ESPN: Debunking the Dak contract debate

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glimmerman

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The only thing that matters is what JJ and SJ thinks. And they like what they see enough to pay him around 35. He will be the highest paid QB until mahomes gets his deal. If Ak waits till mahomes gets his deal done it’s not going to mean he gets more money. I think he and his agent knows. But if mahomes gets his deal at 40+ and then Dak signs the 35-36 then it makes him look like he is taking a home town discount. Lol. Maybe that’s what he is going to do. Lol.
 

kskboys

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As I have said multiple times, these articles should be sent to Stephen and Jerry, because they are the only ones that count.

This thread will devolve into a back and forth about Prescott for the umpteenth time today(and it's morning). Forget all that and ask yourself with all these articles that support Prescott getting signed, why hasn't he? WHY?

It's going on two years of negotiations, why? What are we missing?
Hostage holding agent. This guy is starting to make Rosenhaus look like a giver.
 

glimmerman

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I agree Dak should get a fair contract like other quarterbacks on his level, but why should he get paid the same as bad contracts given out to players by other teams??
It’s the going rate. A franchise QB gets a certain amount or going rate. Each QB when it’s there turn gets a little more than the last. Then you have QB like mahomes that will shatter the ceiling and make it jump. That don’t mean Dak will get more than mahomes.
 

CalPolyTechnique

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It’s a good article and makes a strong and compelling overall argument in favor of Dak that I can buy. That said, this excerpt is from the same article. I promise you this is where the Dak Boyz quickly pivot from parading Dak’s bogus “QB W/L record“ to trotting out why it’s a team game and blame-gaming other aspects to explain away Dak’s struggles in this regard.

Criticism No. 7: Prescott struggles against great teams.

“Here's a place where Prescott has undeniably struggled. As Parolin noted in his piece, Prescott and the Cowboys are just 5-13 against teams that finished the year with 10 or more wins, and the quarterback has been part of the problem. His QBR in those games is just 55.3, down from 72.9 in games where he isn't going up against a 10-win team.

Goff and Wentz have both been better here, although it has been more about their record than level of play. Wentz is 9-11 in those games, and his QBR is marginally better at 58.3. Goff is 8-12 in the same contests, but his QBR in those games has been 51.8, below that of both Wentz and Prescott.

Let's look at this another way and consider great defenses. I split out each of the three quarterbacks and measured their performances versus top-10 defenses by DVOA (in each given year) against the remaining 22 teams to see which quarterback both struggled the most against great defenses and lost the most versus his usual performance against the defenses ranked 11 through 32.

Prescott looks the worst of the bunch here. Wentz was clearly the best of the three against great defenses, posting the best passer rating (90.0) and adjusted yards per attempt (7.0). Prescott and Goff were virtually identical in terms of passer rating (82.3 for Prescott, 81.4 for Goff) and AY/A (6.3 for Dak, 6.4 for Goff).

Measured versus their numbers against the lesser defenses, Prescott also dropped off more noticeably than the other two. Wentz was virtually the same against all defenses; his passer rating against the great defense was 94.2% of what it was against the other defenses. Goff was just behind him at 89.1%, while Prescott was well off the pack at 79.7%. By AY/A, the gap was even larger, with him down at 75.5%. Of the various criticisms of him, this seems like the most meaningful and accurate complaint.”
 

DFWJC

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Dallas wants 6 years, Prescott wants 4. Settle on 5 and get it done.
5 years would make Dak's deal end after the 2024 season, the same as the other top QBs in his class (Wentz, Goff)
So yes, 5 years makes sense.
But I'm pretty sure Dallas is already offering that.
 

sean10mm

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It is kind of funny how Dallas keeps getting these QBs who are good by every conventional way there is to measure a quarterback's passing ability, yet somehow they were both ~secretly bad~ in some way that nobody can explain but everybody can convince is true.

What an incredible run of bad luck to keep getting guys who produce passing offense efficiently yet somehow are also giving off some kind of vile vapors, or humors, or liminiferous aethers, that make them bad through the power of undetectable magic.

It's can't just be that they were good players on badly managed teams, and the hallmark of badly manged teams is underachieving relative to your talent level.
 

Hennessy_King

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"Eye test"needs used along with stats. If you are using just one or the other...you are doing it wrong. Why even "watch" football...just check the box scores.

