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Why This Election Will Be Close

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by irvin88, Oct 16, 2008.

  1. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

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    In recent weeks I have spent a good amount of time crisscrossing the country.

    Something very unusual is taking place.

    From Seattle to San Diego, from Burlington, Vermont to New York City, from New Orleans to Texas and Midwest towns like Cleveland, I am hearing hushed admissions of a terrible sin: “Father, I’m not going to vote for Obama.”

    Then I look at the polls. Nationally and in battleground States, Senator Obama is thrashing Senator McCain.

    So what gives?


    Pollsters would tell me it’s all very simple. Anecdotal evidence, like my experience on the road, isn’t really evidence at all. It is not trustworthy because it is not scientific. The divergence between what people are telling me and the polling data must be that I run in closed circles. People of like minds talk to me; the others don’t.

    Very logical…unless…unless people don’t want their neighbors (or pollsters) to know they aren’t voting for Obama.

    So, are we talking here about the “Bradley Effect”, that well-documented racist phenomenon of people telling pollsters one thing and then doing the opposite in the voting booth simply because the candidate is black?

    No. I am referring to something else — the fear of talking to pollsters, or to your neighbor, or to anyone else about not wanting to vote for Barack Obama because of what he stands for.

    Do you have doubts? How would you like to get up in front of a crowded theater in a mixed neighborhood and say you are going to vote for McCain? What respectable person wants to risk being considered a racist or a war monger or a fan of President Bush or an enemy of change? Many good people would like to see a black man as our president, or even a Democrat to be our president, but don’t want Barack Obama.

    Yes, this race is different in a way that defies the scientific nature of polls. Do you remember the hushed admissions? Why do people feel obliged to speak quietly? Will these people agree to talk to a pollster? I don’t think so. I wouldn’t.

    Eight years ago in 2000 and four years ago in 2004 my parents’ Ohio neighborhood was filled with political yard signs. For every two “Gore” or “Kerry” signs there were at least two “Bush” signs. And there were many, many signs, I assure you. Not so today. When I asked local McCain workers in Summit County the reason, they answered quickly: we go to the doors, people wink at us in approval, and then refuse to allow us to place a sign in their yard. A significant number of voters may prefer McCain, but don’t want to show their disapproval of Obama.

    What will this mean on November 4th? I don’t know for sure. I do think the election will be closer than the polls suggest.

    And I think it all has much more to do with Obama, the candidate, and his plans to “spread the wealth,” nominate very liberal federal judges and bow to Planned Parenthood, than with his ethnicity.

    What say you?

    God bless,

    Father Jonathan

    Father Jonathan Morris is author of the new book, “The Promise: God’s Purpose and Plan for when Life Hurts.” For more information click here.
  2. JBond

    JBond Well-Known Member

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    The biggest reason of all. ACORN

    I am feeling better today now that the truth about ACORN is coming out. Lots of time still.
  3. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    I think it will be close because this is a nation divided on many key issues. I don't think the political parties are what divide us as much as our own believe system. There is a reason why middle america votes different than those of the east and west coast. I think their are fundemental differances in this country
  4. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    It might be close vote wise, hell the old guy might win the popular vote like Gore did, but he is way behind in the electoral college.

    I know the Reps here are trying to convince themselves it isn't over but barring a real issue (and no ACORN is not that issue), the election is over.
  5. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    You could be right, we will see what happens on election day.
  6. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    You mean like the '80 election was over? We shouldn't have had the election, just appoint Carter to a 2nd term based on the polls? Or in 2000? Or in '04? EVERY SINGLE ELECTION the polls overstate Dem support by nearly 10 points. This is because, if you'd ever actually READ the damn things, you'll see they always oversample Democrats in the polling pool by 10-15 points. It's happening now, as in the past...the added twist now is they are oversampling black voters beyond their representation in the population as well.
  7. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    are you trying to convince me or yourself?

    hell your own boy says he is down 6, is closing down campaigns left and right, looks like a guy who is ahead to me
  8. JBond

    JBond Well-Known Member

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    That was worth posting twice. Those who take the time to look at details instead of drinking media kool aid know what is going on. The day after the election I will either be smiling broadly or deciding which two part time guys I am going to have to fire.
  9. VCDefectors

    VCDefectors Benched

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    Wishful thinking. McCain is going to face the kind of beatdown Walter Mondale did in the 1984 election.
  10. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

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    :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2:
  11. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Of course it's not...for you leftists.
  12. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    I think the primaries in the Appalacha states proved that voters will tell a pollster that they didnt vote for Obama.

    In fact, the exit polls showed that 1/3 of them said RACE WAS A FACTOR in their voting decision.

    So no, I do not believe in any Bradly Effect, or soft polling, or any other theories that suggest race will significantly affect the polling data.

    The overwhelming majority of the data right now suggest that Obama is not just slightly ahead in the electorial college, he is like over 100 electorial votes ahead according to most estimates.

    Maybe the popular vote will be close (2-3%), but it will be an electorial college landslide for Obama.

    My .02

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