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"Win-or-go-home" from a team point of view

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by percyhoward, Jul 14, 2013.

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  1. dwmyers

    dwmyers Well-Known Member

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    Another useful thing to know is the value of a turnover, which is also the value of the possession. Again, it differs with different models, but the classic model of THGF values it as 4 points. Others, maybe 3.5 to 3 points.

    Deal is, having the ball towards the end of the game is more important than a small lead.

    D-
  2. FuzzyLumpkins

    FuzzyLumpkins The Boognish

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    People live in the moment but a point in the 2nd quarter is worth as much as a point in the 4th.

    Show me some evidence that performance in 'clutch' circumstances differs from the rest of the game I will buy it. The reason why the probability changes is because it's a function of time. The probability of points being scored within a time frame doesn't change but the amount of time for those probabilities to come out is smaller so less variance. There are only so many possession in a game.

    Further, points in the 1st quarter are still on the scoreboard at the end of the game. If it is just as hard to score points in the first quarter then it makes no difference if the points are scored in the first or in the last two minutes. We only care if it's 'close and late' because of what we see int he moment and the anticipation that we feel. So for example, if its 10-9 down the stretch and there is a possession, the first possession of the game and it's outcome has the same bearing on the outcome as the that last one. If you had scored on the first possession instead of failing then it would count just as much at that moment. It just happened first.

    That's why you see temas like the Pats trying to get more possessions in. They just want more events. They don't care if it is early or late. They are just as valuable to your total at the end of the game.
    Idgit likes this.
  3. IrishAnto

    IrishAnto Well-Known Member

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    But that’s only stating the obvious.

    If you score a touchdown to take the lead by 7 with 1 second left on the clock then your probability of winning is huge due only to the lack of time your opponent has to respond.

    If you take the lead by 7 with 10 min left on the clock then your opponent has far more opportunity to reply in kind, so the probability of winning will drop.

    However whatever time you take the lead, if you don’t let your opponent score as many or more points that you posses at that moment, you still win the game!
  4. jobberone

    jobberone Orangutans make great guitarists Staff Member

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    You cannot ignore the stats on win probability. A negative two turnover differential works out on average for the home team to a 20% chance of winning. As game conditions change so do probabilities. All points and all deficits/leads are not the same at all times.
  5. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    With all the discussion about win probability, here's how the Cowboys did individually in 2012.

    Win Probability Added 2012
    Romo +4.32 (5th among NFL QB)
    Witten +1.87 (1st among NFL TE)
    Austin +1.78 (11th among NFL WR)
    Bryant +1.62 (15th among NFL WR)
    Ogletree +0.20
    Murray +0.01
    FJones -0.97

    This means the plays on which Witten was targeted positively affected the outcomes of games to a greater degree than did the plays on which any other TE was targeted during the regular season.
  6. CoCo

    CoCo Well-Known Member

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    If there is a Hall of Fame for posts, this one from Percy goes in on the 1st Ballot. I noticed his OP is up to 22 likes at this point. I saved a copy so that I can have it for my next Romo conversation with an adversary. This really does need to get published somewhere.

    insert emoticon of smiley bowing down in unworthiness...
    percyhoward likes this.
  7. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    ESPN and others meaning just about the entire football world except Cowboy FANS and Romosexuals have declared that Romo's record in win or go home games is 1-6. That record wasn't dreamed up it's a fact but it pains many Cowboy FANS because it sheds a negative light on Romo. Every win or go home loss added to his record keeps reinforcing the perception many have of him. QB's are judged by their won/loss record especially in win or go home games it's always been like that it's not something that was created just for Romo. Receiving a brunt of the blame and glory is the nature of the position because a QB's play influences the outcome of games more than any player on the field especially in this pass happy era.

    Ever since football became a sport QB's have received most of the credit for their teams success and most of the blame for the lack there of. This is why most Heisman winners in college football have been QB's and most NFL league and SB MVP's have been QB's. Most of the #1 overall picks in the draft have been QB's and anyone who follows football knows especially in a pass first league you have no chance of winning a championship unless you have a QB who can play at an exceptionally high level when it's down to win or go home. Most every make or break game comes down to a QB having to make a play. The last 3 SB's have come down to QB's having to make plays in the end. A great QB can elevate the play of their entire team if their teammates have confidence in them.

