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What is your draft philosophy?

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Dough Boy, Apr 28, 2006.

  1. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Seldom Seen

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    Here is mine. I think you draft for 2 - 3 yrs out. You don't take the best fit today, but you attempt to project which player will be a better fit in 2,3 years. With that, I've revised my thoughts.

    In round 1, I would take Lawson, Wimbley or Carp in that order. I think Manny will be able to make the transition. My one caveat is this, is Lawson willing to gain the weight. If not, I would then rule him out. I'm not an insider, so I have no way off knowing. I do think Carp would be a good fit for today, but three years into this thing, I think Lawson has a chance of being "Dominant". If he can gain the weight, he can lose two steps and still run a 4.5 which is plenty fast.

    In the 2nd round, I would go Ko Simpson. I've seen him play and his upside is tremendous. He is a ballhawk if I've ever seen one. 3 years from now, I can see him being one of the best pure FS in the game.

    In the 3rd, if Jon Scott is there, I take him. He reminds me a lot of Flo. I think he is quick enough to play the side vs the speed rushers. I'm not sure he will ever be a road grader, but more teams are going with the smaller (Jevon Kearse) DE and not many teams have a Reggie White or Bruce Smith type end.

    I've :flipflop: more than John Carey, but I can admit it. You don't build through the draft for this season. Manny doesn't have to start this year. Al S is good enough to play the run and you can bring Manny in on 3rd down and all special teams. Ko can learn behind Marcus Coleman who is a big saftey/Corner. You don't want to look back three years from now and say, I passed on that guy b/c I couldn't project him to appropriately. You shouldn't in my opinion, draft for today if your plans intell building for tomorrow. You take who you think will be the best guy three years out. If Ware can learn, so can Manny. You take your lumps this year, but you know a brighter day is coming. I think Parcels has this luxury. If you are a coach on the hot sit, you can't build for tomorrow. I've always thought, that if you have a coach who knows he has to win this year, don't let him run the draft. He is not thinking about winning tomorrow, he's thinking about 'feeding his family' (not literally).

    Just my philosophy, what's yours. I'd be very interested to discuss.
  2. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Mine has always been take the BPA that fills a need. Even more so today where these rookies will be FA 3 to 4 years down the line so sitting for a year or 2 is not in the cards.
  3. DLCassidy

    DLCassidy Active Member

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    Here's my philosophy: we get a bunch of good players that fill needs and Philthy, the dead skins and the midgets get bad players that hopefully become team cancers.:laugh2:
  4. speedkilz88

    speedkilz88 Well-Known Member

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    You draft a guy that you plan on keeping for ten years. It may not always work out that way, but you just have to.

    And I agree with your post doughboy.
  5. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Seldom Seen

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    BPA is a good one. I guess I go one step further and say projected BPA in year 2. 1st round picks are typically signed to 5 year deals, maybe they have performance void clauses, but if the clause kicks in (ie Newman, Roy and Witten) then you've done a good job b/c you know what you have.

    Either case, BPA with a minor tweek and I'm there with you.
  6. JackMagist

    JackMagist The Great Communicator

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    I look at the situation differently each year. If I am in a complete rebuild mode with a top 5 draft pick these are the years when you try to get that QB of the future but if you feel you are set at QB then trade down. If I am comfortable at QB I am looking to trade down and gain more picks to get a core of solid players. Here I am looking for the players to be ready in 2-3 years or even to position myself in the next draft. This plan worked well for us two years ago and positioned us for the next draft and allowed us to take some top players to rebuild our Defense.

    If I have a middle of the road team that is poised to take the next step and become a real contender (like the Cowboys are now) then I try to get the best player available to fill one of my holes and best bolster the team. A trade down is still a possibility since a team like this will still have several holes. A trade up would still be a possibility if the right player fell far enough in the draft. There are all sorts of possibilities with this type team because mostly I am looking for one or two guys who can step in and play now and help the team.

    If I am an elite team with solid playoffs hopes then I try to trade up and get the Star RB or Star WR that will put the team over the top. This type of team is set at QB and has a solid defense and is ready to make a run at the Big Show.
  7. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Seldom Seen

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    I agree speed, that you have to look out into the future a bit and say, is this a guy 10 years down I consider to be a blue chipper.
  8. rexrobinson

    rexrobinson Active Member

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    My draft Philosophy is as follows:

    • Lots and Lots of beer!
    • CHIPS!
    • Occasionaly scantily clad women (my girlfriend is doing her part this year)
    • 3 T.V. the radio and my laptop at my fingertips
    • A bib!!!!!
    • No Shame
  9. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Seldom Seen

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    Can you clarify one point. BPA today or BPA in year 2. Those are two different points, in my opinion. For example, I think Carp may be BPA today, but Manny or Wimbley will be BPA in 2 years. I think if Carp came out last year he would have been BPA last year over Ware. I think Ware would be BPA 2 yrs into the deal. JMO
  10. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Other than QB more and more teams expect these day 1 picks to play right away they don't have the luxury of sitting guys. By and large most rookie deals are 4 years we have a couple of exceptions to the rule on this team but agents want to be able to test the FA market for their client after 4 years. When I say BPA I mean those particular players who graded very high by the teams that drafted them. Your version and mine of BPA on draft day may vary god knows it does on all of these draft boards but the team picking these players give them a grade and you hope the team follows their own draft board.
  11. DiscipleofTuna

    DiscipleofTuna New Member

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    Good topic.

