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Zogby Poll: Clinton losing against top 5 GOP candidates

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Mavs Man, Nov 27, 2007.

  1. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    Note: They have the poll numbers in a chart form at the link.

    Zogby Poll: Obama, Edwards Strong but Clinton Slips Against GOPers

    General election match-ups show the New York Senator would lose against every top Republican

    UTICA, New York – A new Zogby Interactive survey shows Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York would lose to every one of the top five Republican presidential contenders, representing a reversal of fortune for the national Democratic front–runner who had led against all prospective GOP opponents earlier this year.

    Meanwhile, fellow Democrats Barack Obama of Illinois and John Edwards of North Carolina would defeat or tie every one of the Republicans, this latest survey shows.

    Figures from the earlier surveys cited in this news release are from Zogby International telephone surveys, including 1,012 likely voters in the July survey and 993 likely voters in the May survey.

    The online survey included 9,150 likely voters nationwide, and was conducted Nov. 21–26, 2007. It carries a margin of error of +/– 1.0 percentage points.
  2. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    New poll shows Clinton trails top 2008 Republicans
    Mon Nov 26, 2007 1:46pm EST

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton trails five top Republican presidential contenders in general election match-ups, a drop in support from this summer, according to a poll released on Monday.

    Clinton's top Democratic rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards, still lead Republicans in hypothetical match-ups ahead of the November 4, 2008, presidential election, the survey by Zogby Interactive showed.

    Clinton, a New York senator who has been at the top of the Democratic pack in national polls in the 2008 race, trails Republican candidates Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee by three to five percentage points in the direct matches.

    In July, Clinton narrowly led McCain, an Arizona senator, and held a five-point lead over former New York Mayor Giuliani, a six-point lead over former Tennessee Sen. Thompson and a 10-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Romney.

    She was not matched against the fast-rising Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, in the July poll.

    The results come as other national polls show the race for the Democratic nomination tightening five weeks before the first contest in Iowa, which kicks off the state-by-state nomination battles in each party.

    Some Democrats have expressed concerns about the former first lady's electability in a race against Republicans. The survey showed Clinton not performing as well as Obama and Edwards among independents and younger voters, pollster John Zogby said.

    "The questions about her electability have always been there, but as we get close this suggests that is a problem," Zogby said.

    Obama, an Illinois senator, and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, both hold narrow leads over the Republican contenders in the hypothetical 2008 match-ups.

    "It all points to a very competitive general election at a time when many people think the Democrats are going to win the White House," Zogby said.

    The poll of 9,355 people had a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point. The interactive poll surveys individuals who have registered to take part in online polls.
  3. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Oh my. Me, I'm more of a Barack fan. To put this in Cowboy terms, he's Jason Garrett, the young and somewhat raw candidate with great potential. Hillary on the other hand has insights into the presidency that no other candidates have and a record in the Senate that is designed to appeal to the swing voters who decide every election, making her more like Wade Phillips.
  4. heavyg

    heavyg Active Member

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    This is why I have said I hope and pray Hillary gets the Democratic nomination. The Republican party could run anyone they want to and defeat her. If the Dems want a race they better go with someone other than Hillary
  5. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the Republicans have done such an awesome job over the past 8 years. Why would anyone want any sort of change at the top?
  6. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    We'll see what gets done when the bills come due.

    This was a poll of a whopping 1k people and is the first to show Hillary trailing any Repubs.
  7. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    With a properly drawn sample, a poll of 9,000 people (as this one had) will produce a 1% sampling error. You really don't gain a hell of a lot of accuracy moving to a larger sample -- you'd need nearly 40,000 to drop to a 0.5% margin of error. So the sample size isn't an issue.
  8. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    Right.

    In response to jterrell, I think the reason you haven't seen Hillary losing before is because it was presented as her versus a nameless GOPer (Hillary or a Republican? uh, Hillary.).

    But when it's presented as name vs. name, she has consistently drawn even or polled worse than the GOP rival.

    That is where Edwards and Obama have the advantage, since, when polled, voters still prefer them over any of the Republican candidates. But there is still a year to go so perceptions can change.
  9. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    A. Go learn about sampling error before you pull the "right" card

    B. Looking at the earlier Zogby polls your statement about consistently polling worse on a name by name basis is simply not correct - she was better than Romney and Thompson in both earlier polls -- and the difference between her and the other candidates was statistically indistinguishable (i.e., can't say one is clearly preferred) because of the margin on error on those two earlier polls.

    http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1393
  10. theebs

    theebs Believe!!!!