    If you remove Aaron Rodgers from the Packers, Tom Brady from the Pats and Peyton Manning from the Broncos none of those teams would be nearly as good. The Cowboys wouldn't be able to manage 8 wins without the productivity/escapability and playmaking skills of Tony Romo. Nothing can change the fate of a franchise like a QB. The Cowboys were bridesmaids until Staubach came along and the Saints were the Aint's until Drew Brees took over. A team can become great or awful depending on who they have behind center. There's a reason QB's are the highest paid players in the NFL. Romo's win or go home record is only an issue to Cowboy FANS and Romosexuals because it's 1-6 and not 6-1.
  8. DejectedFan1996

    DejectedFan1996 Active Member

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    Keep in mind that Cowboys fans claim Barry Sanders isn't better than Emmitt Smith because "he wasn't a winner" and ironically enough, defend Romo's 1-6 elimination game record and contribute that record to the team.
  9. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    The main problem with the Cowboys ever since Jimmy left has been the coaching. The Cowboys have gone through 6 HC's since Jimmy left and it's resulted in ONE playoff win the past 18 years. The last 3 seasons the coaching hasn't been acceptable to say the least. Wade was such a cream puff his players quit on him which resulted in him being the only Cowboys HC ever fired during the season. Garrett hasn't even won as many games as Wade did his first 2 seasons in Dallas. So far he's been a step down from Wade and no better than Campo in my opinion. If Garrett can only manage 8 wins per season with Romo the most productive QB in franchise history I doubt he could have managed 5 wins with Quincy Carter and Chad Hutchinson. Garrett inherited not only a solid QB but a future HOF TE and one of the greatest sackmasters in NFL history.

    Garrett's been under fire for his game management and his play calling and was stripped of that job in hopes it will help him manage games better to save Jerry from having to fire his second HC in 3 years. You're saying the Cowboys would be a bad team if it wasn't for their passing game but a lot of teams would be bad if it wasn't for their passing game where have you been? If you haven't figured it out by now the NFL is passing league most teams live and die off the arm of their QB. Do you think the Packers would have won a championship in 2010 and be the team they are if it wasn't for their passing game and the QB they have?

    That team would be crap without Aaron Rodgers because it sure as hell hasn't been their running game or defense that's led them to a 26-6 record the past 2 seasons. Do you think the Ravens would have won the SB last season if Joe Flacco didn't have a Joe Montana like postseason? This isn't the 70's and 80's where 4 yards and a cloud of dust and a great defense will win you a championship. The NFL is a different game today than it was 20 + years ago. It's a QB driven league and most of the top teams are winning by either airing it out with top 5 QB's or they have a duel threat QB who can burn you through the air and on the ground.
  10. Idgit

    Idgit Ice up, son. Ice up! Staff Member

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    I've heard this, but it's hardly the prevailing opinion as to why Smith was the better player of the two.
  11. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    Correction: Since Jimmy left and not counting the success Switzer had with Jimmy's teams the Cowboys have won one playoff game in 16 years under the last 5 HC's the team has had.
  12. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    Sanders was arguably the greatest pure runner ever but Emmitt was the more complete back. Emmitt had much more of a nose for the endzone than Sanders. Emmitt was great in short yardage situations and around the goal line. The Lions use to take Barry out occasionally around the goal line because of his tendency to lose yards. Emmitt could suck the life out of a defense by pounding away for chunks of yards. He had tremendous leg drive and balance and his will was unmatched. Sanders didn't perform that great in the playoffs. He was held to -1 yards in 94 vs the Packers in the playoffs. Most rate Sanders ahead of Emmitt and it's understandable the guy was a beautiful flashy runner who's highlights left you mesmerized. To his credit he produced on some bad Detroit teams. The big negative for me with Sanders was his lack of passion and enthusiasm.

    He never looked happy or excited about playing the game especially at the end of his career. He never liked attention and looked almost disappointed when he won the Heisman. He had a very unusual deadpan demeanor for a big time NFL player and quite honestly it didn't surprise me when he quit the game. Emmitt loved being on the big stage. Sanders may have gained a few more yards in Dallas than Emmitt but I don't think the Cowboys would have been as great a team with him. Emmitt had no quit in him he had the heart of a lion that's what made him a special player.
  13. jobberone

    jobberone Orangutans make great guitarists Staff Member

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    I'm telling you it was the one armed man who is responsible.

