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The Cowboys are the only team in the NFL who has not achieved this goal

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CowboysFanSince88, Nov 26, 2012.

  1. peplaw06

    peplaw06 That Guy

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    No you haven't. McLovin is posting detailed formulas and statistical analysis, and you're doing the forum equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears.

    He does the work, and you move the goalposts.

    Hos: How does the 10 point benchmark correlate to wins and losses?
    McLovin: *correlating **** *
    Hos: Oh yeah? What about 14 points and a lead?
    McLovin: *correlating **** *
    Hos: What about 21 points with a lead and being at home in a domed stadium?
    McLovin: Seriously?
    Hos: See! Arbitrary!
  2. Shinywalrus

    Shinywalrus Active Member

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    If you create a categorical variable called "1H Points Above 10" and "1h Points 10 or Fewer" you get a similar R-squared.

    The flaw in the statistical analysis is that teams who score poorly in the first half tend to score poorly in the second half, but that's not really true for us. What sort of qualitative assessments could you guess at based on this?

    That we don't gameplan well, but we make good adjustments, perhaps?

    That we try and fail to establish the run in the first half but are forced into passing in the second, at which we tend to be more successful?

    Probably some validity to both.
  3. Hostile

    Hostile Tacos are a good investment Zone Supporter

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    Wrong. I simply asked how the formula he presented accounts for scoring 11+ points and still being down at the half?

    I doubt it does.

    You know what? This is beyond silly. Knock yourselves out believing 11 points is relevant to something but 10 points isn't, even if the other team scores more.
  4. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    Np, not often I get to use math geekness on forums :)
  5. Hostile

    Hostile Tacos are a good investment Zone Supporter

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    It was very enlightening and I do appreciate the work. I still don't see the relevance of 11 points, but you're the only person who made any effort at all and it was interesting. Everyone else just wants to rub old wounds.
  6. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    Degree of truth there. Like I said in a previous post, I think people remember comebacks mean reversion would submit that strong teams outscore opponents in most every quarter over time. Stronger teams perform better early and can make another team one dimensional

    However, I think there is a case to be made that usually going into the half with a lead (which means scoring points) is statistically beneficial and increases your chances of winning. The top teams always seem to be in this category.

    I tried to illustrate that teams that score early have a better record. Basically Denver is the only outlier to that
  7. Shinywalrus

    Shinywalrus Active Member

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    Well, the better question would be whether 1H scoring has any significance after taking into account total scoring output - that is to say, is scoring in the first half actually more valuable than just scoring more in general? I'm not sure the analysis showed that or not, since I suspect 1H scoring and total scoring have an extremely high correlation.
  8. peplaw06

    peplaw06 That Guy

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    It's a simple concept that you're trying to make difficult in order to fit it with your agenda. We haven't scored more than 10 points in the first half all season. We're the only team in the NFL that can say that. If you can't understand how that's not a good thing, I can't help you.

    You're trying some kind of master spin job to make it not seem so awful. It's about the most obtuse and transparent I've ever seen you be.
  9. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    The regression was first half scoring to wins. That was very strong and a little stronger than 2H scoring differential.

    I have to clean this up a bit, but here is a look at all single game data (not aggregate scores:

    In 176 games to date:
    - 99 times - Teams scoring 1st and scoring => 10 pts win 69.1% of the time (68.5/99) - one tie is in there for StL
    - 77 times - Teams score first but do not get 10 pts by halftime win 42.9% of the time (44/77)

    Of the the 176 games the team who scored first won 101 times or 57.3%

    Dallas has scored first 3 times (Car, Atl, Was) all FGs and are 1-2

    Other notables (only games where the team scored first)
    Min - 9 times - Won 6, Won 5-1 when scoring >10 in H1
    Pit - 9 times - Won 5, 3-2 when scoring >10 in H1
    SF - 8 times - Won 6, 6-0 when scoring >10 in H1
    Sea - 9 times - Won 5, 2-1 when scoring >10 in H1
    Hou - 6 times - Won 6, 4-0 when scoring > 10 in H1
    GB - 6 times - Won 5, 4-1 when scoring > 10 in H1
    Balt - 7 times - Won 6, 4-0 when scoring > 10 in H1
    NYG - 5 times - won 4, 4-0 when scoring > 10 in H1
    Cincy - 7 times - won 5, 5-1 when scoring > 10 in H1
    NE - 5 times - won 4, 3-1 when scoring > 10 in H1
    Chi - 6 times - won 6, 1-0 when scoring >10 in H1

    If I had data by scoring first TD I would assume the correlation is higher. FGs are easier to overcome
  10. tupperware

    tupperware A Plastic Container

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    Not sure why we're talking about 10/11 points. 6.6 for the first half is what we're averaging.

