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Salary Cap Estimate for 2013

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by xwalker, Jan 16, 2013.

  1. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for reviewing in detail. You are correct.
  2. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    I've updated the spreadsheet with the correct rollover.

    The estimate is now 18M available for Free Agents if they sign Romo to a new contract and do simple restructures with some of the top contracts.

    I also added the numbers for what it would look like without any restructures, cuts or a new contract for Romo. This number is -24M.

  3. Sandyf

    Sandyf Active Member

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    Excellent job and probably closer than any of us believe at the moment. Nice thing is that XWalker can adjust it once cuts have been made and contracts resigned or restructured.
  4. newnationcb

    newnationcb Well-Known Member

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    Yes! And I did say the effort is remarkable. Bu you can't frankly say after reading this you're not still waiting for Adam's numbers.

    It's the same way if someone made a spreadsheet about player's combine numbers I'd still wait for Xwalker's.
  5. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I'm waiting for Adam's numbers also.

    This is just an estimate. There is no way to get perfect numbers at this time because it includes predicting things like Romo's new contract.
  6. Dallas

    Dallas Old bulletproof tiger

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  7. dogberry

    dogberry Well-Known Member

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    Army Lion at the Ranch had a quote that the team has Connor penciled in as the starting SAM.

    I had Connor's money spent some where else. Back to the slide rule.
  8. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Adam will have the exact #s -- but this isn't brain surgery. It really not so complicated for anyone with basic math and critical thinking skills. Oh yeah, and the effort level required to put them all together.
  9. hra8700

    hra8700 Active Member

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    Nice job with this.

    I don't think well do much in free agency this year. Not because we can't restructure, but because we got a lot of top end players in the 2010-2011 drafts. We were able to sign all those free agents last year because we didn't get any good players in 2008-2009. If you look towards the future, pushing too much money back and spending more of it now is going to cause problems.

    2014 fa: Sean lee
    2015 fa: dez Bryant, Bruce carter, demarco Murray, Tyron smith

    Out of curiosity, what did you estimate romos contract as?
  10. cannonball44

    cannonball44 Stephen Peterman's Campaign Manager

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    i pray that we're smart enough to extend Bryant, Carter, and Smith before they reach "Top dollar" status.
  11. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Nice job.

    I think many of your estimated re-structurings and re-signings are a tad rosy.

    Sensy, Scandrick for sure.

    The rookies and the last 6 players under contract should probably get 10% inflation raises. The minimum rises each year.

    I'd guess the real number is closer to 10m in space. If we give Spencer 5m of that in year 1 of a new deal; that has me about where I am mentally. 5m total cap dollars for 2013. Probably used to find one key role player that can start for us with some wiggle room cash in case we have to sign a street free agent vet or 3 during the year.
  12. burmafrd

    burmafrd Benched

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    that sounds more likely. That extra $5 million Mara tax really hurts this year; that is one good player we could get right there.
  13. Hostile

    Hostile The Duke

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    Woo hoo!

    That's how much I said we'd be under. I am learning this weird math stuff. Between you and Adam I am going to become a B student.

    Thanks. :D
  14. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    So you think we aren't cutting anyone?
  15. bkight13

    bkight13 Capologist

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    Thank you sir for the effort. I was looking all over for comparable numbers and it is tough to find good info.
  16. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    I agree with his releases. I question the restructurings as noted above.

    Specifically I believe Carr will cost us more in 2013 (by about 2m). Also believe Sensy and OS cost more than listed (4m total).

    Add in 10% to the rookie class and 10% to the bottom 6 (another 1m).

    I sit at ~10m under the cap AFTER cutting the same guys. ((Tho I doubt we cut Spears unless we draft a guy very high at DT))

    if we can't cut Connor because we need the LB depth and we can't cut Spears because we are thin at DT we are in a tighter position for sure.
  17. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Let's look at Carr. He is due 14.3 mill for next year. That is guaranteed. We can take 13 mill of that and give it to him as a SB. That spreads 2.6 mill over the next 5 years of his deal (he has a 5 year deal with a 6th year option). That takes his cap hit from 16.3 mill down to 5.9 mill. (I see that xwalker is estimating it a little differently, but we are both basically at the same value). Where are you getting the extra 2 mill from?

    Connor obviously isn't staying at a 3 mill base. We need depth we won't pay that much for it.

    Why do you think Sensy and Scandrick cost more? Sensy signed a "big" deal that had a small SB and is massively backloaded. The restructure here would save us about the same amount as cutting him (another possibility). Scandrick we likely leave alone unless we really need the money.
  18. MichaelWinicki

    MichaelWinicki "You want some?" Staff Member

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    Even if the Cowboys had $10 mil of cap space for free agents, that would still be enough for a guard and a couple d-linemen.
  19. Hostile

    Hostile The Duke

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    No CBs?
  20. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    A ten percent increase would be $400K for all 6 draft picks.

    In reality, the salary cap increases from 2011 to 2012 for picks 18, 50, and 82 were 0.49%, 2.4% and 1.99%.

    Pick  Year  Base Salary   S. Bonus      Cap Hit   Change %Change
    18    2011    $375,000    $1,144,540  $1,519,540  $7,412   0.49
    18    2012    $390,000    $1,136,952  $1,526,952        
    50    2011    $375,000    $326,000     $701,000  $16,855   2.40
    50    2012    $390,000    $327,855     $717,855        
    82    2011    $375,000    $146,517     $521,517  $10,373   1.99
    82    2012    $390,000    $141,890     $531,890
    I'll double-check all of the restructures. I need to look up the exact veteran minimums for each player based on years of service in order to get the exact number.

    The exact number for DeMarcus Ware would be $9,115,083 not $9,000,000.

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