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Tracking Poll Update

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by jimnabby, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    Just to have them in one place:

    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][B]Poll                   [/B][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][B]Today    Obama Lead      [/B][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Change[/SIZE][/FONT][/B]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Rasmussen       [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]52-45        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+7                        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Gallup (Trad.)   [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]50-46        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+4                         [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]-1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Gallup (Exp.)     [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]51-45       [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+6                          [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]-2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Zogby                [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]52-40       [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+12                       [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Hotline              [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]47-42       [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+5                         [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]--[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Battleground     [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]49-45       [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+4                         [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+2[/SIZE][/FONT]
  2. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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  3. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Is Zogby the correct one now or is it one of the others I keep forgetting which one is suppose to be the legit one. :laugh2:
  4. NinePointOh

    NinePointOh Well-Known Member

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    It's whichever one looks good for the candidate you support. The rest are all rubbish. Of course, if none of them look good, then all polls are useless.
  5. JBond

    JBond Well-Known Member

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    I tend to look at IBD. They have no major agenda. They provide financial advice. It would seem to me they would want the most unbiased realistic numbers to base their advice on. It's just good business. The last number I saw was a +3 for Obama.
  6. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    Well, lucky for you, they're out now and show Obama +1 (45-44).
  7. Bonecrusher#31

    Bonecrusher#31 Active Member

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    Looks like the race is tightening up......
  8. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    Well, three polls have it tightening, three have it widening, and one has it unchanged. If you look at the RCP averages, movement toward McCain peaked on the 19th (Obama +5). Since then, the average has moved toward Obama. The only poll that still includes data from before the 19th is IBD.
  9. Wheat

    Wheat Philosopher

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    everybody knows that Polls are just evil lies by liberals and unwed mothers in a lame attempt to get Republicans to stop voting.
  10. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Interesting analysis below of IBD - I admittedly don't know much about them but the idea that their poll shows McCain leading 3:1 among 18-24 year olds should raise some eyebrows.


    What's Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll Nazi Strikes Again)

    That's right ... IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74-22 among 18-24 year olds. Who knew the kids were groovin' on J-Mac these days?

    IBD/TIPP puts an asterisk by this result, stipulating that "Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size".

    Indeed, there may be some fluctuations when looking at small subgroups like these. That's why I generally don't pick on a poll if, say, it has John McCain winning 18 percent of the black vote when he's only "supposed" to be winning 7 percent or whatever. Fluctuations of that magnitude are going to be relatively common, mathematically speaking. In fact, they're entirely unavoidable, if you're taking enough polls and breaking out the results amongst enough subgroups.

    But fluctuations of this magnitude are an entirely different matter.

    Suppose that the true distribution of the 18-24 year old vote is a 15-point edge for Obama. This is a very conservative estimate; most pollsters show a gap of anywhere from 20-35 points among this age range.

    About 9.3 percent of the electorate was between age 18-24 in 2004. Let's assume that the percentage is also 9.3 percent this year. Again, this is a highly conservative estimate. The IBD/TIPP poll has a sample size of 1,060 likely voters, which would imply that about 98 of those voters are in the 18-24 age range.

    What are the odds, given the parameters above, that a random sampling of 98 voters aged 18-24would distribute themselves 74% to McCain and 22% to Obama?

    Using a binomial distribution, the odds are 54,604,929,633-to-1 against. That is, about 55 billion to one.

    So, there is an 0.000000002% chance that IBD/TIPP just got really unlucky. Conversely, there is a 99.999999998% chance that one of the following things is true:

    (i) They're massively undersampling the youth vote. If you only have, say, 30 young voters when you should have 100 or so in your sample, than the odds of a freak occurrence like this are significantly more likely.
    (ii) Something is dramatically wrong with their sampling or weighting procedures, or their likely voter model.

    My guess is that it's some combination of the two -- that, for instance, IBD/TIPP is applying a very stringent likely voter model that removes you from the sample if you haven't voted in the past two elections, which would rule a great number of 18-24 year olds out.

    A pollster could get away with a turnout model like that in 2004 (when IBD/TIPP did well in estimating the national popular vote), when the split in the youth vote was relatively small between John Kerry and George W. Bush. They can't get away with that this year, when the split is much larger.

    But the basic takeaway is this: you should absolutely not assume that just because someone has published a poll, they have any particular idea what they're doing. Pollsters should be treated as guilty until proven otherwise.

    -- Nate Silver at 2:05 PM
  11. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow! Zone Supporter

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    What's interesting about the IBD numbers is that if the youth vote was more in line with what it's actually going to be, it'd show a roughly 7 point Obama lead. That's right in line with the rest of the polls.
  12. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

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    This kid predicted the Rays would win 90 games way back in Feb. He's gaining a big time Rep. real fast as a guy that knows how to read numbers and make accurate predictions.
  13. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    Here they are for Friday, Oct. 24.

    [B][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Poll                    Today    Obama Lead        [/SIZE][SIZE=3]Change[/SIZE][/FONT][/B]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Rasmussen         [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]52-45        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+7                           0[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Gallup (Trad.)     [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]50-45        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+5                          +[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Gallup (Exp.)      [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]51-44        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+7                          +1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Zogby                 [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]51-41        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+10                         -2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Hotline               50[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]-43        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+7                          +2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Battleground      [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]49-46        [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]+3                          -1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    IBD/TIPP comes out later in the day.

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