Discussion in 'NFL Zone' started by Stryker44, Jan 3, 2013.
Did Hos just call Russell Wilson, Justin Wilson? Say it ain't so
I believe he was playing around hence the term great forgotten rookie wb
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*QB. darn thumbpad
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The Seahawks are gonna beat the Skins by 14+.
Russell Wilson > RG3
skins will get destroyed
My model suggests the game will be close, but that model uses no offensive stats of any kind.
I avoid them because because the confidence for both offensive and defensive stats, in predicting NFL playoff games, is about 85% ( p circa 0.15). Most PhD stats guys like to say a stat becomes predictive around 95% ( p less than 0.05).
But we'll use some of the 85% solutions and crunch the numbers to see what they say. You can relate point spreads to win probabilities through logits, via a formula I published here..
add 3 points to WAS because they're the home team.
12.23 - 6.42 = 5.92
Seattle's advantage is about 6 points via SRS, leading to a probability equal to the inverse logit of 5.92*0.4054/3.0 = 0.7986. The inverse logit of 0.7986 comes out to be 0.698, or about a 70% chance of winning.
That's one approach.
Another would be Pythagoreans. Let's see.
Seattle has a Pythagorean of 0.787 and Washington has one of 0.573.
HFA probability (playoffs) is about 0.60
So, Seattle probability product, unnormalized, is:
0.787 x ( 1 - 0.573) x ( 1 - 0.60 )
0.572 x ( 1 - 0.787 ) x 0.60
The ratio of these two terms represents the advantage of one over the other, but people like their probabilities normalized to a value of 1..
Seattle's probability of winning becomes
0.787 * 0.427 * 0.4
0.787 * 0.427 * 0.4 + 0.572 * 0.213 * 0.6
that value is 0.647
The logit of 0.647 is 0.6059
Point spread = 3.0*0.6059/0.405465 is about 4.5 points.
Brian Burke figures Seattle's advantage to be about 52%, and that's what my model predicts as well. So the predictions are all over the place. By tomorrow, you can check what Football Outsiders says about these two teams, and the odds of winning.
It'll be a close game I think, but very winnable for Washington. I don't want to come off as one of the "We're going to stop Wilson and the Seachickens!" crew but the Seahawks aren't the same team on the road.
Their defense is *very* good but you can run on them. There are only 5 defenses in the NFL that give up more yards per carry rushing. There have just been a lot of teams that get behind and give up on the run to try and catch up to them so the yards per game total isn't nearly as bad. Obviously Washington has the best running game in the NFL and are more than happy to keep on rushing.
Supposedly RG3 is 100% and the only reason he's limited in games and looks funny running is that knee brace is pretty heavy and limits the motion of his knee, taking away a little speed. It's unlikely but possible he could play without it.
If the game was on the road in Seattle I'd have a pretty bad feeling about it but I like the coin toss feeling of it at FedEx. I'd be more surprised if Seattle blows out Washington then if Washington were to blow out Seattle. In the end though I think it'll be a close, good game.
The Seahawks are going to get out coached.
The Redskins beat those guys last year with friggin Rex Grossman for a QB and Roy Helu for a running back ; none of them are seeing snaps this year. Their best receiver was Fred Davis . Also, Seattle's running D was better then too.
And I don't buy into the Wilson hype. He's being assisted by a top ranked defense and a veteran pro bowl RB, while Bob has had to carry a pitiful D on his back and work with a rookie RB himself.
I'm gonna assume for now RGIII will not be a 100%....plus i cant see anyway Morris runs for 200 yards this week, Ill pick Seattle.
Terrible mathcup for the skynyrds.
Wilson and that running back they got will allow them to move the ball at will on the Washingtons' bad defense. Unlike the cowboys, Seattle is healthy so they won't have injuries that make them lose the game.
Seattle's defense is superb against the run and pass. "Wut about RG-3D? How will they defend him, duuurrr?" Well, to answer that hopeless question, remember that Seattle's defense practices all week, every week this past year, against Wilson, who is like RG-cubed, except better. So they are prepared and won't have a problem. Besides, RG-13 is gimp and not playing well. Anyone watching him since he came back from the knee hit can see his passes are way off and high. I think that hit got in his head and now he has happy feet, but we'll see.
Anyway, the Seattle CB's will have no problem with the skidz no name receivers and Albert Morris will have no room to run because they can put 8 in the box and tee off on him all game.
Dumbsheet is my favorite poster here.
Didnt realize the Cowboys' OFFENSE was greatly injured.
D' Hall was contenting making Dez his XXXXX after the T-Day game prior to him getting hurt. Murry was a non-factor. OhNO Romo looked like a skitish school girl with our blitz. And Miles was miles away. Wasn't your offense putting up major yards and points the last 6 games? No worries. We took care of you and your vaunted offense.
Seattle also has a bunch of NO NAME receivers. Only reason anyone knows them is cause of the scab refs giving them that bogus hail mary at the end of the GB game. MeShaw is the only know quantity. And is going against a top notch run defense. Wilson while having a incredible showing the past several weeks still makes a ton of bad decisions as his interception rate show. Never the less, Seattle as a whole doesn't play nearly as well as they do when they are at home. Those dang stats getting in the way again to your warped view of the game.
On the Skins offense, we're still 4th in the league even with a gimp RG3. Morris is running hard and strong. Garcon get's better ever game. As for your weak claim of RG3 throwing wide and high, just shows your ignorance of the Skins offense. Skins didn't need to throw on you this past Sunday. We just kept handing it to Morris who basically ran the same plays over and over and over again. Why throw the ball when our running back is ripping off 4 or 5 yards a rush killing the clock? By the way...didn't RG3 run for over 60 yards against the boys on that gimp knee? But hey, you are named Dumbsheet what else should we expect?
I hope the Seahawks keep 8 men in the box. We'll eat them up.
Redskins have a just as good an opportunity to advance to the next round as Seattle does.
Hey bro, don't hate, congratulate!
For you other cowboy fans, I hate talking like this but this guy brings out the worst in me. My sincere apologies.
We also beat the Seahawks in 2011. How did we fare against them in 2012? Last year doesn't matter.
RG3 knocked out of game
if this game were in Seattle, I would pick the Seahawks by at least 3 TDs. However, it is in Washington. I still feel the Seahawks will win, but it will probably be a close game until late in the 4th, when Seattle extends it to about a 14 to 17 pt margin of victory.
I think Seattle is a dirty team. And, I think they will win.
It'll be a close game. I think everyone forgets the Seahawks were a pathetic 3-5 on the road. Even our mediocre team did better.
Skins win 18-17 then get annihilated in the next round
I don't think anyone has forgotten who Russell Wilson is by a longshot.
Pulling for the Skins but Seahawks will win this one
I did. Typo, thank you.