Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Aliencowboy, May 21, 2014.
That's irrelevant. You have no issue with anyone saying Zack Martin was great value in the 1st round. You wouldn't be responding with this nonsense that nobody knows. Let's wait and see. We're talking value and the general consensus is Martin at 16 had an abundance of it.
Hitchens was horrific value in the 4th round. I don't need to wait and see on that. That's the homer defense mechanism. No matter what happens from here, the Cowboys vastly over invested on a guy who came into the draft with a late round flyer/priority free agent projection.
I'll wait and see on that like I waited and saw on Matt Johnson.
That's fine man. Call it bad value all you want.
You still don't know if he's going to be a good player or not. Neither do I.
It might be irrelevant to you if he is a good player, but not to me. To me, that is the most important thing.
As for Z Martin... I don't think it was great value. Just good. I do expect him to be a very good player though, although there is always that chance that everyone was wrong about him.
Apparently, Risen has a magic list of exactly where each player was valued by other NFL teams. I guess that we could review Kiper's rankings from past years and they would all be 100% correct all the way through the 7th round.
There has not been a wait and see with Matt Johnson because none of us has seen him. He has been injured. There is no way for us the fans to evaluate his talent.
I don't want to. It just is bad value and I have the ability to say that even when it's my team that's involved.
You would have agreed with me too had I asked before the draft the question of whether Hitchens was good value in the 4th round. You won't find his name anywhere in that range. Now either everybody else is wrong and the Cowboys are right or the Cowboys simply made another of their horrific decisions in the draft over recent years and in the 4th round in particular.
You wait and see. I'll go with poor value on a player that will never be anything but a backup special teamer.
And I'll be right on that. Again.
It's real easy to come to an agreement. Just pretend the Redskins were the team who massively reached for Hitchens.
Or you can play youtube scout and "discover" all the hidden talent of Hitchens that everyone's missed, including you, before the Cowboys "shrewdly" selected him.
The choice is yours.
How can you say it was good value? Apparently you have one of those magic lists of where each player was valued by NFL teams. ~Gilbert laugh~
Or is it just okay to say that when the comment is positive about the Cowboys? Which is what we're really dealing with here. Sensitive fans who can't handle honesty.
Zack Martin was great value. Anthony Hitchens was horrible value. It's as simple as that. Who drafted them is irrelevant to that discussion.
Sounds like something you'd hear on ESPN.
What does? What I said or what RS said?
Unless we can agree on 'bad value relative to what,' it's impossible to say if Hitchens was a bad value pick or not. By my own estimation he was, but I know that my own estimation is only based on publicly-available perception of the players available and on who I thought the Cowboys would take at that point, instead (Telvin Smith or Pierre-Louis), so it was confusing when they took a linebacker I hadn't heard of previously and who doesn't particularly stand out even on his college film.
But Risen's point about not waiting and seeing before leaping to a conclusion is obviously a really bad one. As is his choice to use a player who's been legitimately injured to try to prop up his snap judgement. You don't need to see him dead wrong on too many snap judgements to realize he's not the sort to let sufficient data get in the way of his decisions.
Honestly man, I understand what you're saying. You're saying that they could have still gotten Hitchens in a later round and used the 4th round pick on a higher rated prospect. Value.
I get it.
It just doesn't matter that much to me. What does matter is if he is a good player. On that, we will have to wait and see.
And it is debatable if they could have actually gotten him later or not. There are several sources that have said Seattle and San Francisco were both ready to take him in that round. Now, do we know for that for sure? No we don't. However, it isn't just one guy saying it and it isn't just a guy who knows somebody's cousin who knows a guy who works in Seattle... no, it is guys from ESPN Dallas and the Cowboys own website, so it at least looks legitimate on the surface.
Watching Philly take Marcus Smith in the first, and Seattle taking Justin Britt in the second round, it isn't that big of a stretch to envision either team taking Hitchens in the 4th. It is clear that NFL teams sometimes value players differently than Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper.
If it is indeed true that San Fran, Seattle, and Dallas had Hitchens in the 4th, then it is likely that Mayock, Mel, and all the other media wanna-be scouts simply missed on Hitchens. And really, it isn't that big of a leap of logic to think that the NFL teams could be right.
