Grading this draft class

[DanA]

The more I look at this draft the more I think we're not in a great spot. IMO we are just outside the range of blue-chip players. I could see one of two reaches leaving

Blue Chip (11):
QB: Burrows, Tua
OT: Becton, Weifs
WR: Lamb, Juedy
DT: Brown, Kinlaw
DE: Young
CB: Okudah
LB: Simmons

1st round Grades (5):
QB: Herbert
OT: Thomas, Wills,
DE: Epenesa
S: Delpit

1st/2nd round (12):
QB: Love
OT: Jones, Jackson
WR: Ruggs, Shenault, Raegor, Higgins, Jefferson,
CB: Fulton, Henderson*
S: McKinney
DE/OLB: Chaisson

*Have to look into tackling effort issues

Top 50 (12):
RB: Swift
CB: Arnette, Diggs, Gladney, Danzler, Igbinoghene
WR: Aiyuk, V.Jefferson
LB: Murray, Queen
DE/OLB: Gross-Matos, Lewis

 

[cnuball21]

I'm confused Dan...you've got more blue chippers than 1st rounders? I agree with you 99% of the time but think it should be switched. IMO, you get 5-8ish blue chippers in each draft.

I can't speak to the OTs bc I haven't watched any, but IMO:

Joe
Young
Okudah
Jeudy
Lamb
Simmons

Brown is really close IMO, but for a DT to be a blue chipper he needs to have massive sack, pressure and TFL numbers which he does not. He's a clear top 10 for me, and Kinlaw is just behind him in the top 15 if there aren't injury concerns.

 

[beware_d-ware]

Haven't watch any offensive linemen either, but this is how I'd break it down

Blue Chip, Can't-Miss, Guaranteed Star
Joe Burrow (he doesn't feel like it, but when you start looking down the list of names, he's the best quarterback prospect in at least 5 years)
Chase Young
Okudah
Simmons

Zero questions (this + blue chip is probably the equivalent of an NFL team's first round grades)
QB: Tua
RB: N/A
WR: Jeudy, Ruggs,
OT: Just going to steal Dan's names and say Willis, Thomas, Bacton and Wirfs
OG: N/A
TE: N/A
DE: N/A
DT: Brown, Kinlaw
LB: N/A
CB: N/A
S: N/A

Easy-projection starter material, or massive-upside, reasonable risk gambles
QB: Herbert
RB: Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, Edwards-Helaire
WR: Lamb, Reagor, Higgins
TE: N/A
OT: Stole all of Dan's names earlier
OG: Ditto
OC: N/A
DE: Chaisson, YGM, Epenesa
DT: N/A
LB: Queen, Murray
CB: Diggs, Fulton
S: Delpit, McKinney, Winfield



I think Dan's right that we are outside of the true studs, if you will, but I also think this is a very deep draft and there's a lot of players in that tier right after them who look pro-ready.

Brown is really close IMO, but for a DT to be a blue chipper he needs to have massive sack, pressure and TFL numbers which he does not. He's a clear top 10 for me, and Kinlaw is just behind him in the top 15 if there aren't injury concerns.

I went through something similar. After seeing him in the Alabama game, I was on the "top 5, god of football" hype train, but after seeing more of his tape, I had to pump the brakes. He is huge and just surreally strong for a college player, but he doesn't penetrate the way you need a top 5 pick to. Bama's fixation on power running played directly to his strengths as a defender and let him show off in that game.

I don't think there's any chance that he fails in the NFL, worse case scenario is that he's like Vita Vea or Dexter Lawrence, but he doesn't break the meter like Chase Young or Okudah do. I mean, I think Marcus Mosher said you want a DE that averages 1 TFL per game. Chase Young averaged twice that, and he's probably going to test as a 95+ percent NFL athlete. If you're graphing measurable vs production, Chase Young is so far off in the top right corner that he's nearly off the chart. Brown is great, but he's not on that same level.

 

[Oh_Canada]

I agree with most of this, however Raegor, Ruggs and Henderson are first rounders all day for me.

 

[cnuball21]

Haven't watch any offensive linemen either, but this is how I'd break it down

Blue Chip, Can't-Miss, Guaranteed Star
Joe Burrow (he doesn't feel like it, but when you start looking down the list of names, he's the best quarterback prospect in at least 5 years)
Chase Young
Okudah
Simmons

Zero questions (this + blue chip is probably the equivalent of an NFL team's first round grades)
QB: Tua
RB: N/A
WR: Jeudy, Ruggs,
OT: Just going to steal Dan's names and say Willis, Thomas, Bacton and Wirfs
OG: N/A
TE: N/A
DE: N/A
DT: Brown, Kinlaw
LB: N/A
CB: N/A
S: N/A

Easy-projection starter material, or massive-upside, reasonable risk gambles
QB: Herbert
RB: Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, Edwards-Helaire
WR: Lamb, Reagor, Higgins
TE: N/A
OT: Stole all of Dan's names earlier
OG: Ditto
OC: N/A
DE: Chaisson, YGM, Epenesa
DT: N/A
LB: Queen, Murray
CB: Diggs, Fulton
S: Delpit, McKinney, Winfield



I think Dan's right that we are outside of the true studs, if you will, but I also think this is a very deep draft and there's a lot of players in that tier right after them who look pro-ready.