    Some of this stuff reads like a conspiracy theory. :D
  14. IrishAnto

    IrishAnto Well-Known Member

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    Undoubtedly the QB was the main reason for the Packers and Ravens success in their recent championship runs; however you underestimate the impact of their respective defences.
    Both could one thing the Cowboys defense has largely been unable to do for quite a few years.
    Generate turnovers.
    If Kiffin’s defense can do a good job in this, I feel “Romo’s” record will improve from 1-6.
  15. Everson24

    Everson24 Well-Known Member

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    Man, That was some good reading. Nice job Percy. ESPN and NFL Network need to read this one.
  16. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Keep in mind that the 1-6 record isn't being defended, it's being explained.

    A team's W-L record is, of course, attributable to that team, and there's no defending 1-6. So it isn't a "defense of Romo's record" but rather a clarification of whose record we're actually talking about, and a reminder of why the team even has a record the last two seasons.
  17. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    W-L is a team stat, being misapplied as an individual stat in this case. And yes, it's common practice.
  18. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    A W/L record is applied to pitchers, baseball managers, QB's and HC's because their decisions and performances have a big influence on the outcome of games. Their fate with their teams and their place in history is determined by their won/loss record especially in postseason. Tom Landry, Don Shula, Chuck Noll and many other HC's are considered great HC's because of their W/L record and postseason success. I don't hear any Cowboy FANS complaining that Landry's W/L record is a misapplied stat. You don't hear any Cowboy FANS complaining that Staubach's or Aikman's W/L record during the regular season and postseason is a misapplied stat . Do you know why? lol Lombardi never took a snap on the field for the Packers but he has his name on the SB trophy because his teams won 5 championships. It's his W/L record especially in championship games that made him the legendary coach he is.

    He was a product of his players like all HC's and received a lot of the credit for their wins. Any player who touches the ball every single snap or inning is going to have a big influence on the outcome of a game and will to be judged by championships and their W/L record. A W/L record is only a misapplied stat to the Romo apologists who go out of their way to put all the blame for the Cowboys 1-6 elimination game record under him on the team and none of it on Romo. They blame everyone of his 12 turnovers on the team and none on him. They give him all the credit when he plays great and wins and put all the blame for his poor performances on the team when he loses.
  19. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    Their defenses naturally played a part in their success but neither team would have had a chance without outstanding QB play. The Ravens defense was only ranked 2 spots higher than the Cowboys defense last season but granted they force turnovers and the Cowboys don't. The Ravens won the SB last season with one of the weakest defenses they've had in years due to Flacco elevating his game during the postseason. He had to play virtually flawless during the postseason for the Ravens to achieve what they did last season. They would have had no chance to even reach the SB had the same bus driving Joe Flacco showed up from a couple of years ago.

    As for the Packers no QB in the league does more with less than Aaron Rodgers. In 2011 the Pack went 15-1 off his arm. The only game the Packers lost during the regular season that year was due to Rodgers only off game. They got beat in the playoffs that season again due to Rodgers being off his game. NFL games have turned into a duel between opposing QB's and the QB who plays the best their team usually wins. Rodgers lost to Kaepernick in the playoffs last season due to Kaepernick's 444 total yards. Romo's 1-6 win or go home record will only improve if he stops turning the ball over especially in critical situations.

    If he had 12 TD's in his 7 elimination game performances instead of 12 turnovers I'll guarantee you his elimination game record would be better than what it is. The only win or go home game he won he didn't have a single turnover...coincidence? The Cowboys defense has played terrible when it's all been on the line but putting the D back on the field repeatedly after Romo turnovers hasn't helped their cause any. Almost 70 yards of Alfred Morris's 200 yards rushing in the season finale last season came after Romo's 3 turnovers.
  20. CoCo

    CoCo Well-Known Member

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    Middle ground please. Balance please.

    Agreed, its not totally absurd to look at a players W/L record as some indication of the quality of their play. The key is some indication, not THE indication. It's finding balance. The Romo critics don't want to talk about his overall W/L record. They want that "go home" record because they want a stick to beat him with. Like Phil Simms said, no one had even heard of win or go home games until Romo. It was a stat created just for him because they couldn't get traditional stats to say what they wanted to say. I went to ESPN to look at Romo's career stats - there is nothing there for W/L record and certainly nothing like "win or go home" record. Instead, you have Comp % TD's INT's yards etc. The traditional benchmarks. Romo stacks up VERY well there. So that is discarded in favor of something else. He's a choker! Lets look at 4th qtr performance, oops he just got stronger. Then lets look somewhere else.

    I get your point and its an ok point though a bit apples and oranges with some of your examples IMO.
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