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Salary Cap Estimate for 2013

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by xwalker, Jan 16, 2013.

  1. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    I doubt that reporting and workout bonuses are going to hit the mill to 1.75 mill mark. You can argue that the numbers might be 100k higher but 1.75 mill is off the mark.

    Carr isn't going anywhere. The Tampa 2 can get by with corners who can't cover -- but it really thrives with guys that are great in coverage. Barber, Tillman -- those sort of guys could play in any defense, just like Carr.


    That's just not accurate. Cutting Connor saves us 3 mill dollars. Is anyone giving Sims a $3 mill deal next year? Highly doubt that.

    When we convert salary to bonus we routinely add an option year to allow the money to be spread over the full 5 year limit. So it is closer to 1.4 mill in that scenario. His deal, if we keep him at all, is prime for that sort of restructure as there is very little bonus money charged against the cap (2.25 mill). He may well get cut though as his remaining guarantee and bonuses are close to wash with his base.


    Believe what you believe, I expect we will see otherwise.

    I do appreciate the perspective you bring though - a far cry from the folks who hear "over the cap" and start flipping out.
  2. cowboysooner

    cowboysooner Well-Known Member

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    I think Free and Conner know that their base money has to be at least cut in half for either to make the team next year. I would not pay Free $2mm and that is probably a minimum number to retain him.

    I can't think of another player whose play just dropped so drastically while being asked to do the same thing.
  3. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Connor could easily retire.
    He has no real need to play for the minimum unless it is his hearts desire.

    He could easily retire, skip this off-season then get a call when a team is desperate for a starter and he jumps in at 1m anyway.

    For Free he makes 7m in base. If he took 2m here he'd be certifiably insane. His contract is easier to cut then to restructure. If he has to make 2m this year he would want to do so on a 1 year deal where he could hit the bank big in 2014.

    We'd love him to give us back 16m but that isn't gonna happen. If we want him we either pay him his base in a restructure, ask him to eat a small amount of loss or let him walk.

    How often have guys taken actual pay cuts? It's really rare. Just hard to make that work once under a current contract. Much easier to start over with a new deal. That's why you see more released then resigned deals then straight pay cuts.
  4. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Here are the more exact calculations for the restructures. The ballpark estimates were off by 1.9M for the 8 players.

    As the thread title indicates, the original post was an estimate. The point is that the Cowboys are not 20M or 30M over the cap as has been reported multiple times.


    [IMG]
  5. Hoofbite

    Hoofbite Well-Known Member

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    Adams being such a tease. I know you see the bat signal, good sir. Grab your cape and cowl pronto.
  6. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    the short answer is we will see.
    the longer answer is we will see. lol.

    again we are both making assumptions... yours are just rosier.

    the tampa 2 cover 2 teams want to pay CBs far less. They value them far less. of course when they land a stud and he is a key part of the defense they try to keep them. barber has made 7m the past two seasons in tampa bay combined. they like him but they aren't trying to pay him 10m a year either.
    chicago is paying tillman because he makes a ton of plays. but they look hard at his salary every year because it is tough to fit everything you need in their 4-3 with a high priced CB.
    teams generally do not pay top dollar to cb running those schemes.

    teams with man press principles in fact do pay top dollar at cb.

    it is one of the biggest differences in the systems.
    you can go get CBs who are great in small areas and they do not need to be able to man cover for 40 yards.

    i think most cowboys fans will tell you they'd prefer sims over connor. nfl teams might not be quite there but sims seemed to earn more than the 850k he'd make at a minimum this year. unlike connor he can actually cover people. sadly he doesnt tackle very well at all.
  7. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Not trying to argue you down or abuse you in anyway.

    This is and has been good work.
    I am guarding against going too far in the opposite direction from 20m over to 20m under when that isn't very likely even if it is remotely possible.

    You know as well as I we'll have 1000000 posts suggesting we sign the top 5 free agents available as is. Just trying to keep expectations set reasonably.

