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The What-if game -- How the draft changes to small changes in assumed needs.

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by dwmyers, Mar 4, 2007.

  1. dwmyers

    dwmyers Well-Known Member

    2,049 Messages
    38 Likes Received
    What I like about a mock draft engine is making small (or sometimes large) changes in the drafting rules and seeing how things change. But anyway, to frame a starting point, we'll present two mocks through the first round that use exactly the same team needs but two different top 100 valuations. Then we'll take one of those and start changing the team needs of the Cowboys and seeing how the draft changes.

    The draft rules for the Cowboys will be:
    Code:
    #
    # Cowboys needs
    #
    rule need
    needlist FS CB DE DT OT OG QB
    cond QB round 3-7 max 1 
    cond DT round 1-7 max 1 tag pass-rush
    cond DE round 1-7 max 1 tag pass-rush
    cond OG round 1-7 max 1 
    cond OT round 1-7 max 1 
    cond FS round 1-7 max 1 
    cond CB round 1-7 max 1 
    exception 15
    
    A slice of top 100 list # 1 is largely from the War Room, with Brady Quinn moved into the top 10. Tags on both lists are my addition as well, but they only affect the drafting of linemen. I'm of the opinion that the biggest need for Dallas is an inside pass rush. We'll test drafts with and without that assumption.

    Code:
    1. JaMarcus Russell, QB
    2. Calvin Johnson, WR
    3. Joe Thomas, OT
    4. Amobi Okoye, DT, pass-rush
    5. Gaines Adams, DE, pass-rush
    6. Zach Miller, TE
    7. Brady Quinn, QB
    8. Adrian Peterson, RB
    9. Paul Posluszny, OLB
    10. Jamaal Anderson, DE, pass-rush
    11. LaRon Landry, S
    12. Leon Hall, CB
    13. Reggie Nelson, S
    14. Charles Johnson, DE, pass-rush
    15. Alan Branch, DT, 2-gap
    16. Aaron Ross, CB
    17. Ted Ginn Jr., WR
    18. Daymeion Hughes, CB
    19. Justin Blalock, G
    20. Brandon Meriweather, S
    21. Greg Olsen, TE
    22. Lawrence Timmons, OLB
    23. Kevin Kolb, QB
    24. DeMarcus Tyler, DT, pass-rush
    25. Aaron Rouse, S
    
    Top 100 list #2 is from Great Blue North:

    Code:
    1. Calvin Johnson, WR
    2. Jamarcus Russell, QB
    3. Joe Thomas, OT
    4. Brady Quinn, QB
    5. Adrian Peterson, RB
    6. Alan Branch, DT, 2-gap
    7. Gaines Adams, DE, pass-rush
    8. Dwayne Jarrett, WR
    9. Jamaal Anderson, DE, pass-rush
    10. Reggie Nelson, FS
    11. Amobi Okoye, DT, pass-rush
    12. Levi Brown, OT
    13. Jarvis Moss, DE, pass-rush
    14. Ted Ginn, WR
    15. Marshawn Lynch, RB
    16. Patrick Willis, LB
    17. LaRon Landry, FS
    18. Leon Hall, CB
    19. Dwayne Bowe, WR
    20. Sidney Rice, WR
    21. Darrelle Revis, CB
    22. Lawrence Timmons, LB
    23. Adam Carriker, DE, 34
    24. Jon Beason, LB
    25. Robert Meacham, WR
    
    And the first rounds of each are:

    Code:
    1. Oakland Raiders select JaMarcus Russell, QB.
    2. Detroit Lions select Amobi Okoye, DT.
    3. Cleveland Browns select Joe Thomas, OT.
    4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Calvin Johnson, WR.
    5. Arizona Cardinals select LaRon Landry, S.
    6. Washington Redskins select Gaines Adams, DE.
    7. Minnesota Vikings select Jamaal Anderson, DE.
    8. Houston Texans select Brady Quinn, QB.
    9. Miami Dolphins select Leon Hall, CB.
    10. Atlanta Falcons select Reggie Nelson, S.
    11. San Francisco 49ers select Paul Posluszny, OLB.
    12. Buffalo Bills select Alan Branch, DT.
    13. St Louis Rams select Justin Blalock, G.
    14. Carolina Panthers select Zach Miller, TE.
    15. Pittsburgh Steelers select Adrian Peterson, RB.
    16. Green Bay Packers select Ted Ginn Jr., WR.
    17. Jacksonville Jaguars select Charles Johnson, DE.
    18. Cinncinnati Bengals select Greg Olsen, TE.
    19. Tennessee Titans select Lawrence Timmons, OLB.
    20. New York Giants select Aaron Ross, CB.
    21. Denver Broncos select Brandon Meriweather, S.
    22. Dallas Cowboys select Daymeion Hughes, CB.
    23. Kansas City Chiefs select DeMarcus Tyler, DT.
    24. New England Patriots select Aaron Rouse, S.
    25. New York Jets select Patrick Willis, ILB.
    26. Philadelphia Eagles select Kevin Kolb, QB.
    27. New Orleans Saints select Rufus Alexander, OLB.
    28. New England Patriots select Jon Beason, OLB.
    29. Baltimore Ravens select Tanard Jackson, CB.
    30. San Diego Chargers select Ben Grubbs, G.
    31. Chicago Bears select Tony Ugoh, OT.
    32. Indianapolis Colts select Dwayne Bowe, WR.
    
