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The code and football playoff model, 2013 version.

Discussion in 'NFL Zone' started by dwmyers, Dec 30, 2013.

  1. dwmyers

    dwmyers Well-Known Member

    2,049 Messages
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    I don't do scores, I'll do odds, win probabilities and so forth.

    The article is here:

    http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2013/12/30/week-17-stats-and-first-round-nfl-playoff-odds/

    Some notes: Seattle is ranked highest through the playoff games. San Francisco would be given the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl should they reach it. The model favors the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC, though the odds of Indianapolis reaching the Super Bowl, it estimates as about 25% currently.

    As the odds weren't pushed onto a JPEG image, you'll have to read the article to see the odds.

    My model is a static model, based on stats known to have a statistical probability of better than 95% of actually affecting playoff chances. It's a three factor model taking into account home field advantage, previous playoff experience, and strength of schedule.

    Offensive and defensive stats, the ones I've tested, only have a probability of affecting playoff chances by about 85%. They're not reliable from a statistical POV.

    Teams the model favors in the first round..

    San Francisco
    New Orleans
    Indianapolis
    Cincinnati

    D-

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