    First I would solidify the bigtime positions of shutdown corner, pass rusher (DE in 43, OLB in 34), LT,QB.

    If those are filled, you than need to budget your resources to the strengths of a particular draft. If a draft is loaded at a position you are strong at, than you need to factor age and economics. IE, if a guy is getting near 30 as your rush end and there will be one that drops aged 23, is the production dropoff that much? If not, try to move a guy at that spot for a pick.

    Thirdly is talent. The more talent your team has, the better your team is. Its sounds simple but teams draft more for need than talent. Here is an unfavored view example:

    Say the top guy on your board in round 2 is Darnell Bing. Sure you have Roy Williams but he is up for contract negotiations. The economical thing and talent upgrade thing would be to draft Bing, give him a year in the system, see how he projects, and pay Williams accordingly. If the talent dropoff is not that much, than why pay Williams? Very much like what the Patriots have done with Brady and Rodney Harrison.

    Early rounds Im looking for sure things. Guys you dont have to babysit. Professionals per se. Later rounds is where you find a person with a niche, like speed and see if you can finetune the other factors and turn that player into something.

    I guess in conclusion, the draft is the cheapest and most effective way of upgrading talent. By drafting the best players, you can more efficiently allocate cap dollars and cut dead weight.
  12. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    My draft philosophy is to always look for good trade downs unless there's a player that you're pretty positive will be a stud and make an impact right away.

    From there, I consider what position they are in along with abilities. Passing up on a Roy Williams type when you need a safety isn't very wise because he's a real special talent. However, if you're dying to have Donte Whitner, you're probably better off waiting in the later rounds since historically there have been quality safeties found in the later rounds.

    For this draft I want to see them get a trade where they snag up an additional 4th rounder since they don't have one and that would round it out to them getting 7 picks instead of 6.

    In the first round, I want to make the defense an elite pass rushing unit. Sacks has an extremely strong correlation to winning and losing....even higher than turnover margin...and if they can find a legit pass rushing threat at LOLB, they could terrorize the league with Ware. Plus, if one of them happens to get hurt, it won't be completely devastating because right now we don't have much in the way of a pass rusher outside of Ware.

    For all of the talk of "how are we going to defend Washington's WR's", getting an elite pass rushing defense will make things a lot harder for any offense and make the secondaries job easier. And...barring injury....I don't think they can lose if they get to select either Lawson, Wimbley or Carpenter.

    Here's what I would do:

    1. If all 3 LB's are available or they are in a good position to get one of the 3 LB's....trade down.

    1A - Manny Lawson

    If I had my druthers, he'd be my pick. More than just a workout warrior as his 10.5 sacks last season shows that he's productive. Freakish athlete with long arms and by watching him on TV, his speed shows up on the fie.d

    OTHER POSITIONS TO LOOK AT (highest priority, listed first)

    OT - While I like what we have at OT if they are healthy, Flo is 31 and Fabini is 32 years old. Can't afford to lose them to injury again and I'm believing that you really only find quality OT's on day one for the most part. We have a bigger need at guard, but you can find guards easier than you can find quality OT's in this league. In the second round I like Eric Winston or Johnathan Scott. I've grown less fond of Marcus McNeill as time has passed.

    NG - I think they could be okay if both Pepper Johnson and Jason Ferguson are healthy, but Ferguson's age scares me and if he goes down, they are incredibly depleted. That being said, this draft doesn't really have many NG prospects so I can easily see them waiting until day 2 to go after a guy. I'm guessing Ngata is far gone by the second round, so either Gabe Watson or Rodrique Wright. After those two, I have no clue who they could pick.

    FS - A quality FS would not only turn the secondary into an elite...if not the best secondary in the league....but if they can find a pass rush from the LOLB spot, it could make this one powerful defensive squad barring injuries. Lastly, if they can move Keith Davis to special teams full time...that will make the special teams unit from being historically pretty solid to being a top 5 unit in the NFL. I like Anthony Smith, Ko Simpson and Daniel Bullocks (played SS in college, but has enough skill and talent to play FS in the NFL).

    OG - I think they paid too much for Kosier whose main struggles are lack of bulk. Last year Al Johnson and Marco Rivera had problems with getting pushed back, so now we add a guard that gets pushed back as well? Not that I actually hate them going after Kosier who has nice versatility and will probably be better than what Larry Allen gave them last year, but they spent too much on the guy. Anyway, they have an incredible lack of depth here, especially considering Marco Rivera is 34 years old. The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger priority is they can sub in Gurode and I think either Petermann or Tarullo will improve quite a bit this year (gut instinct). Davin Joseph, Charles Spencer or Max Jean Gilles would be my top guys after the first round to select.

