Robert Griffin III: What are you seeing?

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by realtick, Nov 3, 2011.

  1. realtick

    realtick Benched

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    I've been critical of Griffin as a legitimate QB prospect in the NFL. A lot of folks on this board are enamored with his guady numbers (although he's been coming back to Earth the past few weeks), intelligence and athletic ability.

    My take on him remains the same. He's a great college QB but not anything close to an elite NFL prospect. The type of game he's playing at Baylor does not easily translate well to the NFL. He operates primarily in a shotgun spread/option set which involves quick throws, bubble screens and very little reading of coverages, or locating 2nd/3rd route options. He seemingly adequate arm and delivery, but is a bit deliberate and mechanical in his setup.

    I recorded his last game against Oklahoma State.

    His numbers on paper look pretty impressive: 33 for 50, 425 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

    However, what those numbers don't tell you is that by my count 21 to 23 (perhaps more...) of those throws went for three yards or less, in some form or iteration of a bubble screen to his wide receivers.

    It was laughable. So much so that even the broadcaster said that they should pass a rule limiting the amount of times a team can run a bubble screen.

    What is attracting to me about RGIII is his intelligence. I give him the benefit of the doubt to figure a real NFL level offensive scheme out. However, I don't think he's a potential Top 10 pick, nor am I even sure he's a definite 1st rounder.

    How about you?
  2. Dawgs0916

    Dawgs0916 Will the Thrill

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    Lol, I just should stay out of this thread :)
  3. TheCoolFan

    TheCoolFan Well-Known Member

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    He's still got a long way to go. If he comes out this year, there's no way he's a Top-10 pick. He'll be behind Landry Jones and Matt Barkley. I think he'd go in the 15-25 range, which is probably the best situation for him. He needs to sit for 2-3 years...if a team drafts him expecting him to start from day one, it could be ugly early on.

    I wish we could see him play more in a pro style offense because it really is difficult to get a read on him in that spread offense. It seems like he's gotten TOO comfortable in that system and it's thrown off his pocket presence and footwork to the point where he holds onto the ball way too long.

    I agree about his intelligence though...he seems pretty adept at identifying blitzes. With all that in mind, I'd like to see him return for his senior year
  4. RS12

    RS12 Well-Known Member

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    If this team drafts mid to late teens like I expect, I would not be suprised if they drafted him if he were there. He is actually a pretty accurate passer and his athleticism is certainly not in question.
  5. realtick

    realtick Benched

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    Great points.

    If he comes out this year I think at best he's at the back end of the 1st round (#20 or beyond). Like you said, he's at minimum a year or two away from contributing as a starter. A better team at the end of the 1st round may be able to afford to sit him for awhile.

    You're right about his footwork (I called it his "setup"), as it's almost robotic deliberate dancing; takes the shotgun snap; fakes the handoff/jabstep; kicks his left foot out; throws.
  6. casmith07

    casmith07 Attorney-at-Zone

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    If he's available at the back end of the 1st round I hope we draft him and never look back.
  7. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg That gum you like.

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  8. reddyuta

    reddyuta Well-Known Member

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    Yes please.
  9. supercowboy8

    supercowboy8 Well-Known Member

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    I was saying this a month ago. Griffen is a QB that plays in alot of dump offs and deep balls. Same as Cam Newton at Auburn and is now doing in Carolina. I asked people to show me a video of him trowing the ball on a rope over the middle on the 2nd level but noone could. Same thing I'm still saying about Newton.

    Now I do like Griffen and Newton, both are very similar players but Newton has a better build and played in a better confrence in college and won the championship.

    I don't think Griffen is NFL ready to be a elite day one NFL QB, but he is very smart, responsible, and work hard. You give him two years to develop and learn the NFL he could very easily be an Elite NFL QB.
  10. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Last year I was more critical of Griffin this year have seen more of him I have been impressed with him. No doubt the style of offense leads to a lot of bubble screens but on certain plays where he is asked to hit the slants, the crossing routs the deep out the kid has been able to put the ball on the mark with a lot of zip behind it. His deep balls down the field have been very accurate with seem to only need a flick of the wrist to get it there.

    I think compared to some of the other QB like Luck or Landry that Griffin will require more time because of the offense he is coming from but I think the kid as excellent talent and will be a very good QB at the next level
  11. BraveHeartFan

    BraveHeartFan We got a hat. I want a ring.