To be fair, you have Dallas' 4th round recent history in your favor... so you could be right.
All that aside though, what matters to me is if he is a good player or not... I don't care that much if he would have been available in the 5th.
What I do know is that Dallas really wanted him and they liked specifics about him: His toughness, his football IQ, his ability to lead the defense, and his speed to get to the edge. Dallas knew his college coaches well, and they apparently gave a glowing recommendation to the Cowboys. Frankly, if the Cowboys loved him that much, I am A-OK with them taking him a round early in order to ensure they got him.
I would much prefer them to take him a little early to get a guy they have targeted rather than just wait until their turn and take the best of what is left over.
Anyway, I typically find you to be very rational about things, but you are a tad fixated on this subject. I understand that you feel strongly about this subject, but man... You're like a pit bull clamped down on the proverbial Hitchens bone.
That is my main complaint here. You have to assume that all of the part-time talent evaluators that inhabit the media and blog-o-sphere are correct in overlooking a player like Hitchens... and really, that is just a case of group-think as a whole. Just by looking at the UDFA's that make it every year, it is easy to tell that players are missed all the time. Not just by media mock-drafter's either, NFL teams miss quite often.
It really isn't a huge leap of logic to think that maybe Hitchens was tabbed incorrectly.
Not at all. The pick itself felt worse because I lot of us knew we were going LB there, and there were some well-regarded players on the board, and then we took a guy who'd been reported to be a 6th-round-or-later player by most public accounts. It's human nature to find that disappointing. But 1st, 2nd, 3rd round production is found outside the first three rounds in a draft all the time. We can think it's unlikely to happen in Hitchens case, and still be hopeful that it does and not be intellectually dishonest homers in the process.
In short, it's understandable to be disappointed in terms of our expectations. It's premature to be sure our expectations are right. Sometimes it can take 3-4 years for a player to James-Harrison or Laurent-Robinson himself into the league. There's zero chance anybody has sufficient evidence of that on draft day, and it's silly to pretend we do.
What you said specifically about Martin. You, the idiots at ESPN, Jerry Jones or the Pope don't yet know whether the pick has great value.
lol, just talking about where he was expected to go vs. where he actually went... which was about the same. That is the "value" I'm talking about. Not any real world value, which I think is going to be very, very good, although, like you pointed out for some reason, nobody really knows for sure yet.
Nothing is as simple as that. The first time you actually discusses Hitchens play on the field will be your first. You say you 'know the player' but demonstrate that not in the least.
I thought the Hitchens pick, at least when he was picked, was head scratcher too.
But to address this value stuff...And I tend to pound my fist on getting relative fair value more than most....
If New England would have "reached" for Tom Brady in the 4th instead of 6th would he have forever been poor value because nobody would have taken him until two rounds later?
At some point, if a player ends up living up to exceeding this draft position, I think you cut the team that took him some slack.
Right now, in my mind anyway, they reached for Hitchens.
Of course, we really don't know who else liked hi that early. For example, Jeffcoat went completely undrafted.
But teams should set their board based on their evaluations. If he ends up playing as good or better than most 4th round picks do, I'll think at least somewhat differently.
Watch Matt Johnson video and then Hitchens. You can see talent and potential from Matt Johnson albeit against a lower division, he jumps off the tape and his numbers height/speed backed it up. Most had him anywhere from 4-6. Watching Hitchens, there is nothing jumping off the tape- some teammates do- his agent said "6th round'. So for you basically if you have a consensus and you watch tape look at numbers and agree he is 6th round you're just following kiper? Hitchens' agent told him round 6. He has no clue either I guess. It's his job to know, don't you think?
I laugh and laugh when a board member mention offhandedly that we fellow board members
know more then professionals that are paid to do the job of assembling information on college players.
While we set at our computers gathering information from sports media types.
We all call the sports draft media types,idiots. Unless of course it supports our wishes.
I know of no draft resource that even had Matt Johnson drafted. He carried a worse consensus grade than Hitchens did this year.
Two horrific reaches.
Hitchens may of been a reach Pre-Lee Injury but 4th Round STs guys aren't really that uncommon around the League on Draft Day especially when they fill a need.
Ironically if Matt Johnson could stay healthy he has the athletic ability and instincts to contribute over Hitchens.