Zogby: Clinton back in front in Iowa

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by jterrell, Dec 5, 2007.

  1. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Clinton leads the Democratic race here with 27%, followed closely by Barack Obama of Illinois at 24% and John Edwards of North Carolina with 21%. There has been very little movement in the Democratic race here since last month, as the front–runners essentially stood still and two lower–tier candidates – Senator Joe Biden of Delaware and Congressman Dennis Kucinich of Ohio – gained two points each.

    In fact, this race has remained remarkably stable for the past year. Zogby telephone polling in Iowa last January showed it to be a three–way race with 13% undecided – now, 11% say they have yet to make up their minds.

    Since last month, however, Clinton was able to solidify her standing among some likely caucus–goers by increasing the number of people who said she would be their second choice. This is a critical factor in the Democratic caucus in Iowa. In the caucuses, a first round of “balloting” is conducted, and those candidates who do not win at least 15% support are ruled “unviable” and supporters are directed to a second choice among those who remained “viable” before a second round of “balloting” is conducted.

    Last month, Obama and Edwards were much more preferred as a second choice among those candidates who appear to be unviable under Democratic caucus rules. Clinton appears to be gaining ground among those who might consider experience to be an important factor in choosing a nominee – she wins the lion’s share of support among those who make Biden their first choice, and she does well among those who would first choose New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

    Among those who make Obama their first choice, Edwards is their second choice, and vice versa. Among those who make Clinton their first choice, Obama is the favorite second choice.

    Among independents who said they would caucus with the Democrats, Obama leads with 31%, followed by Edwards at 26% and Clinton at 19%.

    Among Iowa women, Clinton leads with 33%, followed by Obama and Edwards, both at 23%. Among men, Obama leads with 26%, followed by Clinton at 20% and Edwards at 19%. Richardson wins 10% and Biden 9% among men.
  2. burmafrd

    burmafrd Benched

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    I figured Hilary had Iowa pretty much in the bag- but know it looks like it will actually be a fight- and she could lose. Or just barely win, which would almost be as bad.
  3. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    If Hillary wins Iowa she will win every primary.

    If she loses Iowa and NH she'll still win the nomination but it could get interesting.

    The Repubs are really more interesting with Huckabee and Guiliani. Romney is around but he doesn't really qualify as interesting. Thompson should have kept his day job on Law and Order.


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