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Summer's Dallas mock draft (no trades)

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Bob Sacamano, Jan 12, 2007.

  1. dallasfaniac

    dallasfaniac Active Member

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    I've never gone by Kiper's rankings. He's just as bad as some of us who only spend maybe a couple hours a week rankings players.

    Heck last year he had both Jason Avant and Elvis Dumervil in his top 25, projected as first round picks. Both went in the 4th round. Jason has 7 receptions on the year for the receiverless eagles and while Elvis Dumervil has 8.5 sacks on the year, he has yet to start a game and only comes in on obvious passing downs.

    I personally have Kyle Young as my #1 center, but that's only because I like the big nasty centers. He's Andre Gurode with more muscle.
  2. dallasfaniac

    dallasfaniac Active Member

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    Smith would have to play well in an all-star game for me to spend more than a 6th.....
  3. BigWillie

    BigWillie Well-Known Member

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    If Smith is healed (he says he is), then to grab him even in the 2nd would be a steal. He was a late 1st - early 2nd type before his injury. Honestly, one of the better pass rushers in the nation.

    He was almost ready for their bowl game against Oregon State, so maybe that is a good sign.

    Even so, if Smith is still struggling a bit from his injury, I would still take a risk given his talent level. With a draft so thin on big-time pass rushers who could fit in a 3-4 scheme, I would definitely be willing to take a risk on a player like Smith early.
  4. dallasfaniac

    dallasfaniac Active Member

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    I guess that's where we disagree. I think a first day pick is too risky. He will be converting from DE to OLB where he will be asked to cover and is reported to run a 4.8 which is slow for 240. He has had a meniscus tear and still recovering from a fractured hip. Statwise, he wasn't even as good as other DEs that may not even be drafted. I just see Smith as having too many questions for me.
  5. BigWillie

    BigWillie Well-Known Member

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    Lets not get into a 40 debate. With a pass rusher, you are more concerned with a shuttle time than a 40. It is honestly one of the most useless things you can bring up when talking about pass rushing skills.

    Also, two other things you bring up that aren't that important.

    One is his stats, as he was injured from the middle part of the season on. Before his injury, he was the leading sack man in the NCAA. So I would say his stats match up well with anyone.

    Also, a meniscus tear isn't a serious injury. You can actually play with that injury, granted you can withstand the pain. It's just simply the cartilage between the bones in your knee being torn. The two bones will rub causing pain, but it doesn't limit you all that much really and recovery is not something that will constant future issues.

    But I will agree in the fact in changing from putting your hand on the ground to standing up may be an issue. But isn't that what most 3-4 OLB's have to make an adjustment to when coming from college to the NFL? It didn't seem to hurt our own DeMarcus Ware. ;)
  6. dallasfaniac

    dallasfaniac Active Member

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    He will not be rushing the passer on every down, he will be asked to cover TE and WR out of the slot and RB out of the backfield. At that point, 40 speed does come into question. Granted he is not slow, but we don't know how the fractured hip and meniscus tear combined will do to his speed. Plus, coming off an injury it might be a few years before he gets into playing shape.

    4 of his sacks came via Chris Nelson at New Mexico who gave up 8 on the game. The lobo's gave up multiple 5+ sack games throughout the year.....

    I would prefer Dan Bazuin who has better stats, speed, and size. He had a down year last year with 10.5 sacks due to his brother passing away and having his toe go all sepsis on his arse. Imagine trying to play when you are in constant pain, your thinking is slightly cloudy and your muscles are weak....

    Dan is projected as possibly a first day pick and in many circles is rated much more highly than Brian Smith.

    I like Smith, but am overly cautious regarding his health and ability to change positions as you can tell. I would really need to see him show well in a game or combine before using anything more than a 6th...
  7. BigWillie

    BigWillie Well-Known Member

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    40 times is still not an issue. If it was, you wouldn't see a player like Terrell Suggs having so much success at this level. Even still, you do not need a quick 40 times to cover RBs. More times than not, when an OLB picks up a RB, it is for a chip or to cover the flats. For TEs, it is almost the same, except when deep middle patterns are run the OLB will get safety help over the top.

    So again, 40 times are VERY useless.

    That isn't even mentioning that his 4.8 forty is a bit off, as I have seen him listed by Scouts INC., as running a 4.65 forty.

    Even so, Smith has been a great pass rusher for his entire career. IIRC, he was only a few sacks shy of being the Big 12 all-time sack leader before his injury. It also took him only 3 seasons (only one as a starter) to break the Bengals Justin Smith's school sack record. I would guess a man with 31.5 career sacks in only 1 1/2 years starting is a pretty good pass rusher. :)

    Also, why was an injury from 2005 (meniscus tear) brought up? He played the entire season with that injury and put up the following stats, even with the enormous pain ...

    66 tackles, 17 TFL, 9 sacks, 2 FF, 5 PBU, 1 INT

    Also, I choose not to look at where stats come from in one game to the next as you had shown with the New Mexico game. That was the same HUGE knock we had on Shawne Merriman, but I'm guessing we would all love to have him pressuring QB's now for us.
  8. nicodywill

    nicodywill New Member

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    woodley WILL NOT fall that far you can be certain of it nice try though
  9. dallasfaniac

    dallasfaniac Active Member

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    First to Merriman. He is a great player, which is why he was a first round pick as opposed to second day, but he didn't even show up against New England and other good teams.

