Updated draft order...

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Portland Fanatic, Dec 8, 2004.

  1. Portland Fanatic

    Portland Fanatic Well-Known Member

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    1 San Francisco 1-11 .479
    2 Miami 2-10 .557
    3 Cleveland 3-9 .599
    4 Arizona 4-8 .453
    5 New Orleans 4-8 .474
    6 Tennessee 4-8 .490
    7 Washington 4-8 .516
    8 Oakland 4-8 .542
    9 Kansas City 4-8 .547
    10 Tampa Bay 5-7 .445
    11 Chicago 5-7 .484
    12 Carolina 5-7 .495
    13 Houston 5-7 .510
    14 Detroit 5-7 .521
    15 Dallas 5-7 .526
    16 San Diego (from New York Giants**) 5-7 .542
    17 Seattle 6-6 .443
    18 St. Louis 6-6 .474
    19 Dallas (from Buffalo*) 6-6 .510
    20 Jacksonville 6-6 .526
    21 Cincinnati 6-6 .552
    22 Denver 7-5 .464
    23 Minnesota 7-5 .484
    24 Green Bay 7-5 .489
    25 Baltimore 7-5 .552
    26 Atlanta 9-3 .412
    27 San Diego 9-3 .464
    28 Indianapolis 9-3 .500
    29 New York Jets 9-3 .500
    30 New England 11-1 .474
    31 Philadelphia 11-1 .469
    32 Pittsburgh 11-1 .495

    Couple things to think about...I bet/hope Miami, AZ, maybe Cleveland, and Tenn (based on rumors of McNair retiring) will go after QB's this year. Let's hope they make a dog fight at the top of the draft pushing someone like Johnson, Williams, Rolle, Brooks, Wright down to us at #15...it's fun speculating.
  2. TheHustler

    TheHustler Active Member

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    Thanks for the update.
  3. Paniolo22

    Paniolo22 Hawaiian Cowboy

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    The good news about this is if you look at where we are, we own the tie breaker over everyone except the Giants. Even if we tie the Seahawks, we would get the TB over them. If we do our job and win what we should win, there is a good chance our 9-7 or 8-8 would be the one that gets in. The g-men are looking out of it, and if we tie the Panthers or Bucs, we hold the conference tie breaker. We also have the head to head w/ the bears. We are actually in control of our own destiny. (If rams, giants and seahawks lose 1)
  4. jobberone

    jobberone Kane Ala Staff Member

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    Thanks. Now to beat the Saints. They are not a gimme. I can't wait just to watch Julius.

    SALADIN Jumper

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    Think the 9'ers aren't looking for a QB.

    Rattay and Dorsey or Leinart, Rogers?
  6. Portland Fanatic

    Portland Fanatic Well-Known Member

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    Rattay is not that bad...that's why I did not include SF...he needs lots of help.

    Never know though...would only help us by pushing a player we want down.
  7. Hostile

    Hostile The Duke

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    I triple checked my math. Did find a pretty glaring error, but not near as many math errors as that list has. Some of their draft order is off because their calculations are off.

    By all means, if anyone comes up with a different calculation I will check again.

    This is the correct draft order as it stands right now.

    1. 49ers, 1-11, .465

    2. Dolphins, 2-10, .549

    3. Browns, 3-9, .646

    4. Saints, 4-8, .465

    5. Cardinals, 4-8, .479

    6. Redskins, 4-8, .521

    7. Titans, 4-8, .528

    8t. Raiders, 4-8, .563 * Coin Flip

    8t. Chiefs, 4-8, .563 * Coin Flip

    10. Buccaneers, 5-7, .444

    11. Bears, 5-7, .486

    12. Panthers, 5-7, .493

    13t. Giants, 5-7, .521 (Chargers own pick.) * Coin Flip

    13t. Texans, 5-7, .521 * Coin Flip

    15t. Cowboys, 5-7, .535 * Coin Flip

    15t. Lions, 5-7, .535 * Coin Flip

    17. Seahawks, 6-6, .389

    18. Rams, 6-6, .431

    19. Bengals, 6-6, .507

    20. Bills, 6-6, .535 (Cowboys own pick.)

    21. Jaguars, 6-6, .563

    22. Broncos, 7-5, .486

    23. Packers, 7-5, .493

    24. Vikings, 7-5, .500

    25. Ravens, 7-5, .549

    26. Falcons, 9-3, .417

    27. Jets, 9-3, .431

    28. Colts, 9-3, .472

    29. Chargers, 9-3, .479

    30. Steelers, 11-1, .472

    31. Eagles, 11-1, .479

    32. Patriots, 11-1, .507
  8. Portland Fanatic

    Portland Fanatic Well-Known Member

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    Truth be told I stole it from another website...dang bums...gave me bad info.
  9. Dale

    Dale Forum Architect

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    I hope we play them right. Pound it with Julius, and pound it some more. Once they start committing to stopping the run, throw some conservative passes to Keyshawn and hit Witten in the seam. Then pound it with Julius even more.

    They've been trying to stop the run all season, but they've been unable to. Clearly, whatever game plans they have designed to commit to defending the run have been unsuccessful. Here's to another Saints' failure.

