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Romo 3rd down stats

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CaptainMorgan, Nov 15, 2013.

  1. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    If you're talking about the 2007-2011 Romo then yes, he was much younger QB and had a lot more durability during those times.

    Romo still has great awareness, the ability to evade pass rushers and extend plays, but it's just that he cant take hits anymore like he us to. The problem is we have a very inconsistent offense line, which causes problem for our aging QB because it makes him doubt the line. At least that's what I believe. I've seen him multiple times now where he has hurried throws when he had plenty of time, and also I've noticed he doesn't really step up into the pocket on deep throws.

    I'm not sure I can really fault Romo for not trusting his offensive line, especially when you look at what he's been dealt with his whole career here.
  2. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    Actually, now that you've posted your source, it's very clear what the problem is.

    Most of our 3rd downs are 3rd and long, which essentially takes out the threat of a running game, especially when we don't have a running game to begin with. This allows the defense
    to play strictly the pass, because they know 99% of the time we're passing in that situation.

    This is a very misleading stat on the surface, but as you break it down it makes much more sense. So lets break this puppy down.


    3rd and < 3 ///// 99.0 7/13, 33 YDS, 2 TDS, 0 INTS

    Defenses MUST respect the run game here, because if they give up 3 yards then it's a first down. Therefore they're not able to key solely on the passing game, which allows Romo to be more effective because he's not throwing into the teeth of defenders.

    3rd and < 6 ///// 82.0 21/33 63 YDS, 3 TDS, 2 INTS

    Notice the pattern? The further away we get from the first down marker, the less we're going to run the ball, and the less effective our passing game will be. Defenders know this, and therefore they're just going to sell out on the pass and ignore the run completely.

    3rd and 6 + ///// 43.0 20/54 326 YDS, 0 TDS, 2 INTS

    It's not a surprise that his numbers are this bad on 3rd and long. Defenses know we're passing 100% of the time on 3rd and 6 +, that's no secret. This is what happens when your offense is not able to move the chains well, you find yourself on 3rd and long and defense know what's coming. And they shut it down 99% of the time.

    I'm sure there will still be a few clowns here bagging on Romo for these stats, but if you dig deeper then it's really not a surprise at all. Anyways I'll try to post other QBs for comparison, though it will take some time.
    Ken, 5Stars, 03EBZ06 and 1 other person like this.
  3. Gameover

    Gameover Well-Known Member

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    He was great on 3rd last season. I don't think the talent around him is is worse now.
    ufcrules1 likes this.
  4. Gameover

    Gameover Well-Known Member

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    And Troy said he didn't know what the offense's problem was.
  5. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    Can't be effective when defenses sell out on the pass because they KNOW you're passing the ball. What keeps defenses on their toes a lot of the time is the element of surprise, they're not sure whether you're running it or throwing it. All that goes out the window when you're 3rd and long.

    What is the problem on offense?
  6. Gameover

    Gameover Well-Known Member

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    I forgot we had teams on their toes last year with our potent running game that finished as the worst in team history !
    ftghb likes this.
  7. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    NFL Rank on all downs (1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down)
    (of top 10 rated passers)

    Foles 1 (1, 1, 8)
    Manning 2 (3, 2, 4)
    Brees 3 (9, 5, 3)
    Rodgers 4 (7, 4, 10)
    Rivers 5 (2, 8, 17)
    Wilson 6 (6, 3, 14)
    Romo 7 (4, 6, 34)
    Stafford 8 (16, 10, 9)
    Ryan 9 (12, 9, 18)
    Bradford 10 (8, 23, 22)

    The 1st down rating carries more weight than 3rd down because there are 34% more pass attempts on 1st down than 3rd down. (Because there are more than twice as many 1st down plays as 3rd down plays). 3rd downs make up only 21.3% of all plays league-wide, and only 19.6% of the Cowboys' plays on offense. That's the reason Romo can rank 34th on 3rd down, but still rank 7th overall.

    Which is not to say it isn't a terrible ranking, btw.
    Ken, dstovall5 and BIGDen like this.
  8. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    Last year we didn't have a problem moving the ball at all, but we had a problem scoring in the RZ. This year, we have a problem moving the ball, but once we're in the RZ we're top notch in the NFL. Therefore I'd be willing to bet (without know the stats) that this year we've had a lot more 3rd and longs then last year, which would explain the large disparity in Romo's stats.
  9. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    Also, just to let you know, our offense this year has been better then last year's offense, at least in terms of putting up points and that's what counts.

    http://cowboyszone.com/threads/sustained-drive-scoring.274170/#post-5302945

    So what do you say about that? I'd love to hear what your comment on this.
  10. Gameover

    Gameover Well-Known Member

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    dallasfan4lizife likes this.
  11. dexternjack

    dexternjack World Traveler Zone Supporter

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    The only place this years offense is better than last seasons is in red-zone scoring. That can be attributed to getting the ball deeper in their opponents side of the field as compared to last year.
  12. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    If you were to take out every teams highest/lowest scoring game, we'd rank in the top half. But keep being blind. :p

    He took out the short fields, turnovers, and all that good stuff. It's showing strictly what the offense has done, and as of right now our offense is scoring .4 PPG more then last years. It's just a strictly offensive ranking, defense and special teams are taken out so they don't skew the data.
  13. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Look how the top 4 3rd down targets split up the shares in 2013.

    Games 1-5 (Romo's rating 85.2)
    Witten 42.9%
    Bryant 37.1%
    Williams 11.4%
    Austin 8.6%

    Games 6-10 (Romo's rating 33.0)
    Williams 37.1%
    Beasley 28.6%
    Bryant 22.9%
    Witten 11.4%

    In games 1-5, 80% of Romo's 3rd down passes went to either Witten or Bryant.

    In games 6-10, it goes down to 34.3%.
    tantrix1969, Zordon and Nirvana like this.
  14. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    Basically what that says is, throw the ball to your most reliable hands darn-it!

    Nice research, and it definitely does show some of the reasons for our struggles. I think the reasons those targets are down is because defenses have started to double Dez/Witten more and are daring us to beat them else where. It doesn't make things easy, especially when Williams has been very inconsistent this year with his drops.
  15. Red Dragon

    Red Dragon Well-Known Member

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    To borrow a page from the Romo critics........those are just meaningless stats, aren't they?
  16. dexternjack

    dexternjack World Traveler Zone Supporter

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    This takes out all turnovers and punt returns(not just the ones returned from TD's)? Basically, it is only stats from starting at our 20 or from a punt that is returned for no gain?

    I find it hard to believe this years offense is better taking out the above scenarios.
    ftghb likes this.
  17. rrkr3298

    rrkr3298 New Member

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    5 wins and 5 losses
    Ky31 likes this.
  18. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    From my understanding of his post, yes that's what he did. Might wanna ask him though to clear up any confusion, I could've misread it wrong but that's how I perceived it.

    I agree, but it just points as to how well we actually are doing in the RZ. We're not getting in the RZ often with long drives, but when we do we usually don't play around.

    I'd be really excited if football fields were only 20 yards long, but sadly they're not ... :(
  19. Nirvana

    Nirvana Well-Known Member

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    So maybe Miles Austin is more valuable than we thought?
    ftghb likes this.
  20. DandyDon1722

    DandyDon1722 It's been a good 'un, ain't it?

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    We'll looks like you got your answer he's not as efficient on 3rd and long - go figure.

    Percy flat out owns people in this place.

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