The Cowboys are the only team in the NFL who has not achieved this goal

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CowboysFanSince88, Nov 26, 2012.

  1. ScipioCowboy

    ScipioCowboy More than meets the eye.

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    Let's say I'm running a marathon. Along the marathon path, there are five markers spaced at equal distances so I can keep track of my progress. Each marker includes a time stamp so I know how long it took me to get there.

    While there are five markers in this marathon, there could just as easily be seven or eight or ten or a hundred markers. It doesn't matter. What's important is that all runners in the marathon are using the same markers; therefore, I have a means of comparing my progress against the other runners.

    By looking at the average time it requires to reach each marker, I can know if I'm running ahead or behind most other runners.

    This 10 point number is like one of those markers. It gives us a means of comparing the Cowboys against the other teams in the league. And it's an area we need to improve. That's all.
  2. goshan

    goshan Well-Known Member

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    The average points in the 1st half (6.6?) is the statistically relevant data point. The fact that we are the only team who hasn't reached 10 is primarily a way to amplify/communicate our poor performance on Offense in the 1st half.
  3. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    I think everyone agrees 6.6 is pathetic.

    The 65% in and of itself is fairly meaningless because, as shinywalrus said, the more points you score the more you should win. Using the regression formula the 6.6pts in the first half actually projects to only 3 Dallas wins. The fact that dallas has 5 wins can partly be attributed to the high 3rd highest scoring in the second half.

    You made me relook at the data.The Standard deviation after 11 games the average team H1 scoring totals 125pts with a standard deviation of +/-35pts

    This equates to 66% of teams score between 14.6 and 8.2pts in the first half

    Caveat: There is skew and not a good bell/gaussian distribution and normal standard deviation extrapolations can increase error from mean.
  4. jnday

    jnday Well-Known Member

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    This explains the whole post. Anyway you look at it, the Cowboys not scoring more than 11 points in any first half this year speaks volumes about the coaches and players.
  5. CowboysFanSince88

    CowboysFanSince88 Well-Known Member

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    Especially when you have the other option of being in FG range 4 times in 30 mins and can atleast get 12 pts or maybe even 15 pts

    I just want the offense to pretend they are down 20 when the game starts:laugh1:
  6. peplaw06

    peplaw06 That Guy

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    I wonder if there is another team in the league that hasn't reached 13 points in the first half?

    I kind of doubt that there's a team out there that has only scored 11 or 12 points in the first half once. 11 points is damn near impossible to score, and 12 would require 4 FGs in 30 minutes, also rare.

    13 would be a TD and 2 FGs, so that could be more plausible. I don't have the time to look it up now, but I suspect that we're the only team that hasn't scored 13 or more points in the first half this season.
  7. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    NOPE. Standing alone
  8. Hostile

    Hostile The Duke

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    Now, see I find this alarming and not arbitrary.
  9. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    Dont really know why it is so small, but this is the relationship between first half points and point differential and W/L/T

    I found the data game by game, this seems better as averages can mask an anomaly (e.g. NE going up by 35 in 1st half can skew there overall results)

    You can see in upper left that scoring <=10pts in a half has a 34% winning. Go over 10 (usually starting at 13+) and that % jumps doubles to 69%

    The total points while important ís still seemingly notstrong as margin. Go up by more than 1Td and teams have won 88% of those games

    When trailing at halftime(Margin<0) there is only a 25% chance of winning. Tied is 50/50 (13/13). Only 40 games have been come from behind at halftime. That is surprising, but human nature will remember those games since they are likley more exciting.

    Final chart to the right shows all team and the point differential in all of the wins. Only 4 teams have - point differntials (Jax, Dal, KC, Cle).
  10. OklahomaCowboy88

    OklahomaCowboy88 Benched

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    Hopefully our next head coach better have an offensive background.
  11. peplaw06

    peplaw06 That Guy

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    See, wouldn't it have been great if you had looked into it further before going on a tirade about 11 points??

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