don't have.
  12. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/09/dark_horse_matchup_huckabee_vs_paul/

    I thought this power ranking could use a little taste of reality.

    Ranking Paul this low equates to ranking the Cowboys behind teams they just got done beating. He is polling higher then the others (even though polling is a fudged stat), he is bringing in way, way more money then people "polling" the same as him.

    THE RNC also just announced a new event - only serious candidates are allowed. They include Thompson, McCain, Guliani, Romney, and Paul. Nobody else was invited - including Huck.

    As for Clinton, I strongly bellieve her win is inevitable as long as the GOP goes with a neo-con in this election. Dr. Paul is the only guy that would beat her and it would be rather easy IMO. His stance on the War, Immigration, and Taxes would be too much for even liberal media bias to counter. He out classes her on everthing there is to debate.
  13. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    Reality alert - Ron Paul raised over 5 million dollars in q3. He is the only republican other then Thompson to raise more in q3 then q2.

    So what does this mean? For starters, Paul is so far ahead of the other so called 2nd tier candidates it isn't even funny. Paul raised more in a single week then Brownback has raised for the year. Huck hasn't annunced his results, but I suspect he didn't do to well either.

    An honest power ranking should go:

    1 Guliani

    2 Thompson

    3 Romney

    4 Paul

    5 McCain

    6 Huck

    7 Tancredo

    8 Brownback

    9 Keyes

    10 Cox

    http://www.reason.com/blog/show/122808.html

    But the best news of all is the establishment can't remove Paul from the debates this quarter without it blowing up in their faces. Also, supporters of Kuchinich and Gravel will have to face reality - to see real change in this country jump on the Paul bandwagon, we are getting stronger and stronger, they are not.
  14. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    By the way, I got a phone poll last night from Rassmussen. Here is how it went down:


    For Rudy Giuliani Press 1
    For Fred Thompson Press 2
    For Mitt Romney, Press 3
    For John McCain, Press 4
    For Mike Huckabee, Press 5
    For a list of other candidates, Press 6

    Nice and scientific. :banghead:
  15. Yeagermeister

    Yeagermeister Active Member

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    Ok stupid question time......Why does the amount of money raised determine who is leading the race?
  16. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    It is just one of many indicators. Ron Paul also is winning or finishing in the top 3 in all the straw polls going on around the country.

    Why does a manipulated phone poll engineered by special interests get so much emphasis? And why won't they include Ron Paul in the Texas phone polls (his home state)?

    Why did I need to hit 6 to get a list of other candidates?
  17. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    It's not a stupid question.

    First and foremost, fundraising prowess is a strong indicator of how much popular support you have.

    It's possibly the best indicator, as it's a much wider sample than any poll. Also, unlike a poll, where someone is indicating their preference very passively in response to getting a phone call, a donor is making a very active and committed indication of preference by making a financial sacrifice.

    So if you can't find people to donate to your campaign, it's a pretty damning indicator of your public support.

    Keep in mind that the maximum allowable contribution is relatively low ($2300) so to raise millions and millions of dollars, you need a wide base of support. It's not like you can have a few deep-pocketed friends give you several million... you have to do this methodically in $20, $100, and $1000 baby steps.

    Secondly, the amount of money you raise is a very good indicator of what kind of campaign you'll be able to run. Will you be able to take out ads to get your message out? How big of a staff will you be able to afford? Will you be able to wage a comprehensive, multi-state campaign, or will you be limited to running in just a couple of the early states like Iowa and New Hampshire?

    It's hard to take a candidate seriously if they only have enough money to have a shoe-string operation and are only running in Iowa.


    I may be biased since I'm a political fundraiser, but I've always felt that money raised is the best indicator of who's going to end up winning.

    That's why I've thought for three years now that Hillary is the odds-on favorite. She'll raise more money than anyone, and in the end, that's hard to overcome.
  18. Yeagermeister

    Yeagermeister Active Member

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    I didn't know about the max only being $2300. It makes a little more sense because I was thinking why couldn't someone just donate a million to make their candidate look better.

    Thanks Eric and DW
  19. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    No problem.

    I will add that there is one exception to this. If you are personally very wealthy, you can give your own campaign as much as you want. But it has to be your own money.

    Mitt Romney has given his campaign several million dollars from his own fortune.

    But that's why a guy like Bloomberg is talked about as a potentially serious contender. Even though he has no public support and wouldn't be able to raise 10-cents under normal circumstances, he does have billions of dollars at his disposal to run a campaign.
  20. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    Don't thank me, DW is the man that knows this stuff. I've been an outsider for quite some time - I finally have a candidate that excites me.

    Hillary is raking in the money - but her numbers come from 70k unique donors. Ron Paul brought in less then 1/5 what she did, yet the number of his donors was 125k.

    Unless Hillary can find more people names Hsu, her numbers may drop off substantially in Q4.

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