You WATCH it because stats don't tell the whole story.
Box score stats don't tell the whole story but analytics do. They both say the offense carried this team with zero help from defense and special teams all year long.
 

Sandyf

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Great article and as a fan, I understand the market. The market isn't, as some suggest, going to reset even if you believe it should. Mahomes is easily going to get over $40 mil average and Watson/Jackson will not be for behind. Dak will become the highest paid QB for a day and then Rodgers and others will get extensions that will top it before Mahomes even signs. Once the dust has settled, Dak will be like the 7th highest paid QB.

The market for all players is just going to go up, it isn't going to reset in any way. It hasn't in 20 years and not starting this year.
 

Dhragon

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The market needs a reset.
This is the time to do it.

The true market pays for production not next man up.

Should the next third string QB coming up for a new contract be the highest paid?

Remember when draft picks got outrageous contracts right off the bat because of out of control spiraling "next man up" type of increases year after year? Sam Bradford if I remember correctly was one of the top paid QBs coming out before he even threw a pass in the NFL. The NFL finally came to its senses and reformed it.

That same reform will have to be done with the established QB situation soon. There will be no choice. Since some dumb team will always cave and keep paying escalating salaries, only by mandate can the NFL control this. Unfortunately it will have to wait until the next NFL/Players Assoc. deal comes due. So we are a team stuck with the conundrum of to overpay like some teams will do to keep talent or not. I personally am torn on this. I think Dak is worth investing in but there are limits.

The whole QB salary situation today is unfair to all the non-QB positions in the NFL. The prevalence of the attitude to not interfere in another man's money will prevent virtually all to not complain about it, but deep down most others have to be to some degree ticked off the QBs, even the non-elite ones, are eating into how much they can earn.

Whichever way this goes, I will try and be okay with the Cowboy's decision because I truly am undecided which decision is for the best. I am leaning toward not caving to Dak even if it means starting over at QB in the hopes the NFL will have straightened out this mess by the time it comes up again. But then again, maybe this situation stretches out further and we are either stuck with a below average QB or another good QB who wants to bust the market yet again.
 

G2

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The last paragraph perfectly describes why he shouldn't get the contract he's wanting.
Did you notice he wasn't lumped in with the top 5?
Even more telling he wasn't mentioned in the top 3.
Dak is wanting a contract that pays him over his pay grade.
Thats the problem.
All the so called (Dak haters) just want him to be payed accordingly.
Other than that the Dak jock sniffers don't have a legitimate argument.
Regardless of your kindergarten name calling, the QB market works differently then you think.
 

Dhragon

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Agreed it needs a reset. But that is a side point.

Whether you like it or not, Dak is getting offered the market. Nothing unusual here. To say otherwise is naïve.
The market is broken though or close to it. Tough situation for the Cowboys.
 

kskboys

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Remember when draft picks got outrageous contracts right off the bat because of out of control spiraling "next man up" type of increases year after year? Sam Bradford if I remember correctly was one of the top paid QBs coming out before he even threw a pass in the NFL. The NFL finally came to its senses and reformed it.

That same reform will have to be done with the established QB situation soon. There will be no choice. Since some dumb team will always cave and keep paying escalating salaries, only by mandate can the NFL control this. Unfortunately it will have to wait until the next NFL/Players Assoc. deal comes due. So we are a team stuck with the conundrum of to overpay like some teams will do to keep talent or not. I personally am torn on this. I think Dak is worth investing in but there are limits.

The whole QB salary situation today is unfair to all the non-QB positions in the NFL. The prevalence of the attitude to not interfere in another man's money will prevent virtually all to not complain about it, but deep down most others have to be to some degree ticked off the QBs, even the non-elite ones, are eating into how much they can earn.

Whichever way this goes, I will try and be okay with the Cowboy's decision because I truly am undecided which decision is for the best. I am leaning toward not caving to Dak even if it means starting over at QB in the hopes the NFL will have straightened out this mess by the time it comes up again. But then again, maybe this situation stretches out further and we are either stuck with a below average QB or another good QB who wants to bust the market yet again.
Very well said. Sad part is, I like Dak, and since he has not completely come around yet, I'm having trouble understanding this whole contract ordeal.
 

CowboyRoy

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The market is broken though or close to it. Tough situation for the Cowboys.

Its starting to get really out of control. For other positions also.

Cowboys choice isn't a tough one. Especially considering they already prepared for his salary. We are fine with the cap.
 

charron

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Long, in-depth, fantastic read. Bill Barnwell’s articles are always extremely well-researched.

