No Successful NFL Team Drafts Best Player Available

[foofighters]

2 things I know in my heart for certain. 1. If Romo does not fumble the snap, that team was going to be in the Super Bowl because the Rex Grossman led Bears offense was not going to hold up to the 2006 defense (they would not have won the Super Bowl vs. Manning Colts). 2. If Jerry would not have driven Parcells out with the TO mess and breaking out the anointing oil on Romo, Parcells would have taken the Cowboys with the defense he built and was building from 2003-2006 to the Super Bowl. After the 2007 Season the Cowboys had an NFL record 13 Pro Bowl Players and 5 were on defense (pass rush and secondary).

It's amazing how people remember that game. Parcells does nothing if Romo doesn't fumble. Why? The seahawks had a DB that was practically working at Subway a few weeks prior to that game and they didn't go after him. Remember that screen pass to Terry Glenn on the 1 yard line? How about those three plays that led to the fumbled snap? Two straight runs up the middle with MBIII that everyone knew was coming and then a question pass play to Witten where we were inches short (yes it was a bad spot). That pass to Witten to would define his career as the guy that could have the potential to come up short on critical 3rd downs. Parcells believed our NT was the answer but even though he was talented (I forget his name. He went crazy in Chicago) he was too small. And then there is the 13 pro bowl comment that everyone loves. That doesn't mean anything. and how many of those guys did anything after that year? Those guys went because of media hype. That's all.

 

[landroverking]

Never has such a long post(OP), said so little.

 

[blueblood70]

Tom Brady was 100 years now going on 200 years old in football years so QB was a prioritized need.

Who was in the Super Bowl last year and who was at home?

glossed right over the Rogers pick by none other then MM whos our coach now..they didnt NEED A QB, benched him for what 4years and now have another HOF qb because of it.. successful teams do take BPA when that player is deemed to be GREAT..
saw a mock where the jags trade out of 5 for 16 with ATL and Tua falls to them at 16, if I see TUa drop to 15 knowing hes being taken one pick ahead im trading up for him..he may not be lock nor is most, but he would be wort dgrabbing..

trade Dak 2 firsts or a great deal this year or next and we have a possible franchise qb under another rookie deal..thats smart ball..

btw Daks not Farve, rogers or brady so we dont have OUR Guy enough to pass on a Herbert or Tua at 15-17

look around the league doesnt matter if you are loaded at LB if Simmons falls to you guess what, YOU TAKE HIM..

 

[blueblood70]

It's amazing how people remember that game. Parcells does nothing if Romo doesn't fumble. Why? The seahawks had a DB that was practically working at Subway a few weeks prior to that game and they didn't go after him. Remember that screen pass to Terry Glenn on the 1 yard line? How about those three plays that led to the fumbled snap? Two straight runs up the middle with MBIII that everyone knew was coming and then a question pass play to Witten where we were inches short (yes it was a bad spot). That pass to Witten to would define his career as the guy that could have the potential to come up short on critical 3rd downs. Parcells believed our NT was the answer but even though he was talented (I forget his name. He went crazy in Chicago) he was too small. And then there is the 13 pro bowl comment that everyone loves. That doesn't mean anything. and how many of those guys did anything after that year? Those guys went because of media hype. That's all.

I STILL SAY WITTEN HAD THAT FIRST DOWN at the goal line refs made yet another bad call against us in the playoffs,,it was reviewed and not overturned,,BS!

 

[Flamma]

I don't think any team does a straight BPA. If Dallas traded back to the end of the first round and BPA called for a RB or QB while Ruiz was still on the board, are they picking the RB? Probably not.

 

[KJJ]

The biggest mistake teams make in the first round is picking for need especially at QB. When you pick for need you usually end up reaching and passing up much better players at other positions. The second biggest mistake is putting too much weight in combine and pro day workouts.

 

[xwalker]

I hear Cowboys fans talk a lot about drafting the best player available. No team is successful drafting the best player available (BPA). Ask the Detroit Lions who drafted Charles Rodgers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, and Calvin Johnson in almost consecutive drafts.

You draft the best available player of need (BAPON), ranking the players by grade, then by positions, ranking your needs in priority (prioritized needs), and then you make your BAPON draft board. You can trade up or down using BAPON but you better stick with the board. The 2005 draft that is on ESPN2 today shows how it worked correctly. Parcells wanted to change to a 3-4 Defense and need players. To go to a 3-4 D you better have and outstanding pass rusher at OLB that can also drop in coverage when needed. You also need a DL that can hold up at the line of scrimage and then be able to rush the passer (275 to +300 pound DL).

