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Trading down? Oh, jeez...

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Tass, Apr 25, 2006.

  1. Tass

    Tass Lucky Devil

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    How many guys in the draft can actually make an impact immediately? The lower you pick it stands to reason that the player pool you choose from is more diluted. So instead of an impact guy and some benchwarmers we want all benchwarmers? Whatever...I guess the Cowboy front office is smarter than all the draft gurus and analysts out there. I'm tired of thinking about it. Wow...I don't even care anymore. Just get who you're going to get and play ball already.
  2. DBoys

    DBoys New Member

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    There is value in later rounds just like the guy in your sig :)
  3. Tass

    Tass Lucky Devil

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    Well, that was luck. I'm talking about a surer bet.
  4. Rack Bauer

    Rack Bauer Federal Agent

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    There's no such thing as a sure bet. Not even if you have THE #1 pick.
  5. Jay

    Jay Active Member

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    Are you kidding me? Seriously, have you ever followed the draft or watched football in the past, or is this your first time?
  6. CowboyDan

    CowboyDan Anger is a Gift

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    You mean like these surer bets?

    QB Ryan Leaf (2) Washington State-San Diego Chargers-1998
    RB Blair Thomas (2) Penn State-New York Jets-1990
    WR Desmond Howard(4) Michigan-Washington Redskins-1992
    TE Ricky Dudley(9) Ohio State-Houston Oilers-1996
    OT Tony Mandarich(2) Michigan State-Green Bay Packers-1989
    OG Eugene Chung(13) Virginia Tech-New England Patriots-1992
    DE Aundray Bruce(1) Auburn-Atlanta Falcons-1988
    DT Steve Emtman(1) Washington-Indianapolis Colts-1992
    LB Brian Bosworth(2) Oklahoma-Seattle Seahawks-1987
    CB Bruce Pickens(3) Nebraska-Atlanta Falcons-1991
    S Patrick Bates (12) Texas A&M-Los Angeles Raiders-1993

    QB Heath Schuler (3) Tennessee-Washington Redskins-1994
    RB Lawrence Philips (6) Nebraska-St. Louis Rams-1995
    WR Michael Westbrook (4) Colorado-Washington Redskins-1995
    TE David LaFluer(22) LSU-Dallas Cowboys-1997
    OT Antoine Davis(8) Tennessee-Philadelphia Eagles-1991
    OG Brian Jozwiak(7) West Virginia-Kansas City Chiefs-1986
    DE Andre Wadsworth(3) Florida State-Arizona Cardinals-1998
    DT Dimitrius Underwood(29) Michigan State-MinnesotaVikings-1999
    LB Percy Snow(13) Michigan State-Kansas City Chiefs-1990
    CB Michael Booker(11) Nebraska-Atlanta Flacons-1997
    S Shaun Williams(24) UCLA-New York Giants-1998
  7. Typhus

    Typhus aka...golden

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    All this trading down is really making my head spin, but whatever,... if they do, than one thing is certain,,, Lawson, Carpenter, and Wimbley, are not coveted targets, since SD, SF, and NE, all 3-4 teams, are all there waiting behind us.. waiting, and well,, is it saturday yet....:bang2:
  8. dallasfaniac

    dallasfaniac Active Member

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    Yeah, dropping down from 15 to 20 might be stupid, but dropping down from 18 to 30 the talent is pretty much the same. There's really only like what.....12 blue chip prospects? Unless one of the drops to 18, then trading down just gains us picks and leaves us with a similar talent pool.

    Look at WR. Tell me that Holmes or Jackson would be a first rounder a year or two ago. Heck, at CB look at Cromartie. He wasn't a full time starter in 2004, and was injured in 2005, yet he is going to be a first rounder because of his workouts not his 1 year of parttime play.

    We've had too many juniors or players 3 years removed from highschool entering the draft. It is becoming weak. Maybe next year will be different.
  9. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

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    As someone else said earlier today... if Carpenter is your most coveted player, don't get cute and trade down... draft him!
  10. Typhus

    Typhus aka...golden

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    Im already onboard that ship TB, just waiting to set sail cap'n.
  11. CrazyCowboy

    CrazyCowboy Well-Known Member

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    Jeff Ireland will take care of everything!
  12. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    there is no sure bet.
  13. big dog cowboy

    big dog cowboy THE BIG DOG Staff Member

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    Working the draft board.

    Getting more value for the pick.

    These kind of terms must be pretty foreign to you.
  14. DBoys

    DBoys New Member

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    LOL :p
  15. gbrittain

    gbrittain Well-Known Member

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    Impressive list you put together, but that is just one big giant red herring IMO.

    Lets use the three year rule. Players should be "players" by their third year by most account.

    Now lets go back three years and analyze the draft.