It’s full of facts and stats... which means the anti-Dak crew either won’t be smart enough to grasp it or they won’t have the integrity to give it an honest read.

For everyone else, enjoy!

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...ract-debate-facts-fiction-why-cowboys-pay-him

While he's not Mahomes, the preponderance of evidence suggests he's a top-10 quarterback and somewhere in the six-to-eight range. The idea that the Cowboys can just replace him with a cheaper option and get similar production is not supported by evidence or history.


Must you insult people just because they view things different? This kind of crap in a post is part of the problem and is 100% not needed.
 

CowboyRoy

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Remember when draft picks got outrageous contracts right off the bat because of out of control spiraling "next man up" type of increases year after year? Sam Bradford if I remember correctly was one of the top paid QBs coming out before he even threw a pass in the NFL. The NFL finally came to its senses and reformed it.

That same reform will have to be done with the established QB situation soon. There will be no choice. Since some dumb team will always cave and keep paying escalating salaries, only by mandate can the NFL control this. Unfortunately it will have to wait until the next NFL/Players Assoc. deal comes due. So we are a team stuck with the conundrum of to overpay like some teams will do to keep talent or not. I personally am torn on this. I think Dak is worth investing in but there are limits.

The whole QB salary situation today is unfair to all the non-QB positions in the NFL. The prevalence of the attitude to not interfere in another man's money will prevent virtually all to not complain about it, but deep down most others have to be to some degree ticked off the QBs, even the non-elite ones, are eating into how much they can earn.

Whichever way this goes, I will try and be okay with the Cowboy's decision because I truly am undecided which decision is for the best. I am leaning toward not caving to Dak even if it means starting over at QB in the hopes the NFL will have straightened out this mess by the time it comes up again. But then again, maybe this situation stretches out further and we are either stuck with a below average QB or another good QB who wants to bust the market yet again.



Dak is asking for market. Nothing to cave to.
 

DFWJC

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Great article and as a fan, I understand the market. The market isn't, as some suggest, going to reset even if you believe it should. Mahomes is easily going to get over $40 mil average and Watson/Jackson will not be for behind. Dak will become the highest paid QB for a day and then Rodgers and others will get extensions that will top it before Mahomes even signs. Once the dust has settled, Dak will be like the 7th highest paid QB.

The market for all players is just going to go up, it isn't going to reset in any way. It hasn't in 20 years and not starting this year.
You think Aaron Rodgers will get another contract extension before Mahomes signs?
:huh:
 

starfan1

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Must you insult people just because they view things different? This kind of crap in a post is part of the problem and is 100% not needed.

out of curiosity wheres the insult? I see an anti-dak crew comment but how is that an insult because thats factual is it not? You dont want the cowboys to pay the QB his market value and thus you dont want him here correct? So essentially you would be anti Dak because he isnt going to sign for a discounted rate.

He didn't call out folks and say haters or any bad name i saw. What is your preference to be addressed because thread after thread the same names can be seen on both sides and they are definitely anti-Dak. Anti-Dak getting paid ant-Dak in terms of his value. Anti-Dak on where he ranks statistically.
 

JoeKing

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We're finally in June. Dak's new contract will finally be signed "next month". I can't wait so we can stop arguing about it. :rolleyes:
 

jterrell

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I think that the Cowboys will end up giving in and handing Prescott an extension by July 15, in part because they don't have to look far to see the alternative.
 

CouchCoach

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Well this uses actual data, so I'm sure it will go over real well. Not much in there that hasn't been posted here 100 times, but I think this was the most interesting part:

In the fourth quarter and overtime, when the game has been within eight points, Prescott has been excellent; he has the league's ninth-best passer rating (104.8) and third-best QBR (79.2) when the game is late and within one score. Neither Goff or Wentz can compare. Goff ranks 26th in passer rating (80.9) and 29th in QBR (42.7) in those same moments, while Wentz is 19th in passer rating (87.0) and 19th in QBR (59.6). Prescott also has the best winning percentage in games decided by eight points or fewer at 19-13, while Goff is at a similar 13-9 and Wentz has gone 13-17.​
Why is it the comparison is Goff and Wentz? I don't think they're worth what they're getting either. Is that going to be the future for the next 4 years, well, at least he's not Goff or Wentz. Just because they were in his draft class really doesn't matter.
 
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