The Cowboys had DL as there no.1 priority position of need in 2005, and no. 2 was OLB. When the Cowboys came to pick in the 1st round of the 2005 draft, they had a dilemma. Demarcus Ware was the BAPON on the draft board, but the no.1 priority position of need fit was Marcus Spears, DL, LSU from Southern Lab High in Baton Rouge, and Nick Saban Coached. Parcell's loved Ware saying he reminded him of a retired LB in FL (LT), however his no. 1 priority need was not the no.1 player on the draft board. So the Cowboys personnel department (Jeff Ireland, others) had to conveince him to stick to the board and draft Ware then hope that Spears fell to their 20 pick in the 1st round or they could trade up to snatch him. Parcells did not want to take the risk but he also knew about the Cowboys not sticking with the BAPON draft board leading the all the sorry Larry Lacewell drafts that he required Jerry Jones to fire for Parcells to Coach the Cowboys. So, the Cowboys stuck with the BAPON and drafted future Hall of Fame and Ring of Honor OLB Demarucs Ware. The remainder of the draft BAPON was used and the Cowboys went for 4-3 to 3-4 in one draft, creating a playoff/super bowl caliber defense that continued through the lousy coaching and coaching carousel of Son of Bum, and that Red Head clapping idiot who finally wasted what was drafted in 2005.

BAPON was the method used by Gil Brandt/Wooten during the Landry years (20 consecutive winning seasons) before Landry got more involved in personnel decisions in the mid/late 80's. BAPON was used masterfully by Jimmy Johnson/Ackles/Wooten to build the Cowboys Dynasty of the 90's. BAPON was totally neglected during the Jerry Jones/Lacewell years. BAPON was brought back during the Parcells years (see the trade down in 2004 that lead to the 2 1st round picks in 2005). Neglected again during the Jerry Jones/Tom Ciskowski years. After the 2013 fiasco (trade down not using BAPON) BAPON was brought back by Will McClay. However Jerry still can mess it up when he listens to coaches vs. scouts see the Hill DT pick, and the waste of former 1st round pick Taco Charlton, who had as many sacks as Demarcus Lawrence in less games last year for the Dolphins as Lawrence cost per sack total was $4M less than Taco.

When you draft the Best Available Player of Need according to your draft board, you will pass on Johnny Football, and draft a OG from Notre Dame named Zach Martin. Keep yourself and your coaches out of the selection process, and never draft the best available player without looking at prioritized needs or you will end up with 4 WR as your number one pick 4 out of 5 years.

Drafting for need is the #1 reason that teams fail in the draft.

The best strategy is to focus on drafting for the next season, not the upcoming season.
- Assume that any specific pick is unlikely to be a quality starter as a rookie.
- On the flip side, a team's complete draft class should be expected to have a few rookie contributors. Just don't assume to know which specific players.

- If the Cowboys draft a Zack Martin type instant All Pro, how many positions on the current roster would that pick be "wasted" ?

OT: Tyron has had multiple injury issues the past 4 years. If he misses 8 games, the season is done. The top backup is 2019 udfa Brandon Knight and he has not played/practiced at LT in the NFL.
OC: If a Travis Frederick level talent was available at #17, which player in this draft would be better at that pick?
OG: Connor Williams is returning from a major injury and McGoven has never played a snap in the NFL, not even in a preseason game.
LB: LVE's health status is unknown. New DC Nolan has used multiple types of defensive alignments in the past. If a healthy and faster version of Sean Lee is available, nobody will regret the pick.
DT: Two aging free agents should not change anything with regards to the draft.
WR: There is near zero experience at the 3rd WR position. Not only at slot WR, but the backups at outside WR are fewer than the options at slot WR.
TE: If there is a Witten clone in the draft, then that's a good pick in any round.
Safety: Definitely a need position.
CB: Another obvious need position, especially for 2021 when 2 of the top 3 veterans will be free agents.
RB: It would be extreme to draft one in the 1st but if they had draft Dalvin Cook in the 2nd a couple of years ago, they could have traded Zeke and used the 15M per on another position. They would have had a replacement when Zeke was suspended.
QB: Again, it would be extreme to draft one in the 1st, but if the team was sold on a QB in the 2nd round, that position has such extreme value, that it's a huge payoff if that player turns into a quality starting caliber player.

 

[xwalker]

Was Dak the best player available in the 4th?

There are many ways to define "best player".

There are super high upside players that fall to the late rounds because they have huge risk factors.

There are super safe prospects with limited upside.

There are ready-now players vs higher upside but need more time to develop type players.

The Cowboys have had the most success when the draft players that they are completely comfortable drafting.
Dak, Martin, Frederick.

When they express reservations after the draft in a way that it's obvious they "talked themselves into a pick" then it often goes bad. That was obvious when the media asked Stephen Jones and Will McClay about taking Taco over TJ Watt.

The Cowboys spent more time pre-draft with Dak than any player drafted in the Jerry era.

 

[DFWJC]

Some people still don't understand what BPA is.

It's a tier based thing, NOT an absolute thing.

Example of a random teams board
Tier 1 (all players grouped together with very close grades)
Player 1--DE
Player 2--OT
Player 3--OT
Player 4--QB
Player 5--WR

GAP

Tier 2
Player 6--DT
Player 7--WR
Player 8--OG
Player 9--DE
Player 10--QB
Player 11--CB
Player 12--LB

Team badly needs CB and OG

Example 1
Players 1-5 are all gone but player 6 and 7 are available, yet team takes Player 8 or player 11
NOT Violating BPA

Example 2
Player 1, 2,4, all gone, but 3 and 5 available. Team takes player 8 or 11
IS violating BPA and reaching or need

In 2nd case, team should take a tier one player OR attempt to trade dwon.


