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Success in the draft is lower than you think.

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by nathanlt, Apr 29, 2012.

  1. nathanlt

    nathanlt Well-Known Member

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    [IMG]




    The above chart shows 7 categories, >8 Games played, JAG, Depth, Good Starter, Upper Tier, Star, and Superstar.

    Claiborne has a 100% chance of playing 8 games or more, 95% chance of being at least a JAG, 90% chance of being depth or better, 62% chance of being at least a good starter or better, 38% of being an upper tier or better, 33% chance of being a star, and only a 10% chance of being a superstar.

    This is according to historical #6 picks on the chart. When you look down at round 3 and 4, there's only a 10% chance that any of the guys we picked there will become good starters. What are we complaining about with missed picks in the 3-7th round? If Dallas gets 10 picks in rounds 3-7, they'd average one good starter there. That's nothing to worry about.

    I will say this. If the new no-name guys are outworking the present starters, despite the fact that they'll likely be cut, it makes for a productive camp, because the current guys on the roster have a legitimate fear of being out worked. They'll put in the time to show they can't be outdone, and Dallas will have a great team in the end.

    For details on the methodology of this chart, go to http://realcavsfans.com/showthread.php?38395-NFL-Draft-Success-by-Round&p=1236897#post1236897

    Very enlightening!
  2. rynochop

    rynochop Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. That's why it always cracks me up when I see people live and die over these late round picks.
  3. jswalker1981

    jswalker1981 Fact > Your Opinion

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    What is the difference between JAG and Depth? Aren't they the same, or is "Depth" a rotational guy?
  4. nathanlt

    nathanlt Well-Known Member

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    JAG - Just Another Guy; players who average at least 2.5 in Weighted Career Approximate Value* (WCAV) per season played, or who have managed an otherwise long career.
    CLE Example: Chaun Thompson, Lewis Sanders
    55% of all players drafted became at least a JAG.

    Depth - Represents below average starters or backups who contributed somewhat. Player must average at least a 4 WCAV per season played, or been a regular starter for more than half of his seasons in the league.
    CLE Example: Tim Couch, Brodney Pool
    28% of all players drafted achieved this tier.
  5. nathanlt

    nathanlt Well-Known Member

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    Yes, why get down in the dumps that your favorite 5th round guy wasn't picked. 5th round guys are most likely to play backup in 8 games, and that's about all.

    Arguing about whether or not your pet cat will be the lucky 4% that's a good starter? Please.

    And, it makes you more likely to trade up with a packaged 5th through 7th guy to get a better percentage chance of a quality starter.

    The Claiborne trade swapped a 50% chance at 14 and a 20% chance at 45 for a 62% chance of being a good starter.

    However, for being a superstar, it swapped a 5% and 0% chance for a 10% chance superstar. I'm hoping for winning those odds, but I'm not counting on it.
  6. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    I would have been OK with using all our 3rd and later picks (except the comp of course) to trade up into the second round for a guy if we had seen someone we truly believed in there.
  7. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    if you are just going by numbers by trading up you increased your chances of getting a superstar by 100%.
  8. RamziD

    RamziD Well-Known Member

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    I have to say, I was really happy with our first 2 selections. Making CB our strength already improves our passrush, so adding Crawford who can push the pocket in front of Anthony Spencer will improve it that much more.

    The only pick that frustrated me at first was Johnson in the 4th. Guy no one has heard of who initially some were saying would start the year on the PUP. Now some are staying he could win out one of our starting safety jobs and he'll be ready for training camp. The 5th round receiver has a great skill set for a slot receiver and speed to use if he makes a guy miss.

    So, overall, who know into which tier each player will ultimately fall, but I'm glad with the type of guys (RKGs) that we selected and happy that they're Cowboys!
  9. cowboy_ron

    cowboy_ron You Can't Fix Stupid

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    Dallas has done very well since being in the league at drafting unheard ofs, and small school players......the eagles draft looks like a mock they took from ESPN...chasing the name players...I feel our FO put a lot of time and effort into this draft.
  10. MidEastBeastL337

    MidEastBeastL337 Member

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    Hmmm... I always considered JAG > Depth.... Jag being just a guy who happens to start or get a few plays here and there... nothing special. Depth being guys who can step in if someone's hurt.

