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The Wulf Den: Personnel Perplexities

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Wulfman, Mar 8, 2013.

  1. egn22

    egn22 Well-Known Member

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    man, great post. I hate the fact that for every position of need that I'd hope we address in the 1st round, you say we'll most likely miss out on the top prospect in that range. For example, at Safety Vaccarro will probably be gone, at DT Floyd will be gone, at OG Cooper and Warmack will be gone...
    jeez. makes me wonder what i should hope for in the 1st round.
  2. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Austin, Bernadeau and Livings were all restructured. This basically guarantees most of what would have been non-guaranteed base salary for 2013.
  3. AsthmaField

    AsthmaField Outta bounds

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    I don't think that both Warmack and Cooper will be taken by the 18th pick.

    I also don't think the Cowboys want to take a guard at number 18 either.

    It's still early, but I think their targets at 18 will be DT's Floyd, Richardson, and Lotulelei - S Vacarro - and possibly a OT if one falls that is ranked highly although I see that as an outside chance.

    I think they trade back if those options aren't there and go for either one of the guards (Warmack or Cooper) if they happen to fall, or one of the second tier DT's like Short or Sylvester Williams. I could also see a different safety (besides Vaccaro) if they trade back far enough into the late first round.

    I could even see them taking a guy like Tavon Austin if they have him ranked highly enough and he slides some after we trade back. If they could justify taking a player like him because he was so highly ranked, I think they'd do it.

    More than ever these days Dallas is trying to cover themselves enough that they can truly take the best player available with their early picks and be ok with it. Signing Spencer was a big step towards that.
  4. Biggems

    Biggems White and Nerdy

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    I think Frampton and Sims should be on the bubble.
  5. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    at 18 there is a very good chance no one will want to trade up or will not offer enough for us to do it
  6. big dog cowboy

    big dog cowboy THE BIG DOG Staff Member

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    Yes but someone always falls. It's just a question of who and are they someone we are interested in.
  7. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    They're Free Agents.
  8. Wulfman

    Wulfman Unofficial GM

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    It all depends on how the first 17 picks go, Eskimo. There is almost always at least one slider, and guards historically don't go anywhere near as high as they are ranked. A lot of people had Iupati ranked in the top 10 a few years back, but he didn't go that high. Last year, many had DeCastro that high or even higher, and he fell even further. So the likelihood of one of those two guards being available at #18 is pretty good. Having said that, I'm not sure the Cowboys take one in the first round even if one of those two is available. I would, mind you, but I'm not sure they will.

    I think there's a pretty good chance that Richardson, Vacarro, or one of the guards will be available when the Cowboys go on the clock, and if they are, I take one of them and don't look back.

    As for a trade down, a lot will depend on how far back we're talking about and what they anticipate will be available at the new spot. After all, we've learned the hard way that trading back just to get more picks is not the best way to go about it. If you're talking about dropping back 4 or 5 spots to pick up a second or third rounder, it's likely because one of the sliders is very appealing to a team with minimal needs.

    An interesting possibility is the situation San Francisco is in. They don't have very many needs at all, and will likely have 15 draft picks after trading Alex Smith and getting compensatory picks. If there's something in particular that they want to go get--say a playmaker like Tavon Austin--and don't think he's going to be available, they could package their 1st (#31 overall), the 2nd they'll get from KC (# 34 overall), and the 3rd they got from Carolina (#74 overall) for our 1st (#18) and 2nd (#47). The deal would be slightly better for the Cowboys, but SF would only really be giving up one pick, so it might be something they'd do.

    I don't trade out of the first round without getting, at a minimum, a high 2nd round pick this year and next year's 1st rounder...and it might take more than that. For example, let's say that Buffalo wants to jump back into the 1st round to take a QB. They could conceivably wait and get the player in the 2nd, but it's a gamble, and the new collective bargaining agreement gives teams a 5th year on the rookie contract for 1st round picks. So let's say they do it. When we traded out of the 1st round with them in 2004, they were only moving up to pick #22, and they traded us their 2nd rounder (#43) and 5th rounder (#144) in addition to their 1st rounder in 2005. If they wanted to come up to #18 this year, I would take nothing less than their 2nd (#41) and their 4th (currently pick #102, although it will change with compensatory picks) in addition to next year's 1st rounder.

    One thing I have learned...don't be surprised by anything.
  9. Eskimo

    Eskimo Well-Known Member

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    You know what really gets me: we have twice done those deals where we trade out of the first for a 2nd round pick in the current draft and a 1st round pick in next year's draft so a bottom feeder team could draft a QB in around the slot we are in this year's draft. We did it in 2004 with Buffalo and in 2007 with Cleveland. Now those two teams perpetually suck but both of them after bombing the first half of the season got hot in the second half of the season and only netted us picks in the next year's draft near the one we gave up. In almost any other year in the past decade those teams have picked in the top 10. That's just our luck. Kind of the same way that no one ever misses a FG against us.

    I do like the trade back option with SF as it would allow us to pick from the top of the second tier of DTs, OGs and Safeties where there may not be a huge dropoff in quality compared to the first tier. I would love to get say a Jonathan Cyprien and Sylvester Williams. That may be a better haul for us than say Kawaan Short and the top Safety on the board at #47. There should be some good options for us at OG in the 3rd round.

    If the OGs drop to us I'd be happy to take Cooper but would pass on Warmack because his lack of mobility would hamper us on screen passes and I'm not sold on his pass blocking skill set which was never seriously tested in college playing for Bama. If we were a run-first man blocking OL like Minnesota the pick makes sense but I'm not convinced he is a difference maker on this offense. Cooper has no such athletic limitations, can pass block well and can play Center. He would probably be worth the pick although I am also not convinced we would pick him if he were available at #18.

    I don't think I want Vacarro at #18 because I don't think he generates enough TOs to be worth the pick. A safety taken up there should be a proven ball thief, IMO.

    I'd be happy to take Richardson, Moore or Werner if they end up falling and not look back because you should never pass up a legit pass rusher that falls in your laps. Unfortunately it looks like there is no chance that Ansah will slide to us after his Combine performance. Ditto for Dion Jordan and Sharif Floyd. There is the possibility for Star if his heart is damaged but then that opens up a huge medical can of worms that would have to be thoroughly vetted.

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