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Theogt's 3-4 OLB Rankings

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by theogt, Apr 26, 2007.

  1. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    The Overall Rankings are based on two formulas: College Production and Physical Attributes. The College Production formula combines Tackles, TFL, and Sacks. I have limited my College Production analysis to the final 2 years of a player's college career. I've found that even the most productive athletes in college tend to only have 2 solid years of production. For various uncontrollable reasons such as injury, or simply having a better player in front of them, many players cannot get onto the field as DE early on in their college career.

    Phystical Attributes combines each of the measurables taken at either the player's Combine or Pro Day: Height, Weight, 40-Time, 20-Time, 10-Time, Bench Press, Vertical Jump, Broad Jump, Shuttle Time, and Cone Time. If a player didn't run at the Combine, I substitute his Pro Day times. If a player didn't run a particular event at either his Pro Day or the Combine, I used an average of both the worst time in the group and the average of the group.

    The formulas take each variable and provide a divisor such that the variance on each variable is roughly similar. This allows you to reach a number based on each variable that can translate across measurements into a single formula.

    Now, this IS NOT a complete analysis of the players. I would certainly make a few changes if I were putting together a board of my own. However, the rankings are based on verifiable facts that should correlate very highly with a player's overall ranking. Again, it's not perfect, but it is a compilation of all objective measurements that we have available.

    Overall Rankings
    - Based on Physical Attributes plus 2005 and 2006 College Production.

    Adams, Gaines........90.21
    Spencer, Anthony.....88.81
    Robison, Brian.......87.79
    Bazuin, Dan..........87.47
    Crowder, Tim.........84.38
    Ford, Jacob..........82.24
    Woodley, LaMarr......82.14
    Moore, Jay...........82.03
    Ah You, CJ...........81.23
    Abiamiri, Victor.....80.93
    Moss, Jarvis.........80.22
    Applewhite, Antwan...77.29
    Atkins, Baraka.......74.27
    Moses, Quentin.......73.03

    2006 Rankings - Based on Physical Attributes plus only the players' 2006 College Production.

    Spencer, Anthony.....86.94
    Adams, Gaines........86.07
    Robison, Brian.......84.23
    Crowder, Tim.........82.63
    Bazuin, Dan..........79.76
    Moore, Jay...........79.51
    Woodley, LaMarr......79.16
    Ford, Jacob..........78.58
    Ah You, CJ...........78.03
    Abiamiri, Victor.....77.13
    Moss, Jarvis.........76.74
    Applewhite, Antwan...74.46
    Atkins, Baraka.......73.22
    Moses, Quentin.......68.15

    Total Production Rankings - Based solely on College Production in 2005 and 2006.

    Bazuin, Dan...........8.45
    Spencer, Anthony......8.28
    Adams, Gaines.........7.83
    Ford, Jacob...........7.07
    Crowder, Tim..........6.66
    Abiamiri, Victor......6.35
    Woodley, LaMarr.......6.28
    Applewhite, Antwan....5.79
    Moss, Jarvis..........5.77
    Moore, Jay............5.05
    Moses, Quentin........4.83
    Robison, Brian........4.76
    Atkins, Baraka........4.16
    Ah You, CJ............3.95

    2006 Production Rankings - Based on College Production in 2006.

    Spencer, Anthony......7.72
    Adams, Gaines.........6.58
    Bazuin, Dan...........6.13
    Crowder, Tim..........6.13
    Ford, Jacob...........5.97
    Woodley, LaMarr.......5.38
    Abiamiri, Victor......5.21
    Applewhite, Antwan....4.94
    Moss, Jarvis..........4.72
    Moore, Jay............4.30
    Atkins, Baraka........3.85
    Robison, Brian........3.69
    Moses, Quentin........3.37
    Ah You, CJ............2.99

    Physical Attribute Rankings - Based on Combine and Pro Day Measurements.