    We already get mock drafts where we select 5 of the top 70 players....
  8. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    FWIW, Broaddus says he thinks Connor is the only salary cap casualty we'll see.

    I would pretty surprised if Spears isn't cut, considering he's got a $2 million base, supposedly degenerative knees and not a clear cut position in Kiffin's defense. Even if it's not a ton of cap savings, we'll have to purge some existing players to make room for additions.
  9. dogberry

    dogberry Well-Known Member

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    If Connor is cut, on the current roster is Albright the leader for SAM?
  10. cowboysooner

    cowboysooner Well-Known Member

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    I think they will keep guys around until after the draft or perhaps even a training camp cut. There may not be a reason to cut Free now, if we are not going to be active in free agency due to the upcoming Romo, Bryant, maybe Murray and Lee contracts.

    There is just no reason to pay Doug Free $7mm. If Houston cut Eric Winston who is a far superior right tackle over a $5.6 mm base, why would we keep Free for good left tackle money?
  11. Hoofbite

    Hoofbite Well-Known Member

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    I hope he's considering Free a "performance cut" then.
  12. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    Probably Albright and Wilbur in open competition. You could also probably get a Rocky McIntosh or Kirk Morrison or Geno Hayes for pretty cheap on the FA market. I dunno, considering Kiffin had dominating units with Ian Gold, Ryan Nece and Al Singleton at SLB, I don't really consider it to be a linchpin position of the defense.
  13. Bluefin

    Bluefin Well-Known Member

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    I listened to Talkin' Cowboys a little earlier today and Bryan Broaddus talked about Doug Free and other players (Jason Witten, Demarcus Ware) having clauses in their contracts that allow the team to automatically restructure.

    So Broaddus thinks Free is staying and the team will just convert a large portion of his 2013 base salary ($7M) into another signing bonus.

    I don't see that happening.

    Here's the thing, Free's 2012 base salary ($6M) was already guaranteed, so there was no reason not to restructure it to get more salary cap room.

    Free has either $8.35M or $8.99M in remaining pro-rated bonus money depending on if the 2012 restructure was spread over 3 or 5 seasons.

    Free's $7M base salary next season isn't guaranteed, so doing another restructure would be adding more guaranteed money instead of shifting it around so that it counts differently on the cap.

    Going by what was done last year ($6M base dropped to $1.2M with $4.8M turned into a new signing bonus), Free's $7M base salary this year would drop to $1.7M and the remaining $5.3M would convert to another signing bonus.

    I don't see any chance the team will add $5.3M more in guaranteed money to Free's contract after what we've seen the past two seasons.
  14. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Spears will benefit from the move to a 4-3. He is clearly just a rotational guy but he can be a 20/30 snap a game guy and we need bodies badly now along the DL. With Brent's issue we are sorely lacking along the DL anyway. Coleman is better player than Spears but he is a pure 3-4 DE.

    Spears is really very cheap. And he can probably play some SDE and some 3 technique. Neither at some high level but both at a legit NFL journeyman level.

    I do think Spears could be in trouble if we draft a guy early and then sign a cheap FA.

    But as pure numbers go he almost has to stay for now. We have like 6 signed DL total. We need to take 10 to Camp and probably want 8 or 9 on the final roster.
  15. Bluefin

    Bluefin Well-Known Member

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    Agreed on Marcus Spears.

    A straight release would only save $600K next season, but Spears' entire $3.7M and $4.7M cap numbers the following years.

    Using the June 2nd rule would save $2M next season, which could be used for signing the draft class, $2.3M in 2014 and the full $4.7M in 2015.

    I don't think Lawrence Vickers is safe, either.

    He isn't expensive ($1.3M), but $1.2M is recoverable base salary and for all the posts about poor OL play last season, FB was also to blame, IMO.


    I guess?

    Alex Albright doesn't have the speed that is so coveted in Monte Kiffen's scheme. That goes for Kyle Wilber, too.

    Big 3-4 OLBs don't fit the profile for 4-3 Tampa 2 OLBs.