    9.5 of his sacks came against 3 of the bottom 5 teams in regards to sacks allowed. Oakland allowed 72 on the year; no surprise that Merriman got 3 on the game. Yeah, Ware faced Detroit who is also in the bottom 5 of the league and 'surprisingly' he put up 3 against them too. It's easy to rack up sacks against those teams.

    I think if Ware would have gone to San Diego he puts up the same or better numbers as Merriman because he would not be the focus on defense like he was here.

    The meniscus and 40 times ARE valid when added to recovering from a fractured hip. When evaluating a player, you have to look at all questions as a whole, not seperately so that you can write them off.

    Looking at Brian Smith's stats for 2006 when he was leading the league, he had 7.5 in 8 games. That's like 13 for the year, 62 if he played the Lobo's each week. :D

    Like I said, I like Smith, but fresh off a fractured hip I would need to see something leading up to the draft to show that he has recovered and retains his speed, otherwise I would have to spend a definite second day.
  10. Bob Sacamano

    Bob Sacamano Benched

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    Shaun Phillips ran a 4.85 at 250lbs.

    just something to think about
  11. Bob Sacamano

    Bob Sacamano Benched

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    I thought so at 1st, after someone already brought it up, but looking at the DE prospects, I'm not so sure that your statement would be 100% accurate, here are some of the DEs that could be taken in the 1st, 2 rounds

    Jamaal Anderson
    Quentin Moses
    Charles Johnson
    Gaines Adams
    Jarvis Moss
    Woodley
    Anthony Spencer
    Dan Bazuin
    Ikaika Alama-Francis
    Victor Abiamiri

    not all will be gone by the time we pick in the 2nd IMO so Woodley could very well be there

    but I will admit that having Kyle Young, Paul Sialoi and Brian Leonard as low as I have them would be a stretch, but again, I warned you guys that my mock was very preliminary
  12. BigWillie

    BigWillie Well-Known Member

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    C'mon now, you want to cherry pick stats still? It's almost as valid an argument as saying Emmitt isn't as good a RB because he put up numbers against bad run defenses. Same thing for Troy, Michael and the gang.

    Also, how can you compare one game (New England) to Merriman? It's the equivalent of talking about how Reggie White was shutdown by Erik Williams.

    But again, why are you bringing up a knee injury from 2005 and correlating it to a hip injury in 2006? Especially when the meniscus injury did nothing to stop him from putting up great numbers from his DE position. The injuries have nothing to do with one another, and why it is even being brought up makes me wonder.

    The hip injury didn't need rehab and didn't limit him after he had healed. Heck, it didn't even require surgery. He was on crutches for 8 weeks after the injury and was prepared to play in the Sun Bowl, but Gary Pinkel thought better of it since he had not practiced in 2 months and was coming off such a freak injury.
  13. dallasfaniac

    dallasfaniac Active Member

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    With Emmitt we are talking about a career, not a single season. And I did mention 'other good teams'. I mean if I have to type out Baltimore and Kansas City I guess I will. No sacks in two games against Kansas City and getting bowled over by Todd Heap for the game winning score. But as long as he rang up 9.5 sacks against the worst passblocking teams in the NFL, rock on.

    Analyzing the stats is very important. If it had been 13 sacks against the lobos and .5 the rest of the season would you think differently? If it had been 6 sacks the entire year, but 2 against Joe Thomas would that make a difference? Level of talent faced is a big factor.

    Regarding injuries: If he had broken a finger, I wouldn't even mention it. But when it has to do with his legs, then any injury has potential to be big. He played an entire year on a torn meniscus before having surgery because he aggravated it. What kind of shape is it in now? Will he experience any lockage as many people do? Will he reaggravate it requiring cleanup? Will he experience any swelling taking the abuse of an NFL season? Will he experience pain and eventual arthritis? Awww who cares about his knee, I mean it's only his second injury to his right leg.

    He was held out of the Sun Bowl because a bone scan revealed his hip still hadn't fully healed, not because he hadn't practiced.

    I think we are diverging from the original post, which is my fault. I like Brian Smith, I really do. I even drafted him in my mock draft, I think in the 7th, which is admittedly too low. However, I maintain my stance that unless I see him in some football-like action (all-star game, combine, personal workouts, etc.) I wouldn't trust that he is fully healed and ready to go. There are many other DE/OLB that have much fewer question marks and similar stats. Until Brian shows he is back and not thinking about his injury, I wouldn't want to chance a first day pick.
  14. BigWillie

    BigWillie Well-Known Member

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    You begin to backtrack in your argument, then you don't.

    Brian Smith OVER HIS CAREER had 31.5 sacks, in which he was on pace to be the Big 12's all time sack leader. For a career, and for someone who can fit a 3-4 scheme, I would guess he is a good pass rusher. :)

    But you are getting into things that you would have to question with every injury to every player who has had an injury. Everyone COULD suffer another injury similar to the one before, but if we worried about that, we would be drafting Carson Palmer's in the 7th round.

    But this is a silly subject to pad our post count on, we can see in time about how Brian Smith develops.

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