    Here are some of the stats from the runners they have faced this year:

    Derrick Blaylock, Kansas City: 33 for 186, 1 TD
    Reuben Droughns, Denver: 28 for 166, 1 TD
    Nick Goings, Carolina: 36 for 122, 1 TD
    Shaun Alexander, New Orleans: 28 for 135, 2 TDs
    Emmitt Smith, Arizona: 21 for 127, 1 TD
    Mewelde Moore, Minnesota: 15 for 109
    Kevan Barlow, San Francisco: 20 for 114, 2 TDs

    SALADIN Jumper

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    Not that bad QB's don't win Championships. You think if they had a choice between not that bad and Rogers or Leinart that they wouldn't chose one of the latter?

    btw, he is pretty bad
  11. jobberone

    jobberone Kane Ala Staff Member

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    Yeah but I hope they pound it to the left more. :D
  12. zagnut

    zagnut New Member

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    I think I know where the difference in the calculations is, but I honestly could not find the answer to which one is right. I posted this back in week 10 when it was easy to figure out. I should probably do the math before posting this. They may just be wrong.

    In figuring strength of schedule, do you include or omit the win or loss in the opponent's schedule that refers to your own team?

    If the win or loss is included, your Strength of Schedule and draft order is correct. If it is omitted, the parent post's order might be correct. For instance, if omitting wins or losses against one's own team, Minnesota would have 6 wins instead of 7 for the purpose of figuring SoS, because one of the wins is against Dallas.

    Also, I think there's an intermediate step before coin flip tie breakers. Are you including that? I think it's conference/division record, whichever's more applicable.
  13. zagnut

    zagnut New Member

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    Okay. I did the math for our own schedule. Neither number given above for Dallas matches what I came up with. Each one is about a .005 difference. (0.526 vs 0.535)

    I took our schedule, subtracted wins or losses from our opponent depending on whether Dallas won or lost, and it adds up to 70 wins and 62 losses. Total number of games is 132. 70 wins divided by 132 games is 0.530303.

    I understand how Hos gets his number -- 77 wins divided by 144 games. Don't know how the original post gets there's. Am I missing something?
  14. Nors

    Nors Benched

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    If an 8-8 team makes the playoffs and wins the Super Bowl do they draft last?

    Does playoff progression come into play? If Dallas and Buffalo make playoffs could we be looking at two picks in the 20's?
  15. zagnut

    zagnut New Member

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    Yes and Yes. If we won or played in the Super Bowl, we would draft 31 or 32. If we make the playoffs at 8-8 and lose the first game to finish 8-9, we could draft behind an AFC team than finished with a better record but didn't make the playoffs. It's conceivable a 10-6 AFC team that missed the playoffs could draft before us if we made the playoffs. :eek:
  16. Bobo

    Bobo New Member

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    I'm gonna be suprised if McNair actually does retire. If he does, I'd still be somewhat suprised if the Titans take a QB in the 1st. They believe Billy Volek can be a starter, and I'd bet that stick with that 1st before taking a QB from a supposedly weak QB class.

    Some rumors I've heard is they are watching Texas closely for DJ or Benson.
  17. Noone

    Noone New Member

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    A non-playoff team that goes 8-8 drafts BEFORE a playoff 8-8.

    Strength of schedule is first priority
    to break ties with Super Bowl winner picking last
    and Runner-up second to last.

    The teams that exit the playoffs first rank lower than the ones who exit later.

    8-8...non play-off
    8-8....loose first round
    8-8....win first round.
  18. Hostile

    Hostile The Duke

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    Opponent's winning percentage is calculated by the total number of wins by your opponent divided by the total number of games the opponents have played.

    Vikings 7-5
    Browns 3-9
    Redsksins 4-8
    Giants 5-7
    Steelers 11-1
    Packers 7-5
    Lions 5-7
    Bengals 6-6
    Eagles 11-1
    Ravens 7-5
    Bears 5-7
    Seahawks 6-6

    12 opponents and each have played 12 games. That means the total number of games played is 144.

    Now you add up the total number of wins and it comes to 77.

    77 wins divided by 144 total games is .535. There is no number of wins divided by 144 that will compute to .526.

    75/144 = .521
    76/144 = .528

    I created a program in Microsoft Excel that does all of my calculations for me automatically. All I do is enter a win or a loss and the program automatically does all the calculations.

    Each week before the games start I change the field by 1 number so that the calculations remain current. If I could ever figure out how to make it automatically assign the draft order I'd love it. I've thought very seriously about putting this program on a web site so people can access it. Maybe one of these days.
  19. TheEnigma

    TheEnigma Anomaly

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    We hold the tie breaker against everybody, including three or more team ties, except for the Giants unless we beat them, Carolina if a certain scenario goes down, and if we are tied with Seattle and Chicago or Detroit. In the two later cases, it would come down to Strength of Victory, and I don't know how to figure that.
  20. TheEnigma

    TheEnigma Anomaly

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    How many of you would agree with me that Julius is better than all but 1 or 2 people on that list? That is of course in their current form.

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