I went through something similar. After seeing him in the Alabama game, I was on the "top 5, god of football" hype train, but after seeing more of his tape, I had to pump the brakes. He is huge and just surreally strong for a college player, but he doesn't penetrate the way you need a top 5 pick to. Bama's fixation on power running played directly to his strengths as a defender and let him show off in that game.

I don't think there's any chance that he fails in the NFL, worse case scenario is that he's like Vita Vea or Dexter Lawrence, but he doesn't break the meter like Chase Young or Okudah do. I mean, I think Marcus Mosher said you want a DE that averages 1 TFL per game. Chase Young averaged twice that, and he's probably going to test as a 95+ percent NFL athlete. If you're graphing measurable vs production, Chase Young is so far off in the top right corner that he's nearly off the chart. Brown is great, but he's not on that same level.

I agree with most, but do you really have Ruggs over Lamb?

I’ve got Lamb about 20 slots higher.

 

[conner01]

I think the strength of this draft is more depth than super stars
Very deep WR class
Very weak TE class
Solid DB class
Not too bad oline
QB not that great to me

 

[DanA]

It's 90% the same. We are debating 2-3 guys and where to draw the line on blue-chip. I personally think this draft drops off a cliff after Kinlaw at 11 accepting that Herbert/Tua as QB's are graded differently.

And I'd take Kinlaw/Brown before Juedy/Lamb and have to think hard about Simmons.

I think the strength of this draft is more depth than super stars
Very deep WR class
Very weak TE class
Solid DB class
Not too bad oline
QB not that great to me

In this draft, I personally think you want to be drafting top 10, or trading back to gain picks in the late 2nd/early 3rd or even 4th round. In terms of position strength I would rank it:
Day 1 options
Best
1. OT
2. WR

Worst -
1. OG/OC
2. RB
3. DE

Day 2 options
Best
1. WR
2. CB

Worst:
1. QB
2. DE

Day 3 options
Best
1. WR
2. TE

Worst:
1. DE
2. DT

 

[cnuball21]

It's 90% the same. We are debating 2-3 guys and where to draw the line on blue-chip. I personally think this draft drops off a cliff after Kinlaw at 11 accepting that Herbert/Tua as QB's are graded differently.

And I'd take Kinlaw/Brown before Juedy/Lamb and have to think hard about Simmons.



In this draft, I personally think you want to be drafting top 10, or trading back to gain picks in the late 2nd/early 3rd or even 4th round. In terms of position strength I would rank it:
Day 1 options
Best
1. OT
2. WR

Worst -
1. OG/OC
2. RB
3. DE

Day 2 options
Best
1. WR
2. CB

Worst:
1. QB
2. DE

Day 3 options
Best
1. WR
2. TE

Worst:
1. DE
2. DT

Who would you trade up for and what kind of pick would be willing to give up to get there?

 

[dallas72]

I agree with most, but do you really have Ruggs over Lamb?

I’ve got Lamb about 20 slots higher.

Agree..Lamb could be a true #1...Ruggs is more like a D Jackson...alot of speed, not great routes maybe 35-40 catches a year

 

[dallas72]

Who would you trade up for and what kind of pick would be willing to give up to get there?

D Brown ..but there is Kinlaw( not sure about medical)...Elliott in 2-3rd rounds ....WR & CB deep draft ..slot of talent 1-3 rounds

 

[Creeper]

This draft class is a lot deeper and stronger than last year's draft class. Take a look back at the 2019 draft and you'll see what I mean.

 

[cnuball21]

Agree..Lamb could be a true #1...Ruggs is more like a D Jackson...alot of speed, not great routes maybe 35-40 catches a year

Agree 100%. I think Ruggs can a very solid #2 compliment WR. Not a 1.

 

[cnuball21]

D Brown ..but there is Kinlaw( not sure about medical)...Elliott in 2-3rd rounds ....WR & CB deep draft ..slot of talent 1-3 rounds

As of now it’s Brown and Simmons for me. I’d part ways with our 3rd.

Im also coming around to the argument of having 3 great WRs. I saw a twitter stat recently showing the last 10 SB winners all being in the top 5/8ish of passing. You could talk me into Jeudy/Lamb just because I think they are elite WR prospects.

 

[Risen Star]

It's a 16 player draft.

 

[visionary]

Who would you trade up for and what kind of pick would be willing to give up to get there?

As a general rule for the draft, if you’re not in the top 10, you trade up into the top 10 for only elite QB (if you don’t have one), elite DE or elite LOT

that’s it

therefore the only one I would trade up for would be to 5 for Tua if we haven’t signed Dak

 

[DanA]

Who would you trade up for and what kind of pick would be willing to give up to get there?

I would give up:
- A 4th for Simmons, Jeudy, Lamb
- A 3rd for Kinlaw, Brown or Okudah
- A 2nd for Young
- A 1st for Burrows

 

[beware_d-ware]

I agree with most, but do you really have Ruggs over Lamb?