    If anything, there should be another tier between Depth and Good starter.. Like a just a starter... that's kind of what I see JAG as.
  11. nathanlt

    nathanlt Well-Known Member

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    Probably should have included the full explanation of the tiers, I guess not enough people are going to the original article

    The tiers are:


    > 8 GP - Simple measure; any player who plays at least 8 NFL games qualifies. All 1st round picks from the time frame qualified.
    CLE Example: Adamchinobe Echemandu, Nick Speegle
    77% of all players drafted between 1999-2006got at least this far.

    JAG - Just Another Guy; players who average at least 2.5 in Weighted Career Approximate Value* (WCAV) per season played, or who have managed an otherwise long career.
    CLE Example: Chaun Thompson, Lewis Sanders
    55% of all players drafted became at least a JAG.

    Depth - Represents below average starters or backups who contributed somewhat. Player must average at least a 4 WCAV per season played, or been a regular starter for more than half of his seasons in the league.
    CLE Example: Tim Couch, Brodney Pool
    28% of all players drafted achieved this tier.

    Good Starter - Represents above average starters. Must either average a 6 WCAV per season played or been a starter for more than 80% of his seasons in the league.
    CLE Example: Gerard Warren, Jeff Faine
    14% of all players drafted became "good starters"

    Upper Tier Starter - Average at least a 6.5 WCAV per season. CLE Example: Kamerion Wimbley, Braylon Edwards
    6% of all players drafted qualified as "upper tier"

    Star - Average at least a 7.25 WCAV per season.
    CLE Example: None. NFL Examples: Frank Gore, Jason Witten, Richard Seymour
    3% of all players drafted became stars by this definition

    Superstar - Average at least a 9.25 WCAV per season.
    CLE Example: None. NFL Examples: Phillip Rivers, Edgerrin James, Ed Reed
    1% of all players drafted became stars by this definition

    Note: Brodney Pool was mentioned by name as a JAG when this draft analysis was done in December, as a below average starter when compared with other starters from 1999-2006. Hopefully he has improved in the past 6 years, he must have.
  12. Aikbach

    Aikbach Well-Known Member

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    Heck first rounders flop a lot too, just ask San Francisco and the Redskins about the last 15 years, SF has been lousy at drafting dating back to Jim Drucenmiller if not JJ Stokes and Washington hasn't hit a home run in the first dating back to the disappointment of Desmond Howard.

    Champ Bailey their only pro bowler, whom they traded away for peanuts and Chris Samuels who's injury prone body shortened his career, RG3 might be their opportunity to draft a long term star for the first time in over 20 seasons.

    San Francisco meanwhile can only point to Vernon Davis as a success, despite half their present starting roster being drafted in the first round, littered with laughing stocks like Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree.
  13. nathanlt

    nathanlt Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the percentages of a long career bode well for running quarterbacks. Vick is beating the odds, I think.
  14. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    That's what is crazy about The Ticket's criticism of the draft. They keep repeating over and over again that good teams routinely come away with 3 immediate starters in every draft. It's complete nonsense and untethered to reality.
  15. Duane

    Duane Active Member

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    I generally really like The Ticket's coverage but it was horrible this year. Fair criticism of the team is one thing but all out bashing is something else entirely.

    I finally switched over to the War Room's audio with Mickey and the other guys from 105.3 The Fan.
  16. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    Yeah, I'm okay with bashing one pick or one move, but they couldn't ever get composed and move on to covering the rest of the the draft for the listeners. They let the hatred of the Claiborne trade completely derail them for the next 3 days. Everything from the rest of the draft forward was nothing but snide jokes about every pick made, including from Norm who should be better than that. Completely and utterly unprofessional, and a waste of everyone's time.... theirs and ours.

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