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    I really can't make up my mind on him to be quite honest. At times I just don't think he would translate his game at Baylor to the NFL very well and then other times I feel like he just might turn out to be a pretty darn good pro QB.

    I'm just not sure what to think of him yet.
  12. drawnstripes

    drawnstripes Benched

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    Absolutely not

    hope he goes to Wash

    watch out its Bubble Screen Griffin
  13. Chocolate Lab

    Chocolate Lab Run-loving Dino

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    Same here, but unfortunately he won't be.

    We've had this discussion on Griffin before. You can't judge him on what he is now; it's all projection. He's improved his throwing tremendously to the point that he's now very good at it after being mainly a runner when he started. He's got a strong and a quick arm, and he's accurate. There's little reason to think he won't continue to improve.

    You can't hold it against him that he plays in the spread. Or that Baylor is terribly outmanned practically every week.
  14. realtick

    realtick Benched

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    You don't hold it against him personally, but it most certainly factors in how he projects as a pro and his draftability.

    A large part of why Andrew Luck is projected as a no-brainer to be the no. 1 overall pick is that beyond his production, physical ability and success at the college level, is the fact he plays in a pro-style offense and is responsible for much of the play-calling of the offense.

    There are not a lot of gaurantees with RGIII other than he's very intelligent and is a hard worker by all accounts. But it should be mentioned that Alex Smith scored one of the highest Wonderlic scores of all-time, is/was a tremendous worker at Utah, but also came out of a pass/option spread in college. It's now what, five or six years since he was drafted and the 49ers are just now seeing good play out of Smith as a busdriver.
  15. Chocolate Lab

    Chocolate Lab Run-loving Dino

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    But it's dumb to downgrade a guy for the offense he plays in at college unless you think he can't make the transition. Maybe some QBs are so slow you think they can't drop back fast enough from under center, that they have to be in shotgun, but Griffin won't have that problem.

    I mean, sure you have to project more when a guy doesn't play in a pro-style offense, but that shouldn't have any bearing at all on his final grade.

    And Griffin is 100x the talent that Alex Smith was. I actually liked Smith in college but Griffin has a way better arm, and of course is a better overall athlete.

    My biggest concern with Griffin would be his height. But IMO the biggest factor for a pro QB is accuracy, and from what I've see Griffin is very accurate on slants and crossing patterns.
  16. drawnstripes

    drawnstripes Benched

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    well I hope he goes to Wash

    hes no Cam Newton

    an he's probably is 6 not 6'2"

    there no way this a body of 220 guy - he looks like Dennis Dixson

    this my last post on this scrub - IMO

  17. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    I don't see him as a sure thing but that can be said about most of the prospects. As for Smith he has had problems he has also had to contended with OC after OC as the system continues to change on him.

    It is hard enough on young players coming into the NFL but when the organization constantly changes it becomes hard to learn a system and become good in it.
  18. Chocolate Lab

    Chocolate Lab Run-loving Dino

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    Why did you change your username? Other one get banned?
  19. realtick

    realtick Benched

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    I don't blame teams for being skeptical of college QBs coming out a spread/option scheme. NFL teams have been burned by these QBs failing to evolve at the pro level (Andre Ware, David Klingler, and I would include Alex Smith name a few). Those guys were drafted high, but the evidence also comes from successful college stars who were t drafted high (or at all) who never became anything such as Graham Harrell, Kliff Klingsbury, name your favorite Red Raider of the past 8-10 years.

    Vince Young was found great success at the college throwing quick slants and comeback routes. Beyond that, the biggest learning curve is in reading NFL coverages and learning to wait and sit in the pocket, let their receivers make their second/third move in a route and deliver the ball.

    I won't debate it if you like RGIII, that's your opinion and right. Just know that I've had numerous conversations over the years regarding players some folks thought were "different...more talented...just winners" like Harrell, Troy Smith and Vince Young.
  20. Chocolate Lab

    Chocolate Lab Run-loving Dino

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    I think things are getting confused here. Kliff Kingsbury and Graham Harrell didn't suck because they played in the spread... They sucked because they had lousy arms, were too small, didn't have it mentally, etc. -- the same reason college QBs from pro systems fail.

    Sam Bradford played in the spread at OU. Does that mean he can't play in the NFL? I don't think so.

    What if Troy Aikman had stayed at Oklahoma and ran a lot of option. Would that have made him a worse pro? I can't imagine you think so, but maybe you do.

    It seems like you're mixing college stats, which obviously get inflated in any offense that passes all the time, with projecting a QB's ability talent to the NFL.

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