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Zogby, 2pt Obama lead

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by dbair1967, Oct 8, 2008.

  1. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Glad I'm not the only one who saw that, lol.
  2. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    It is intentional...or at least I have used it many times for a laugh by combining the old rocket scientist and brain surgeon lines.
  3. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

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    Why don't you make like a tree and get outta here...
  4. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    Now Biff
  5. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

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    I would have been disappointed had you not gotten that one... :D
  6. dbair1967

    dbair1967 Arch Defender

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    I heard that today too, they also noted the same Gallup poll had Gore up by 11pts on this day in 2000 as well. Interesting isnt it?
  7. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    That's the problem with doing nation wide polling, it doesn't yield accurate results. State by state electoral projections are the most accurate way to go and even those are far from perfect. The only time national polling yields reliable results is when you can track steady trends and an 11 point lead for Obama certainly isn't inline with the trends, but then, neither is a 1.9 point Obama lead.

    The political landscape of the United States is far too partisan these days to have someone win 60+ percent of the popular vote or 40+ percent of the eligible vote. Barring any new terrorism by William Ayers, I Imagine Obama will finish with 51-53% of the popular vote and will win rather handily in the electoral college.
  8. dbair1967

    dbair1967 Arch Defender

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    I honestly dont believe any of the polls are accuarate, regardless of who does them. I dont care what people say, calling 300, 500 or a 1000 people doesnt represent what the masses truly think. Especially with the tendency of so many pollers to call into areas they know are heavily slanted the way they want their info to read.
  9. Maikeru-sama

    Maikeru-sama Mick Green 58

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    I agree.

    There are too many ways to manipulate polls.
  10. Bonecrusher#31

    Bonecrusher#31 Active Member

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  11. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

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    You are both right... polling IS a science, but it is an inexact science if you aren't thorough with your research...

    True objectivity is attributed to many factors. The question, the methodology, the sample, the sample size, the diversity of the sample. All are major factors...

    I'm certainly not doubting Zogby as he is one of the best in the business, but I heard him say one time that he missed a few because he wasn't objective enough with the sample. He is an admitted liberal but I trust his work more than most. Gallup is all over the place and most don't pay much attention to them...

    Gallup called me on behalf of one of the major networks... I think it was CBS but I have slept since then, and wanted to survey me. I was all for that as it was my major. They proceeded to ask me if I supported the Bush plan, that would cut support to the homeless and low-income families or the Clinton plan that would favor lower income Americans. I asked their methodology and why they would weight such a question in that manner. They hung up on me.

    I started watching the news and, sure enough, the poll came up. The graphic was "Those that support the Bush Plan vs. the Clinton Plan... I think you know the answer to this one...
  12. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    Dont believe me, just look at the McCain campaign to see if the polls are right.

    Do you actually believe that if this was a 2% race that McCain/Palin would be calling Obama a terrorist every 30 seconds. Would their campaign aids be leaking info to the press that this is their last shot, they have to go personal or they will lose.

    Do you actually believe they would be doing this if it actually was a 2% race?

    While I do not think Obama is actually up 11% as Gallup says, I do believe that he is up 6-8% nationally.

    Besides, it is the electorial map that decides the winner and even Karl Rove's map has Obama winning right now. I think NBC has Obama with a 100 electoral vote lead.

    Candidates usually dont make up that type of deficit in a couple of weeks, especially if they blow the first two debates.
  13. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

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    First, they've never called Barack Obama a terrorist. They've questioned his associations. Thats perfectly legit.

    Second... Like I said, if the race is tightening, it will take a few days for the electoral map to catch up. Again, IF the race is tightening. If you read my other post I said the race may not be tightening.
  14. dbair1967

    dbair1967 Arch Defender

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    October 8th 2000...Al Gore up 11pts per a Gallup poll

    just a reminder

    polls dont realyl mean jack right now, especially with so many being manipulated by left leaning pollsters and media
  15. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

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    Eh, I don't think its about left leaning pollsters. Rassmussen is actually a conservative pollster, and Obama is +6 on that poll.

    Its just the way the election is right now, it can still swing. A month is forever in an election... We may or may not be starting to see a swing now, time will tell.
  16. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    I agree that 11% is way too high, I believe it is probably 6-8% right now. Rasmussen (very conservative poll, not a lefty as you say the others are) has Obama up 6%, right in line to where I said in my previous post I thought was the correct number right now.

    My point was that McCain's campaign is acting as if it is down 6-8%. If the race truely was 2% as Zogby has it right now, then noway would the McCain campaign being acting this way. If the race is basically a margin of error race, which 2% would be, you dont have a campaign advisor tell the media that you have to go negative or you will lose.

    That would be total imcompetence.
  17. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    McCain has to stay aggressive and start calling again and again for Obama to explain his ties to all the suspects previously identified. That is his best bet= that and bringing up his liberal ties to people who helped start this financial mess- Frank, Schumer, etc.
  18. SuspectCorner

    SuspectCorner Bromo

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    Really now, the last thing the McCain campaign wants anybody thinking about is the economy. Laughable. Yes, lets discuss the 80-or-so current and former lobbyists on the McCain staff. Doh!

    You'd better just stick to the now overly-familiar baseless and virile email carpetbombing spread of Repug misinformation RE shiny objects like Ayers, Rev. Wright, Muslimism, etc.

    Are you allergic to the Google search engine - or do ya just need somebody to explain the search results to you? :D
  19. NinePointOh

    NinePointOh Active Member

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    O RLY?

    [IMG]

    Contrary to popular belief around here, the polls showed both Kerry and Gore behind at this point and never showed them ahead at any time between now and the election. Further, you'll note that in both 2000 and 2004, the actual vote was within 3% -- the margin of error -- of the polls. The bigger variance was in 2000, when Gore actually outperformed the polls by winning the popular vote.

    Obama is far ahead of where either Kerry or Gore were at any point during their elections.
  20. Maikeru-sama

    Maikeru-sama Mick Green 58

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    I never agree with Burmfard but he is correct Suspect.

    He needs to get with some financial experts and start coming up with a plan that he can promote to fix the economy. I also thought he did a horrible job explaining his $350 B economic package to buy up mortgages.

    If I was John McCain's campaign manager, I would be talking about how I would help the individual get through tough times, my experience, the dangers of having Democrats controlling Washington (especially when the country is running HUGE deficits and the economy is horrible).

    If he went with that strategy, I gurantee you he could make a comeback, but I think his campaign will still be one of confusion and I think they will continue with Ayers, Wright (which is fair game), anti-american, hussein and muslim extremism (which I think is stupid).

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