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Speed, Acceleration and Agility Formula

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by InmanRoshi, Apr 6, 2006.

  1. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    Just like Kirwan's formula to combine all strength and explosioin numbers to tell a better story, I decided to add together several speed and agility times.

    I combined 40 time + 10 yard time + short shuttle + 3 Cone drill into one overall number.

    Combining all the drills into one number, it should take into account initial speed, top end speed, foot speed, change of direction, fluidity and hip movement. So if a player is a long strider who runs and good 40 time but can't change directions (or vice versa), he would be penalized for it.

    Although I think this number is more robust than a single isolated number like a 40 yard dash, this is still a very crude, quick and dirty indicator. Ideally, the times would be weighted by standard deviation. Its more more significant to have a .1 advantage over your competition in the 10 yard dash, where the standard deviation is extremely small, compared to the 40 yard dash. Ernie Simms was really hurt by this, because he really has a great 10 yard dash that was negated. Also, it would be more ideal to have some sort of ratio where you compared a player's time by his body size. Mario Williams is kind of lost in the shuffle, but its important to keep in mind he's being grouped together with people who are 50 lbs. lighter than him.

    I only did it for DE's and LB's. I combined them all together for comparison's sake, and them broke them up into positions (which also tends to group them by body type). Bobby Carpenter had to be excluded, because he only ran the 40 at the Ohio State Pro Day.

    AJ Hawk - 16.93
    Manny Lawson - 17.09
    Thomas Howard - 17.22
    Mark Anderson - 17.46
    Chris Gocong - 17.46
    Ernie Sims - 17.59
    Chad Greenway - 17.6
    DeMarco Ryans - 17.66
    Kamerion Wimbley - 17.67
    Gerris Wilkinson - 17.74
    D'Qwell Jackson - 17.79
    Mathias Kiwanuka - 17.8
    Abdul Hodge - 17.87
    Mario Williams - 17.88
    Tim Dobbins - 17.88
    Parys Haralson - 18.18
    Darryl Tapp - 18.29
    Stanley McClover - 18.4
    Kai Parham - 18.4
    Ray Edwards - 18.76

    Traditional OLB's

    AJ Hawk - 16.93
    Thomas Howard - 17.22
    Ernie Sims - 17.59
    Chad Greenway - 17.6
    DeMarco Ryans - 17.66
    Gerris Wilkinson - 17.74


    DE's and Tweeners

    Manny Lawson - 17.09
    Mark Anderson - 17.46
    Chris Gocong - 17.46
    Kamerion Wimbley - 17.67
    Mathias Kiwanuka - 17.8
    Mario Williams - 17.88
    Parys Haralson - 18.18
    Darryl Tapp - 18.29
    Stanley McClover - 18.4
    Ray Edwards - 18.76

    Inside Linebackers

    D'Qwell Jackson - 17.79
    Abdul Hodge - 17.87
    Tim Dobbins - 17.88
    Kai Parham - 18.4

    Conclusions ...

    I've always appreciate his game on the football field, but AJ Hawk really is a far superior raw athlete than I realized. If we had a broader range of historical sampling to go by, anything under 17.00 would probably be considered a freakish number for a LB (like running a 4.3 forty). I think we all knew Lawson would score well, but he really does seem to be in a class by himself as far as tweeners go. I was also impressed by Mark Anderson and Chris Gocong's numbers, both guys are much better athletes than widely believed going into the process. A lot of people say there is no way Kiwi can play 3-4, but I still say he has the athletic ability comparable to many of the other players considered to be 'tweeners' in the draft and his 38 career sacks and 65 career tackle for losses (twice the career numbers of Lawson in the same conference) are worth betting on late in the 1st round if we trade down.
  2. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    Need to look at the numbers from some top players in the NFL now and see how theirs compare to this bunch.
  3. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    Its next to impossible to find all 4 drill numbers for a player. I was able to find 3 of the numbers for Dwight Freeney, but not his 3 cone drill. Out of the players I was able to find t he data for, here's some former high draft picks and current Cowboys.

    DeMarcus Ware - 17.10
    Rocky Boiman - 17.12
    David Pollack - 17.23
    Nick Barnett - 17.40
    Jason Babin - 17.52
    Pisa Tinoisamoa - 17.31
    Daryll Blaystock - 17.69
    Odell Thurman - 17.92
    Erasmus James - 18.44
    Matt Roth - 18.50
  4. Bobo

    Bobo New Member

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    I knew Rocky was a good athlete, but that's a little suprising. Rocky! Rocky! Rocky!
  5. Canadian BoyzFan

    Canadian BoyzFan Active Member

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    Great posting and analysis.

    I enjoyed reading that. Last month I was all about Bobby Carpenter, now gimme Lawson!!!!
  6. Clove

    Clove Shrinkage

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    Lawson's 10 yard dash blows alot of Cornerbacks/Free Safeties/Wide Receivers and Running backs out the water. Plus, Gocong is the most impressive for my money.

    If you were to go by weight, Gocong blows them all out of the water. For his weight, he can flat out move. Reminds me of Merriman a little.
  7. MONT17

    MONT17 New Member

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    Hawk ran a 4.6 at the Combine.... then a 4.3 at his pro day... they both cant be right! what numbers did u use for Hawk his pro day numbers or his combine numbers? I would take both #s and put him some where in the middle!!!


    4.3 is a bit much.... reminds me of BOZ running a 4.2 (or whatever people said he ran) everywhere except when playing BO!!!
  8. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    Boz was never a 4.2; 4.4 maybe.
  9. MrPhil

    MrPhil Member

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    Great work InmanRoshi, thanks!

    I would be interested to see a listing of selected players and their scores in your speed calculations and Kirwan's strength/explosive ones. Just to see who is the overall "strongest" and "fastest" players.
  10. Clove

    Clove Shrinkage

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    It just sucks when all the players don't participate in all of the drills. It's hard to see who's really the best in the drills.
  11. Pokes28

    Pokes28 Member

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    I've been all over Gocong for a while now. But I don't want him as an OLB. He doesn't look like a 3-4 OLB. I think he'd be a phenom as an ILB in the 3-4.

    ILBs in the 3-4 tend to be more zone coverage than OLBs (good for CG as he did drop back into zone on zone blitzes). ILBs have to be able to fend off OL and make plays, this is hard to find, CG has been doing it while playing defensive end. He's big which we all know is something that Parcells likes. CG is a relentless player. To me, I see a lot of similarities to another relentless player that played DE in college that was drafted to be a 3-4 OLB in the 3rd round out of Arizona that has been the heart and soul of one of the best defenses of the last half decade.

    From Scout.com http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=106&p=8&c=1&nid=1839124
    Yes, Gocong is 20 pounds heavier, but he plays so much the same that I think it would be an ideal fit.

    David Harrell - Pokes
    dwh

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