    Robison, Brian.......43.16
    Ah You, CJ...........40.84
    Moore, Jay...........39.11
    Adams, Gaines........38.47
    Crowder, Tim.........37.31
    Woodley, LaMarr......36.73
    Spencer, Anthony.....36.72
    Moss, Jarvis.........36.60
    Atkins, Baraka.......36.24
    Abiamiri, Victor.....35.86
    Bazuin, Dan..........35.59
    Ford, Jacob..........35.21
    Applewhite, Antwan...34.79
    Moses, Quentin.......34.16

    Here are some comparison stats:

    DeMarcus Ware
    Physical Attribute.....43.30 (1st)
    2004 Production.........6.51 (3rd)
    Total Production........7.41 (4th)
    2004 Total Rating......93.86 (1st)
    Overall Rating.........96.86 (1st)


    Kamerion Wimbley
    Physical Attributes....39.89 (3rd)
    2005 Production.........4.64 (10th)
    Total Production........5.63 (10th)
    2005 Overall Rating....81.95 (5th)
    Overall Rating.........85.24 (5th)

    Here's what I find interesting. A guy like Mark Anderson seemingly came out of nowhere in 2006 to rack up 12 sacks as a rookie for Chicago. He was drafted in the 5th round, but based on these rankings he would clearly have been a top pick.

    Mark Anderson
    Physical Attributes....41.78 (2nd)
    2005 Production.........4.78 (9th)
    Total Production........6.22 (8th)
    2005 Total Rating......85.59 (3rd)
    Overall Rating.........90.38 (1st)

    A similar situation happened with Marques Colston. My receiver formulas had him ranked 8th in this draft (a very deep draft in WRs) and 3rd in last year's draft.
    I just can't understand why Anderson could last until the 5th round and Colston could last until the 7th.

    Manny Lawson
    Physical Attributes....43.49 (1st)
    2005 Production.........6.77 (2nd)
    Total Production........8.05 (1st)
    2005 Overal Rating.....95.05 (1st)
    Overall Rating.........99.31 (1st)

    This is why I was in love with this guy last season. Amazing measurables and amazing production in college. In 2006, San Francisco was forced to use him as a 4-3 OLB where he was unable to rush the passer much. He played pretty well, but should see more attempts to rush the passer in '07.
  2. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Great stuff, love it Theo. I've put my rankings, using the same players, next to yours for comparison purposes. Really pretty similar.

    Adams, Gaines........90.21 Adams, Gaines.......93.32
    Spencer, Anthony.....88.81 Spencer, Anthony....92.02
    Robison, Brian.......87.79 Woodley, LaMarr.....89.25
    Bazuin, Dan..........87.47 Bazuin, Dan.........87.13
    Crowder, Tim.........84.38 Robison, Brian......86.83
    Ford, Jacob..........82.24 Crowder, Tim........86.25
    Woodley, LaMarr......82.14 Abriami, Victor.....85.76
    Moore, Jay...........82.03 Moore, Jay..........80.66
    Ah You, CJ...........81.23 Moses, Quentin......79.46
    Abiamiri, Victor.....80.93 Moss, Jarvis........78.70
    Moss, Jarvis.........80.22 Ah You, CJ..........78.53
    Applewhite, Antwan...77.29 Ford, Jacob.........77.45
    Atkins, Baraka.......74.27 Atkins, Baraka......74.95
    Moses, Quentin.......73.03 Applewhite, Antwan..73.30
  3. MichaelWinicki

    MichaelWinicki "You want some?" Staff Member

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    Great stuff ogt. You obviously put a great deal of effort into that. Thank you for sharing.
  4. MichaelWinicki

    MichaelWinicki "You want some?" Staff Member

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    os85 you've come up with some wonderful info yourself-- please keep it up!
  5. tomson75

    tomson75 Brain Dead Shill

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    Just a couple of quick thoughts, as I don't have time to go over this thoroughly yet...