    Code:
    1. Oakland Raiders select Jamarcus Russell, QB.
    2. Detroit Lions select Brady Quinn, QB.
    3. Cleveland Browns select Joe Thomas, OT.
    4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Calvin Johnson, WR.
    5. Arizona Cardinals select Alan Branch, DT.
    6. Washington Redskins select Gaines Adams, DE.
    7. Minnesota Vikings select Dwayne Jarrett, WR.
    8. Houston Texans select Adrian Peterson, RB.
    9. Miami Dolphins select Amobi Okoye, DT.
    10. Atlanta Falcons select Reggie Nelson, FS.
    11. San Francisco 49ers select Patrick Willis, LB.
    12. Buffalo Bills select Levi Brown, OT.
    13. St Louis Rams select Lawrence Timmons, LB.
    14. Carolina Panthers select Jamaal Anderson, DE.
    15. Pittsburgh Steelers select Ted Ginn, WR.
    16. Green Bay Packers select LaRon Landry, FS.
    17. Jacksonville Jaguars select Jarvis Moss, DE.
    18. Cinncinnati Bengals select Adam Carriker, DE.
    19. Tennessee Titans select Jon Beason, LB.
    20. New York Giants select Marshawn Lynch, RB.
    21. Denver Broncos select Dwayne Bowe, WR.
    22. Dallas Cowboys select Leon Hall, CB.
    23. Kansas City Chiefs select Darrelle Revis, CB.
    24. New England Patriots select Sidney Rice, WR.
    25. New York Jets select Zach Miller, TE.
    26. Philadelphia Eagles select Robert Meacham, WR.
    27. New Orleans Saints select Anthony Spencer, DE.
    28. New England Patriots select Brandon Meriweather, FS.
    29. Baltimore Ravens select Michael Griffin, FS.
    30. San Diego Chargers select Quinn Pitcock, DT.
    31. Chicago Bears select Paul Posluszny, LB.
    32. Indianapolis Colts select Drew Stanton, QB.
    
    Let's make a single line change in the Cowboy's draft rules. Let's make it so that cornerbacks won't be drafted until the second round.

    Code:
    #
    # Cowboys needs
    #
    rule need
    needlist FS CB DE DT OT OG QB
    cond QB round 3-7 max 1 
    cond DT round 1-7 max 1 tag pass-rush
    cond DE round 1-7 max 1 tag pass-rush
    cond OG round 1-7 max 1 
    cond OT round 1-7 max 1 
    cond FS round 1-7 max 1 
    cond CB round 2-7 max 1 
    exception 15
    
    For reasons of space, we'll show just the Dallas picks and we'll only be using top 100 list #2:

    Code:
    22. Dallas Cowboys select Brandon Meriweather, FS.
    53. Dallas Cowboys select David Irons, CB.
    87. Dallas Cowboys select Jay Moore, DE.
    
    Now we'll also exclude FS from the first round:

    Code:
    22. Dallas Cowboys select LaMarr Woodley, DE.
    53. Dallas Cowboys select David Irons, CB.
    87. Dallas Cowboys select Ben Grubbs, OG.
    
    We'll now add WR to the draft and exclude DE in the first round

    Code:
    22. Dallas Cowboys select Sidney Rice, WR.
    53. Dallas Cowboys select David Irons, CB.
    87. Dallas Cowboys select Jay Moore, DE.
    
    For those who don't like Rice, I'll note Meachem is drafted in the 24 slot in this draft; he's certainly available.

    Finally we'll end with the "offensive line 4-evR" set of Dallas draft needs. we'll eliminate any DT/DE possibilities and increase the possibility of drafting an OT by rating it "high" and OG by rating it "urgent". The draft rules for Dallas have now become:

    Code:
    #
    # Cowboys needs
    #
    rule need
    # needlist FS CB DE DT OT OG QB WR
    needlist FS CB OT OG QB WR
    cond QB round 3-7 max 1 
    # cond DT round 1-7 max 1 tag pass-rush
    # cond DE round 2-7 max 1 tag pass-rush
    cond OG round 1-7 urgent max 1 
    cond OT round 1-7 high max 1 
    cond FS round 2-7 max 1 
    cond CB round 2-7 max 1 
    cond WR round 1-7 max 1
    exception 15
    
    and the draft ends up like:

    Code:
    22. Dallas Cowboys select Justin Blalock, OG.
    53. Dallas Cowboys select Joe Staley, OT.
    87. Dallas Cowboys select Tony Franklin, CB.
    
    Now what I'd like to say is that *every* needs list I've provided is reasonable and yet I've come up with half a dozen very different drafts. There is a lot of variation in what Dallas could do and to pick on one draft because they have one pick ya don't like.. well, particularly with computer gen'd drafts, the point is to explore the possibilities and see who Dallas *might* draft.. not who Dallas *must* draft.

    David.

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