Team needs OL

To think teams are crazy enough to think they have perfect and absolute grades on very single player...say 300 players...and they know for sure number 205 is better than 206....is nuts.
They put these guys into groupings--which allows then to include need into the equation but not so much that they're dumb about it.

 

[blueblood70]

Drafting for need is the #1 reason that teams fail in the draft.

The best strategy is to focus on drafting for the next season, not the upcoming season.
- Assume that any specific pick is unlikely to be a quality starter as a rookie.
- On the flip side, a team's complete draft class should be expected to have a few rookie contributors. Just don't assume to know which specific players.

- If the Cowboys draft a Zack Martin type instant All Pro, how many positions on the current roster would that pick be "wasted" ?

OT: Tyron has had multiple injury issues the past 4 years. If he misses 8 games, the season is done. The top backup is 2019 udfa Brandon Knight and he has not played/practiced at LT in the NFL.
OC: If a Travis Frederick level talent was available at #17, which player in this draft would be better at that pick?
OG: Connor Williams is returning from a major injury and McGoven has never played a snap in the NFL, not even in a preseason game.
LB: LVE's health status is unknown. New DC Nolan has used multiple types of defensive alignments in the past. If a healthy and faster version of Sean Lee is available, nobody will regret the pick.
DT: Two aging free agents should not change anything with regards to the draft.
WR: There is near zero experience at the 3rd WR position. Not only at slot WR, but the backups at outside WR are fewer than the options at slot WR.
TE: If there is a Witten clone in the draft, then that's a good pick in any round.
Safety: Definitely a need position.
CB: Another obvious need position, especially for 2021 when 2 of the top 3 veterans will be free agents.
RB: It would be extreme to draft one in the 1st but if they had draft Dalvin Cook in the 2nd a couple of years ago, they could have traded Zeke and used the 15M per on another position. They would have had a replacement when Zeke was suspended.
QB: Again, it would be extreme to draft one in the 1st, but if the team was sold on a QB in the 2nd round, that position has such extreme value, that it's a huge payoff if that player turns into a quality starting caliber player.

I agree get your point but Cook a bad use for hypothetical, dude injury prone and cant be a fulltime back you can depend on..too much time on the rehab bed..

 

[blueblood70]

Some people still don't understand what BPA is.

It's a tier based thing, NOT an absolute thing.

Example of a random teams board
Tier 1 (all players grouped together with very close grades)
Player 1--DE
Player 2--OT
Player 3--OT
Player 4--QB
Player 5--WR

GAP

Tier 2
Player 6--DT
Player 7--WR
Player 8--OG
Player 9--DE
Player 10--QB
Player 11--CB
Player 12--LB

Team badly needs CB and OG

Example 1
Players 1-5 are all gone but player 6 and 7 are available, yet team takes Player 8 or player 11
NOT Violating BPA

Example 2
Player 1, 2,4, all gone, but 3 and 5 available. Team takes player 8 or 11
IS violating BPA and reaching or need

In 2nd case, team should take a tier one player OR attempt to trade dwon.


Team needs OL

To think teams are crazy enough to think they have perfect and absolute grades on very single player...say 300 players...and they know for sure number 205 is better than 206....is nuts.
They put these guys into groupings--which allows then to include need into the equation but not so much that they're dumb about it.

most get it lol

 

[DFWJC]

most get it lol

There's still so many that see a list of players on a board and see that a team didn't take the very highest payer on the board, so they thing they somehow violated BPA.....when really, maybe 5-6 of those players had basically the same grade.

 

[Idgit]

You position for need in FA, or by trading up or down. Once you’re slotted, with very few exceptions you’re better off taking the best player.

 

[eromeopolk]

This ain't rocket science. Cowboys need a CB, LDE/OLB, SS, DT, C/OG, Slot WR/KR, MLB, QB, TE....

Cowboys select Chassion LDE/OLB or trade down. I would draft K9 Kenneth Murray.

 

[eromeopolk]

I have no problem because Slot WR/KR was a prioritize need and CeeDee Lamb was BAPON.

 

[plasticman]

BPA was the Cowboys normal operating procedure during the Landry/Shramm/Brandt era, a time in which they recorded 20 consecutive winning seasons, 10 conference championship games and 5 Super Bowl appearences.

 

[eromeopolk]

BPA was the Cowboys normal operating procedure during the Landry/Shramm/Brandt era, a time in which they recorded 20 consecutive winning seasons, 10 conference championship games and 5 Super Bowl appearences.

I agree...best available player of need. The Cowboys first pick was Mr. Cowboy Bob Lilly. They had Tubbs the LB, traded for Eddie Lebaron, signed Don Meredith the year prior, and needed the DT keep the OL off of Tubbs and rush the passer both necessary to run the Flex.

 

[kevm3]

If an elite talent without any glaring holes fall to you at 17 you take him.

 

[CF74]

But those 49ers in the 80’s....

 

[Jake]

Was Dak the best player available in the 4th?

He's accomplished far more than anyone else taken in that 4th round. Most of them aren't even in the NFL.

His career passer rating is 7th best in NFL history.