    Carson Palmer Bengals - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Charles Rogers Lions - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
    Andre Johnson Texans - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Dewayne RobertsonJets - Starter
    Terence Newman Cowboys - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Johnathan Sullivan Saints - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
    Byron Leftwich Jaguars - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Jordan Gross Panthers - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Kevin Williams Vikings - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Terrell Suggs Ravens - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Marcus Trufant Seahawks - Starter
    Jimmy Kennedy Rams - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
    Ty Warren Patriots - Starter
    Michael Haynes Bears - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
    Jerome McDougle Eagles - Undetermined due to injuries
    Troy Polamalu Steelers - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Bryant Johnson Cardinals - Role player
    Calvin Pace Cardinals - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
    Kyle Boller Ravens - Starter
    George Foster Broncos - Starter
    Jeff Faine Browns - Starter. L. Bentley brought in
    Rex Grossman Bears - Undetermined, due to injuries.
    Willis McGahee Bills - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Dallas Clark Colts - Starter
    William Joseph Giants - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
    Kwame Harris 49ers - Starter
    Larry Johnson Chiefs- Pro Bowl caliber player
    Andre Woolfolk Titans - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
    Nick Barnett Packers - Starter
    Sammy Davis Chargers - Starter
    Nnamdi Asomugha Raiders - Starter
    Tyler Brayton Raiders - Still with team, borderline bust as of now

    Dennis Weathersby Bengals - Out of NFL?
    Artose Pinner Role player
    Todd Johnson Bears - Minimal production
    Domanick Davis Texans - Pro Bowl caliber player
    Montrae Holland Saints - Starter
    Bradie James Cowboys - Starter
    George Wrighster Jaguars - Minimal production
    Onterrio Smith Vikings - Role player
    Shaun McDonald Rams - Role player
    DeJuan Groce Rams - Starter
    Quentin Griffin Broncos - Minimal production
    Jarret Johnson Ravens - Starter
    Seneca Wallace Seahawks - Undetermined, back up QB
    Terrence McGee Bills - Starter
    Matt Wilhelm Chargers - Minimal performance
    Brett Williams Chiefs - Minimal performance
    Nicholas Eason Broncos - Minimal performance
    Lee Suggs Browns - Role player
    Ian Scott Bears - Starter
    Dan Klecko Patriots - Minimal performance
    Jeremi Johnson Bengals - Minimal performance
    Colin Branch Panthers - Minimal performance
    Asante Samuel Patriots - Starter
    Justin Griffith Falcons - Starter
    Steve Sciullo Colts - Out of NFL?
    Roderick Babers Giants - Out of NFL?
    Brandon Lloyd 49ers - Redskins made him a millionaire (Starter)
    Ivan Taylor Steelers - Out of NFL?
    Rien Long Titans - Role player
    Sam Aiken Bills - Minimal performance
    Bryant McNeal Broncos - Minimal performance
    Shurron Pierson Raiders - Out of NFL?

    1st Round
    Pro Bowl caliber players - 10
    Starters - 11
    Role Players - Hard to judge if a role player among first round picks
    Bust - 10

    2nd Round
    Pro Bowl caliber players - 1
    Starters - 9
    Role Players - 5
    Bust - 16

    I used the first round versus the fourth round, because they are both the elite rounds of their days, days one and two. Of course had I compared round 1 versus round two the results would be much closer to each other I suspect. However, that is the point to demonstrate that the chances of getting a solid to Pro Bowl caliber player is much better in the first round and the odds of hitting on such players goes dows as each round passes.

    Now this assessment is by no means perfect. Some "Pro Bowl" caliber players are much better than others and some are starters due to lack of a capable replacement and some are starters because they are that good.

    Some 1st round picks would be out of the NFL if not for their big contracts and willingness to give them just "one" more try.

    Some 4th round picks are just kept around due to their cheap price over a slightly better player and special teams contributions.

    All in all, the notion that the first round picks are overrated is well...overrrated. If you want your best shot at an impact player you are most likely to find that person in the 1st round.
  16. Future

    Future Intramural Legend

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    i am very impressed with that gbrittain

    but i cant imagine that every draft was that succesful
  17. gbrittain

    gbrittain Well-Known Member

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    I would agree with that. Understand one thing, I did not selectively pick a year that I knew would go one way or the other. I wanted to pick the most rescent draft that could be judged somewhat, therefore the three years.

    I would venture to say that most years will bare out similiar percentages.
  18. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    But you're also paying a much higher cost and taking a much bigger risk, which aren't worth it, on average. Last year, two economists published research of NFL draft picks that found that the most efficient picks over the long haul are in the middle of the second round. The production from those players, on average, wasn't much lower than that of first-round picks, but the cost and risk involved was much lower.
  19. DCBoysfan

    DCBoysfan Hardwork and Dedication Zone Supporter

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    we need to trust they have a plan.
  20. speedkilz88

    speedkilz88 Well-Known Member

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    I would feel better about a trade down if they had a better track record with second round picks.

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