I think wick's point about rushing td's vs passing td's is that most rushing td's come after you have moved the ball close to the goal line - which is usually the result of passing. So increasing your number of total td's helps with winning - but the question is how are you getting down into the redzone. Increasing your number of rushing td's may be because a team decides to run the ball more than pass when it is near the goal line - in this case total td's will be the same, passing td's will decrease and rushing td's will increase. The key to winning is getting more scoring opportunities - and you do that by trunovers and efficient passing to get near the goal line. Occassionally you will see a 70 yard td run - in that case running the ball gave you another scoring chance but that is rare. Mostly scoring opportunities are acheived by efficient passing - with some runs mixed in - to get you to the goal line but most of the yards are from passing. Therefore the efficient passing and turnovers are a higher predictor of getting more scoring opportunities than running the ball well.