    You've got a couple of guys I really don't see making a transition to outside linebacker...like Crowder. Unless he drops some weight and improves his agility quite a bit, I'd be wary of drafting him to play a 3-4 OLB (unless he's used solely as a pass rusher). I really can't see him trying to cover TE's and RB's.

    I'm also assuming you're just including the top tier prospects (at least in this years crop), and that is why DeOssie hasn't been included in this list. ...or do you not see him projecting to the outside?

    Good stuff though, I'll have to get back to it later.
  6. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    What do you think of his ability compared to, say, Greg Ellis?
  7. CowboyFan74

    CowboyFan74 Cowboys Analyst

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    Great work, wish you could somehow fwd this to Wade Phillips:bravo:
  8. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    I think Crowder could make the transition. I too think he'd be a better fit for the 4-3 DE, but for a guy his size he really is quite athletic. As The_Jackal hinted at, Greg Ellis sort of busted all stereotypes for me. If he can play the position with a modicum of success, Crowder should be able to as well. But yeah, 4-3 DE is almost certainly his destination.

    I would have liked to include guys like DeOssie and Stewart Bradley, but the problem is that those guys played LB in College and the production numbers don't exactly translate well in comparison to DEs. I have ran the numbers, though, so here they are:

    DeOssie, Zak
    Physical Attributes....41.68 (2nd)
    2006 Production.........7.00 (2nd)
    Total Production........8.41 (2nd)
    2006 Overall Rating....92.80 (1st)
    Overall Rating.........97.51 (1st)

    Bradley, Stewart
    Physical Attributes....38.72 (4th)
    2006 Production.........3.43 (13th)
    Total Production........4.44 (13th)
    2006 Overall Rating....75.96 (13th)
    Overall Rating.........79.33 (12th)
  9. junk

    junk I've got moxie

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    I don't think he really "came out of nowhere". Several people were discussing him last year pre-draft. I think I even took him in one of the mocks we had here (and got totally blasted for it).

    However, having said that 3-4 teams continually passed on him, so there must have been something in his workouts that didn't project to the 3-4 OLB position.

    I know everyone is fascinated with the athleticism, but Lawson would have required Ware to move to the strong side. There were rumblings that Lawson was down to 225 last year.
  10. Charles

    Charles Benched

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    Excellent stuff
  11. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    I understand that he wasn't rated a 5th round pick going into the draft, but that's where he landed. If a 5th rounder puts up that kind of production, that's quite the surprise in my opinion. I've tried to look around and find out why he dropped so much but can't find anything. Maybe it was a fluke, but the point stands -- these rankings had him rated very high, probably a late 1st, early 2nd round pick.

    I agree that's a major concern. It's hard to say whether Lawson can put on more weight. But we do know that he weighed 241 at both the Combine and at his Pro Day, so that 225 is way off. Kamerion Wimbley only way 7 pounds more. They both needed to put on weight, though. It'll be interesting to see what Lawson weighs when the 49ers report his official weight this year.

    Regardless, Lawson's measurables were just unreal. And his college production matched it.
  12. junk

    junk I've got moxie

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    I guess my point was more along the lines that obviously there were some people that felt he could play at the next level. He obviously proved it. I have no idea why he dropped either.

    225 was the rumor that he dropped down to during the season. Losing that much weight during your rookie year wouldn't surprise me. Recent articles out of SF have him at 238.
  13. tm1119

    tm1119 Well-Known Member

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    From what i have seen from Spencer I really dont see him being a good stand-up defender in the NFL. His agility and ability to change direction have been questioned, plus he is kinda short with short arms to be a successful against big o-lineman. I can really see this guy as being nothing besides a work out warrior who doesnt become a very good NFL player. Not to mention he only had 1 productive season in college.
  14. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    That's fine. I was just pointing out that my system was a pretty good indicator. :D

    Ah....gotcha. Yeah, when I watched him at SF, he just looked extremely thin -- moreso than he did in college even. Oh well, we didn't draft him, so.....

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