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Video: Stats debunking the Romo myth (4th quarter comparisons)

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Dallas Cowboys, Oct 13, 2013.

  1. Dallas Cowboys

    Dallas Cowboys Well-Known Member

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  2. Prossman

    Prossman Active Member

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    I wouldn't have expected him to be rated as high as he is. Tony has thrown heartbreakers many on prime time, because Dallas is on primetime so much..
  3. JohnsKey19

    JohnsKey19 Well-Known Member

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    Good segment. Tony will never get the benefit of the doubt until he and the Cowboys have some postseason success. As the guy said, all of the gaffes are remembered while the great numbers and moments are swept under the rug. Kind of like the exact opposite of Eli - to his credit, he has 2 rings.
  4. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool Staff Member

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    What's interesting about that video is that the first comparison was "4th Quarter Passer Rating Since 2006." OK, that makes sense because 2006 is when Romo became a starter. But then they say, "If you look at situations when when the score is close, Romo only drops down to 5th" What they don't say -- but what you can clearly see in the title of the chart -- is that they've switched time periods to "since 2008."

    If you look at that same exact stat without changing the time period, Romo isn't 5th, but he's actually 2nd. Meanwhile, both Mannings move up the list considerably because of the switch. Imagine that!

    The actual numbers without switching time periods
    Highest 4th-qtr Passer Rating, margin + or - 7 points since 2006
    Rodgers 103.7
    Romo 100.1
    PManning 94.6
    Brees 89.4
    EManning 89.2

    The Switcheroo by NFL Network
    Highest 4th-qtr Passer Rating, margin + or - 7 points since 2008
    PManning 104.9
    EManning 98.8
    Rodgers 97.0
    Brees 95.9
    Romo 88.7

    Guess they didn't want to "blow our minds" too much.
  5. Red Dragon

    Red Dragon Well-Known Member

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    You're going to find that some people like to make sweeping dismissals, i.e., "High 4th quarter passer ratings are just meaningless stats if his team doesn't win every time"
  6. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool Staff Member

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    It's too late to edit, but what I should have said was that Romo's number since 2006 -- in 4th qtr or OT with the margin + or - 7 -- is 100.1. So they left out OT for some reason, in addition to leaving out the two years. And that first list is "since 2006" only for Romo and Rodgers. The other QB on that list played longer. Here is what the actual "since 2006" would look like, including overtime, with all due apologies to Peyton, but not to Eli or NFLN.

    Rodgers 103.5
    PManning 103.4
    Romo 100.1
    Brees 93.8
    Eli 91.6
  7. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool Staff Member

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    I checked the 4th qtr + or - 7pts since 2008, and I don't know how NFLN comes up with their numbers that put Eli 10 points ahead of Romo, and Rodgers so low. This is what pro football reference says:

    (min 150 att)
    Rodgers 105.8
    PManning 104.2
    Brees 96.7
    Romo 95.9
    EManning 93.2

    adding in playoff games:
    Rodgers 107.1
    PManning 102.8
    Brees 99.2
    Romo 95.9
    EManning 93.3

    adding in OT (why would you leave it out?):
    Rodgers 103.7
    PManning 101.7
    Romo 97.0
    Brees 96.9
    EManning 92.2

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