Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Zordon, May 9, 2014.
Okay, when you put it that way, I'll play you but I may have to go unlike a couple of your posts.
Actually, I expect him to play really well this year, and then for him to decline fairly steadily. And, the wheels were coming off a really, really good player. He had a lot of room to fall. I'm only talking relative to his huge salary here, too. He looked like a very good bet at the time of his extension. But once you get the neck and shoulder problems...those don't go away, and they really do interfere with your ability to play.
When you're selling your car you can spout the KBB values all day long, but in the end it's only worth what someone is willing to pay. Everything has context.
I'm convinced it's because everybody got their day two snacks all set for a few hours and then Boom! Done for the day lol
no, it's tunnel vision when you chase for NEED!!
Yeah, that's pretty much it. He and the other two charts there other than the Jimmy chart (including the Harvard chart), all came up with their own way of evaluating what you could expect from each draft position, based on historical data, figuring things like number of starts per career, number of quality starts, pro bowls, all pro selections, length of career, etc. Then they figured how much above a replacement player each draft pick was worth, in their estimation.
It is pretty cool, although like you say it probably is an approach that has its own pitfalls. All three of the newer charts came up with curves that led them to believe that the old chart - and old NFL thinking in general - overvalued high picks, and way undervalued lower round picks.
I started a thread a couple of days ago with some data by two economists that made the same argument, from another point of view, that more picks is almost always more valuable, due to risk diversification. So they and the new charters all argue that what the Cowboys did last year was smart management of resources - more players protects you from the pain of busts and the lower round players are undervalued anyway by most GM's. And they argue against what the Cowboys did today.
So anyway, just another way of looking at how you approach draft picks. I lean towards agreeing with them. That's why I didn't like the trade, even though I like Lawrence. But hey, I'm an emotional fan, so if he's a beast, I'll deny all this.
Moving up in the draft and focusing risk in fewer opportunities hurts us. That is what the Harvard analysis was talking about. All of our eggs are in one proverbial basket and we are doing a poor job mitigating risk.
I know. But we move up and down, depending on the circumstances. I'm not defending moving up as a philosophy. But it's not the reason why we lack depth, either. We've lacked depth due to injuries and a tight salary cap.
Through silver and blue homer glasses.
Inner-division premium. I'm happy with Martin/Lawrence
And unfortunately poor drafting from 2006 until 2009.
Sure there are other factors but one less top 100 player on the roster this year hurts qualitydepth just like it did in the Claiborne trade. It is horrendous risk management.
I love analogies, .. well done.
Yeah. But it helped with Frederick/Williams last year. Trading up is bad math. I'm not disputing it. Only the contention that it's the reason why we lack depth.
Weren't we supposedly wanting to trade down this year? Or trade up at a better value?
Personally I would have traded down the pick.
This is part of the win now mentality. We have to get an edge rusher this year. Can't wait for next year's draft.
There's defending the player and then you have defending the trade.
I don't like the trade. But I like the player. And no doubt the player would not have been there at #47.
The value on the draft value chart is relevant, but can't be viewed in a vacuum. If we traded up for the next "ware" then it was a very good trade. If we traded up for Shante Carver or Kavika Pittman, or Ebeneezer Ekuban then we got fleeced. Time will tell.
Isn't there an actor named Martin Lawrence? I wonder if he approves of our picks.