I’ve got Lamb about 20 slots higher.

The way I see it, Ruggs is pretty much a lock to succeed. Brett Kollman did a really good video recently with DK Metcalf, where he showed with WRs who threaten corners vertically (mostly hulking, stiffer WRs like Dez, Calvin Johnson, and well, Metcalf), they don't need to run a huge route tree to make it. If you can beat them on a nine route and they back off, you only need to be able to run a few basic things like a hitch, post or slant to either steal the free yards they're giving up in cushion or catch them when they panic and start bailing.

Ruggs is fast enough to threaten any NFL corner vertically, and he's tougher and more physical than any other 4.2-ish freaky speed guy I can think of outside of Tyreek Hill. I think he's got an easy route to 1,000 yard seasons.

The biggest issue I have with Lamb is that he's really thin, and I don't think he's that fast. My guess is he'll run somewhere around a 4.5 at the Combine, and 180 lbs and 4.5 speed is not a great combination. If he scorches the track at the Combine then I'll give him a pass, but as of right now I'd consider it a question mark.

The level of defensive talent he faced in the Big 12 is also a question mark, as the playoff game vs LSU showed that the talent levels over there just don't compare to the big 4 or 5 CFB power brokers. That being said, Lamb was still able to get 120 yards even with a team literally imploding around him, so that is major points in his favor.

There's a lot to like with Lamb, but I don't consider him bust-proof in the same way as say Jeudy.

 

[cnuball21]

The way I see it, Ruggs is pretty much a lock to succeed. Brett Kollman did a really good video recently with DK Metcalf, where he showed with WRs who threaten corners vertically (mostly hulking, stiffer WRs like Dez, Calvin Johnson, and well, Metcalf), they don't need to run a huge route tree to make it. If you can beat them on a nine route and they back off, you only need to be able to run a few basic things like a hitch, post or slant to either steal the free yards they're giving up in cushion or catch them when they panic and start bailing.

Ruggs is fast enough to threaten any NFL corner vertically, and he's tougher and more physical than any other 4.2-ish freaky speed guy I can think of outside of Tyreek Hill. I think he's got an easy route to 1,000 yard seasons.

The biggest issue I have with Lamb is that he's really thin, and I don't think he's that fast. My guess is he'll run somewhere around a 4.5 at the Combine, and 180 lbs and 4.5 speed is not a great combination. If he scorches the track at the Combine then I'll give him a pass, but as of right now I'd consider it a question mark.

The level of defensive talent he faced in the Big 12 is also a question mark, as the playoff game vs LSU showed that the talent levels over there just don't compare to the big 4 or 5 CFB power brokers. That being said, Lamb was still able to get 120 yards even with a team literally imploding around him, so that is major points in his favor.

There's a lot to like with Lamb, but I don't consider him bust-proof in the same way as say Jeudy.

Lamb could run low 4.5s and is still draft him in the top 10. He’ll also continue to grow into his frame.

Dude runs quality routes, has good quickness and has elite ball skills / catch radius / body control.

 

[DanA]

Lamb could run low 4.5s and is still draft him in the top 10. He’ll also continue to grow into his frame.

Dude runs quality routes, has good quickness and has elite ball skills / catch radius / body control.

I think he's faster than that (mid 4.4's) but he is thin. He's fantastic tracking the ball though, I agree with that,

 

[DanA]

The way I see it, Ruggs is pretty much a lock to succeed. Brett Kollman did a really good video recently with DK Metcalf, where he showed with WRs who threaten corners vertically (mostly hulking, stiffer WRs like Dez, Calvin Johnson, and well, Metcalf), they don't need to run a huge route tree to make it. If you can beat them on a nine route and they back off, you only need to be able to run a few basic things like a hitch, post or slant to either steal the free yards they're giving up in cushion or catch them when they panic and start bailing.

Ruggs is fast enough to threaten any NFL corner vertically, and he's tougher and more physical than any other 4.2-ish freaky speed guy I can think of outside of Tyreek Hill. I think he's got an easy route to 1,000 yard seasons.

The biggest issue I have with Lamb is that he's really thin, and I don't think he's that fast. My guess is he'll run somewhere around a 4.5 at the Combine, and 180 lbs and 4.5 speed is not a great combination. If he scorches the track at the Combine then I'll give him a pass, but as of right now I'd consider it a question mark.

The level of defensive talent he faced in the Big 12 is also a question mark, as the playoff game vs LSU showed that the talent levels over there just don't compare to the big 4 or 5 CFB power brokers. That being said, Lamb was still able to get 120 yards even with a team literally imploding around him, so that is major points in his favor.

There's a lot to like with Lamb, but I don't consider him bust-proof in the same way as say Jeudy.

I see Lamb as a Dez Bryant/Michael Thomas type and my no.1 ahead of Jeudy. He's the type of guy I'd cringe seeing matched up on Awuzie. Juedy has a higher floor but I like Lamb and think he's going to have a bigger influence in the RedZone.