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    My hometown Utica New York. I know the mr. zogby of the zogby poll, very good guy. Made that guy a bunch of fruit baskets about 10 years ago when I was in school and working in the store!
  11. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    I thought 'right' meant I was agreeing with your post, unless you are now refuting what you wrote.

    Or, you thought I meant this...

    [IMG]

    Riiiiight.

    Thompson didn't formally enter the race until September - those earlier polls were from July and May (of course, that was also during Thompson's "unofficially official not ready to announce but kind of presidential candidacy" period). McCain and Guiliani have had back and forth leads dating back to July and May. Huckabee obviously wasn't even in the conversation prior to his recent rise.

    As for Romney, well, okay.

    She's done much better in recent months. I looked at a Gallup Poll tracking her vs. Guiliani dating since March that's been back and forth. He and McCain poll better against her than Romney or Thompson.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/102862/Democratic-Candidates-Look-Good-Latest-2008-Trial-Heats.aspx
  12. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    I just thought you were being a smart ***.

    Officially entering the race has really little bearing on this
  13. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    It wasn't 9k, it was 1k.

    It is 9k for all the polls together not this one they are using numbers from.
  14. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Bro, that's simply not true.

    Zogby here, himself, presents that he has taken 3 polls showing candidate versus candidate. Hillary was handily beating every Repub named except Guiliani in prior polls.

    The difference now is the Dems have went on the offensive and attacked Hillary, something Obama especially, had not done previously.

    In the end there is really only one relevant candidate: Hillary.

    People will vote for her or against her but she is the only one of relevance.

    None of the other names matter a bit quite honestly.
    As the Repubs contest gets heated and people actually pay attention to the criticisms leveled at those candidates Hillary's numbers will rise.

    The polls on realclearpolitics.com still show Hillary leading every imaginable category though it is very close in Iowa. If Hillary wins Iowa then it is all over for the Dems and any bloodshed will quickly pass while the Repubs will just be getting heated up.

    Thompson is an afterthought candidate who will get zero real support. His followers are few and far between and frankly are the least cognizant voters alive if only because anyone paying attention would vote elsewhere for a candidate who at least attempts a campaign.
  15. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Let me clear up two things.

    1st. Aber, My bad it is 9K people in this poll.

    2nd. The polls previously were phone polls while this poll is an online survey poll of people who registered to take a survey.

    There is a pretty big difference in methodology here.
    I'll take this one with a grain of salt until I see more data suggesting it is accurate.
  16. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    We're in the political zone where that is common, so I'm not surprised by you taking it that way. Though those response are typically full of :lmao2: type icons.

    As for Thompson, you're right - he did much better before he announced (and actually had to debate, campaign, etc.).
  17. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    It seems like over the summer she really started to pull away, and prior to that it was much closer.

    Hillary has more of a negative reaction to those outside the DP compared to Obama and Edwards. But that is a moot point, as you said - the others don't have a chance to catch her for the nomination.

    I don't believe Hillary will thump her Repub opponent or vice versa - I expect the race to be closer than 2004.
  18. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    To me this is a shame because Hillary is clearly the most moderate Democratic candidate. Obama and Edwards are both far more populist and liberal. Ultimately I expect that point to sink in as we have a good ways until the general election is decided. The Repub candidate has to navigate the morass that is the multi-faceted candidate field and come out with enough left to challenge Hillary and I just find that unlikely.

    In the end I will be far more disappointed if someone whose politics mirror say Brain voted Repub than I would say Abersonc. Hillary on the issues is very much down the middle. It's easy enough to charge she isn't being truthful but she has been presenting this moderate issue stance for longer than her presidency would last if she did flop after her election.
  19. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    Unless one of the GOP candidates wins the nomination and whips up the conservative base, I see more people coming out to vote for Hillary than people coming out to vote for ABBH (AnyBody But Hillary).

    It'll be a rerun of 2004 and 1996.
  20. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    I think she will fare slightly better than Bush in 04 because she will easily win the big cities with lots of delegates: NYC, LA, Chicago. She can easily win Florida and Nevada which would give her the win if otherwise normal blue-red holds true.

    Texas will be interesting to watch. Hillary actually polls high here; much more so than other Dem candidates and with a huge influx of votes in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio she could make this state worth watching.

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