    Here are the records for teams that average below 10 points in the first half:

    2012

    19 Seattle 6-5
    20 Denver 8-3
    21 St Louis 4-6
    22 Carolina 3-8
    23 Detroit 4-7
    24 Miami 5-6
    25 NY Jets 4-7
    26 Arizona 4-7
    27 Cleveland 3-8
    28 Oakland 3-8
    29 Jacksonville 2-9
    30 Dallas 5-6
    31 Philadelphia 3-8
    32 Kansas City 1-10

    2011

    22 Washington 5-11
    23 Jacksonville 5-11
    24 Cincinnati 9-7
    25 Tampa Bay 4-12
    26 Denver 8-8
    27 Seattle 7-9
    28 Cleveland 4-12
    29 Indianapolis 2-14
    30 Arizona 8-8
    31 Kansas City 7-9
    32 St Louis 2-14

    2010

    21 Washington 6-10
    22 San Francisco 6-10
    23 NY Jets 11-5
    24 Houston 6-10
    25 Arizona 5-11
    26 Cincinnati 4-12
    27 Denver 4-12
    28 Miami 7-9
    29 Seattle 7-9
    30 Minnesota 6-10
    31 Buffalo 4-12
    32 Carolina 2-14

    2009

    21 Seattle 5-11
    22 San Francisco 8-8
    23 Detroit 2-14
    24 Chicago 7-9
    25 Buffalo 6-10
    26 Denver 8-8
    27 Cleveland 5-11
    28 Washington 4-12
    29 Oakland 5-11
    30 Kansas City 4-12
    31 Tampa Bay 3-13
    32 St Louis 1-15
  11. peplaw06

    peplaw06 That Guy

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    By my math that's 4 out of 47 teams have a winning record when they average below 10 points in the first half.... or 8.5%.

    To put it in perspective, in order to get to an average of 10+ points in the first half for the season, we would need to average MORE than 17 points (17.4) for the first half of our last 5 games. Out of 22 total halves of football, we have done that exactly 4 times so far... or 18% of the time.
  12. DallasCowboys2080

    DallasCowboys2080 Member

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    i might be wrong but it seems that you are being way too literal and missing the essence or symbol behind the concept here.

    cowboys are consistently scoring too low in the first half.

    it could be 10 it could be 6 it could be 13 who cares. its consistently not enough scoring going on in the first half and it puts them behind and playing catch up in the second half. not just one game not just two games not just a handful but a lot of them.
  13. Hostile

    Hostile Tacos are a good investment Zone Supporter

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    Yes sir, but thank you for at least replying in a civil manner.
  14. DallasCowboys2080

    DallasCowboys2080 Member

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    no probs.

    so it is a very literal thing here than? the point or crux of the argument hangs on a literal point?
  15. Hostile

    Hostile Tacos are a good investment Zone Supporter

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    I don't know. McLovin was the only one actually trying to make a correlation and I really just think it is one of the most arbitrary things I have ever seen. I gave two scenarios I considered to make more sense and they got skipped and lost interest after that. If you want answers I think carefully reading McLovin's posts and shinywalrus too. Mine will confuse you because I want to see relevance and there doesn't seem to be any. Avoid me, focus on the 2 guys who actually had good analysis.
  16. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    Maybe I am missing your point, if so it is unintentional.
    The correlation of .65 was across the league. That in and of itself may or may not be relevant. For example house prices and honey be population decline are more correlated since 2008, does that mean anything - no.

    The regression and P value asserts that is significant linkage.

    I will agree that the 10pts or 11 or 13 is somewhat arbitrary, but the league average in 2011 in H1 was just over 11 and 2012 is 10.76 (I think, left my data sheet on work computer). So seems as reasonable as any

    I have been troubled by the slow starts for awhile, I had created a thread a couple of weeks ago about how the dallas defense was holding opponents to low scores in the 1st half and we werent capitalizing.

    If you can score first or early, it places some pressure on the other team. Any stress to the other team is better than giving them confidence that they can give up 2 drives and at likely only be down 6pts at worst.
  17. ScipioCowboy

    ScipioCowboy More than meets the eye. Zone Supporter

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    So the league average is generally somewhere between 10 and 11 points. That would grant some significance to the 10 point number, right?
  18. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    Actually 1st half points on average is about 11.4 in 2012 and 11.03 in 2011.

    Seems a fine starting point for me. The >500 teams likely score more than 10 and the losing teams likely score less.
  19. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    Rank Avg First Half points by year

    2007 13.1pts - 7th
    2008 11.8 - 16th
    2009 11.1 - 16th
    2010 10.9 - 15th
    2011 11.4 - 17th
    2012 6.6 - 30th

    Rank Avg Second Half points by year

    2007 14.7pts - 2nd
    2008 10.8 - 17th
    2009 10.7 - 12th
    2010 13.6 - 4th
    2011 11.3 - 13th
    2012 15.1- 3rd

    This has been a 2nd half team for a while.
  20. Hostile

    Hostile Tacos are a good investment Zone Supporter

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    Honestly man, it just is that I see 11 points as very arbitrary. That is my point. Is is very hard to score 11 points in the NFL. So why wasn't 10 points used? Why not 12 points? Infinitely easier to score 12 than 11. 10 would signify double digit scoring and it is also common. I would have had no issues at all if the parameter had said 2 TDs in the first half. That is alarming and I admit I had no idea we hadn't. Nor would I have likely chimed in if it was double digit scoring, or 10 points. Unless of course it was to show that we had scored 10 four times.

    I also brought up the fact that it is possible to score 11 or more and still be behind.

    My only point is that 11 points is a manufactured, cherry picked number that does not signify a large increase in chances of winning. Would you feel better if in one of our games we scored 4 FGs in the first half? I wouldn't, because to me that still means we are stalling drives and settling for FGs. Yet it would be above that 11 point barrier. So by the original premise this would mean we are doing something right like the rest of the league supposedly.

    I don't see it that way at all. Therefore I don't see 11 points as an incredible leap over 10 points which we have done 4 times as I originally noted when I misread the OP. In other words 11 points is not a huge advantage over 10 points as it seemed to be presented.

    Again, I appreciate the work you did. It was interesting and I thank you. I just do not see this as alarming. The not scoring 2 TDs...oh hell yeah. That sucks.

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