    Both would be two down players only and come off the field for passing situations unless also getting tabbed as Nickel rush ends.

    One or both might move back to DE, we'll just have to wait and see.
  16. bedlamvr

    bedlamvr Member

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    Yes I am a Redskins fan - and there is nothing I like to see than another NFCE team in a Salary Cap bind although I have to say I am enjoying the Giants problems much more than your own .

    The Cowboys have the same cash creates cap philosophy the skins do you can move money around all the time by restructuring bonuses but what you run the risk of is having a player have too many of these 'restructures'

    We had it with Portis, where although we wanted to move on from him we had to hold on to him for 2 seasons more than was wise because he was just too expensive to cut .

    The Cowboys have an issue with Free . He was an excellent value LT for you and he got paid - but this last season he has looked well - poor - and out of place at RT .

    The problem is he right now costs more to cut than to keep - which takes away leverage . But you can 'restructure' his salary - it makes no difference to him - He gets to keep his money (the $7 million) but it is paid as a bonus check and that can be spread over the remainder of his contract (three years I think ..unless he agrees to add more to his deal which would add cap relief this season but will need to be paid at some point) .

    So lets say you reduce Frees salary to $1 million and spread the remaining $6 over 3 years so his cap hit would come down from the current SB left on his contract + $7million base to SB left on his contract + $1base + New Bonus of $2million - a saving of 4 million - but also increases his hit in coming seasons .

    BUT Free has done this just last season ... the club reworked Frees deal and reduced his salary to $1.2 million and created a new bonus of $4.8 for the remaining deal . This increased Frees cap hit from $9.574 to $11.175 .. the annual pro rated bonus went up from $2.575 to $4.165 . Doing that again could add $2million or more - all of which would come due when you have no choice to cut the player ...

    Having the pro-rated bonus as big as the salary is a big problem - (we the Redskins lived through this) - it is fine while the player is playing well - but sucks when the player sucks and fills up not just a roster space but a big chunk of cap ...

    Now I am not a cap guru and Adam is one of the best (and I am sure he will rip me apart on this) - and there are mechanisms to minimize the impact of some of this ... but it looks like you have some big cap problems ...

    As I say the Redskins had this (and may have it again in the future but we ate some big money deals and had dead weights on the roster to do so) and it seems nothing you do really makes an impact on the salary cap or the quality of the team .

    The point I have i really doubt the $18 million in cap space is accurate - You will have some space but not that much ... you have some tough choices to make ... most notably with Spencer - Do you give him a big deal and hope he can play up to it ... or tag him again (expensive) and hope someone steps up . And you have to look to the future - If Bryant keeps playing the way he did over the last few weeks of the season he is going to be asking for a lot of $$$$$ in a couple of years ..

    I think the Cowboys have boxed themselves in ... $5 cap penalty hurts but not insurmountable ... I don't think the cap will kill the Cowboys this year, but it will deplete your depth, where it is too expensive to keep promising young players because you are paying big $$$ to the older players re-worked
  17. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    It's all good.

    Your feedback was actually helpful. You obviously reviewed the spreadsheet in some detail and provided the type of feedback that I had hoped to receive.

    I understand about setting expectations.

    My expectations are:
    1 expensive Free Agent (could be Spencer)
    A few low to mid level Free Agents like Ernie Sims
  18. CyberB0b

    CyberB0b Well-Known Member

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    I think Spencer is expendable. We need a legit offensive lineman and safety. We could probably draft a pass rushing DE or develop one (Crawford?, Butler?), but he have more pressing needs than paying a guy who has only produced for one season and will be switching positions.
  19. jazzcat22

    jazzcat22 Well-Known Member

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    I just wait to see who they sign and don't sign.....:D
  20. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    I don't know that being a 2 down player is a huge issue though -- a LB comes off when we go nickel. It isn't going to be Carter or Lee leaving the field. Obviously you'd like that 3rd LB to be a guy who can cover, but it isn't essential.

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