    WR - They need to find somebody with speed and preferably punt return skills If they can find somebody like that, that will give a boost in the punt return (Crayton was mediocre last year) and if Glenn or T.O. go down with an injury, it will still create some matchup problems. The guys I would like to see them draft are on the second day with FSU's Willie Reed, Missouri's Brad Smith, or Texas A&M's Reggie McNeal.

    CB - No real need for it now, but the 5th CB on the roster is Nate Jones who is nothing more than a special teams coverage guy. However, Henry is 29 years old and Glenn is 33 years old. Typically you want 4 serviceable CB's on your roster. I like Reeves a lot, so if I can develop a CB the same way Reeves has developed, they could be pretty much set at CB for the next 5 years as Reeves could take over for Henry at the RCB spot and have the rookie CB take over for Glenn. Since Newman is so good at playing the slot in the nickel, you'll probably want a speedy CB to play the LCB spot in his place in the nickel. My choice is Maryland's Gerrick McPhearson.


    Rich.........
  13. MiStar

    MiStar New Member

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    Players need to be able to play as soon as possible for two major reasons, injury and FA. With the new CBA, only the first couple of picks sign contracts for 6 years, the rest of the first round, 5 years, and then 4 years and less from then on. So if a player takes two years to "live up to his potential", gets injured for a good portion one year, you've gotten two years of good service out of your 18th draft pick before he cashes in with you or someone else.

    Looking at our top draft picks over the past couple years, look at how many haven't played as expected. Ware, Newman, and Roy have been healthy. And all three have played up to their "potential", with the exception of Ware, who hasn't played up to his potential as a run defender or as a cover guy.

    Then you look at Al Johnson(injured for a full year), Rogers (never saw the field due to injury), Spears (hindered by a leg injury suffered in the preseason), Burnett(can't stay healthy), Julius Jones (played up to his potential for 9 games, 8 his rookie year and 1 this year, yet has either been injured or innefective for the the rest of his first two years), and Gurode (So much potential, but he had plenty of time to come around and hasn't)

    It goes to show you thatyou can't count on anyone both realizing their potential in an acceptable time frame and staying healthy enough to make an impact on the field.

    With that in mind, I draft the palyers that I think I am garunteed to get the most out of. I avoid the players with troubling injury histories, the players who wont be good right away, and the players who wont be successful when they get dinged up.
  14. speedkilz88

    speedkilz88 Well-Known Member

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    Make no mistake that Lawson and Wimbley will play in their first year and contribute a lot. Just look at what SD did with Merriman. He didn't play full time, they put him in pass rush sitations and he contributed ten sacks. Nothing wrong with having Al Singleton start and bringing in the tweener on passing downs. And putting Ware on the strong side isn't a bad idea either.
  15. JackMagist

    JackMagist The Great Communicator

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    I see what you are asking; do we get the player who is the most polished right now or do we get the guy with the most upside?

    To answer your question; I will take the guy who will be BPA 2 years down the road IF and only IF he is good enough to play well for me NOW. I want the guy with the most upside in the long term but only if he can do a serviceable job in the short term.

    Certainly Ware would be BPA two years into the deal but Ware was also good enough to step in and play well for us last year. Lawson and Wimbley are that type of players; they could help us now and will be huge in the future. Again we would have to live with some rookie mistakes but they would both be upgrades and I would rather have them be serviceable this year and be beast two years from now than to have Carpenter be merely serviceable for the rest of his career.
  16. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Only problem with that is no one know how any of these players will do next year let alone 2 or 3 years down the road. All a team can do is judge a draft choice by his play in college and the things they see during the workouts.
  17. chicago JK

    chicago JK Well-Known Member

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    My opinion is you aim for a solid B grade draft every year. Take solid players with good character. It doesn't mean you never gamble on untapped upside but for the most part you limit your large gambles. You look for productive football players and not workout wonders.
  18. Dalmations202

    Dalmations202 Member

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    My draft is a Modified BPA.

    Grade the players in the draft.
    Grade the players currently on the team.
    Add small bonus (1-3 pts) for positions of quality, and (1-5 pts) need, and subtract for draft strength of position.

    Subtract current player points from draft grade points and see which one is highest. This takes into account what you currently have, and what you need, as well as the talent. You then add a small bonus for position of need, and a small one for quality position then subtract if this is a very strong draft for this position.

    You get a number, then categorize the players based upon which group they are in both position, and the modified #.

    Easy, but the trick is grading out the players.

    Oh yea, and there may need to be a category for Agent in there as well that effects the grade.
  19. Yeagermeister

    Yeagermeister Active Member

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    Pick a player when it's your turn
  20. DiscipleofTuna

    DiscipleofTuna New Member

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    That is exactly why you draft the best players. You never know when injury strikes. Drafting Barber in the 4th saved our season for the most part keeping the productivity alive while JJ was shelved. Whose to say that Bledsoe gets a Palmer like injury and is in serious question about his future. Romo decides not to sign, and you go into 2007 with Henson as number one. Would passing on Cutler at 18 make sense?

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