ESPN: Debunking the Dak contract debate

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DFWJC

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Remember when draft picks got outrageous contracts right off the bat because of out of control spiraling "next man up" type of increases year after year? Sam Bradford if I remember correctly was one of the top paid QBs coming out before he even threw a pass in the NFL. The NFL finally came to its senses and reformed it.

That same reform will have to be done with the established QB situation soon. There will be no choice. Since some dumb team will always cave and keep paying escalating salaries, only by mandate can the NFL control this. Unfortunately it will have to wait until the next NFL/Players Assoc. deal comes due. So we are a team stuck with the conundrum of to overpay like some teams will do to keep talent or not. I personally am torn on this. I think Dak is worth investing in but there are limits.

The whole QB salary situation today is unfair to all the non-QB positions in the NFL. The prevalence of the attitude to not interfere in another man's money will prevent virtually all to not complain about it, but deep down most others have to be to some degree ticked off the QBs, even the non-elite ones, are eating into how much they can earn.

Whichever way this goes, I will try and be okay with the Cowboy's decision because I truly am undecided which decision is for the best. I am leaning toward not caving to Dak even if it means starting over at QB in the hopes the NFL will have straightened out this mess by the time it comes up again. But then again, maybe this situation stretches out further and we are either stuck with a below average QB or another good QB who wants to bust the market yet again.
Eventually, they'll install a rule that says no player can make more than certain percentage of the salary cap. It takes no money away from the players in aggregate, but adds sanity to single salaries on a team roster that has 40-50 other players.
If cap continues to rise, then all boats rise, including the top dogs'.
 

DFWJC

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Why is it the comparison is Goff and Wentz? I don't think they're worth what they're getting either. Is that going to be the future for the next 4 years, well, at least he's not Goff or Wentz. Just because they were in his draft class really doesn't matter.
Debatable if he's better than Wentz.
If you did a poll league-wide it would be interesting.
But most think he's passed up the overpaid Goff.
 

CouchCoach

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Eventually, they'll install a rule that says no player can make more than certain percentage of the salary cap. It takes no money away from the players in aggregate, but adds sanity to single salaries on a team roster that has 40-50 other players.
If cap continues to rise, then all boats rise, including the top dogs'.
Could happen, the QB's are outnumbered and they did address the rookie deals when they were totally out of hand.
 

glimmerman

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What QB does not have a hard time against great teams. Here is what I don’t understand, people expect 1 player to beat a whole team.

So he has to throw the passes make the blocks catch the ball and tackle the opposing teams QB and kick the FG. It’s a team game.

Most QB stats are lower against great teams. Very few QB can take a team and carry them on there backs. What we have is a good QB that’s improving every year. Who knows where his ceiling is. I don’t think he has reached it yet. He is a gamer. May not practice well but one thing people used to say about him was he plays well when the spot light is on him. Now all the sudden he don’t play well against great teams. Then you see stats where he ranks right up there with other top 10 QB’s against top 10 defenses.

People cherry picks stats to fit there narrative.

JJ and SJ say he is our guy so pay him and let’s move on. Then we can talk about how good or bad he is playing and if he is over paid. This is just like Romo when he was here and about to get a huge contract. Ya know Marino never got a ring but has all these nice stats. He got paid well back then. Same as a list of other QB. It’s a team game.
 

SackMaster

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It’s a good article and makes a strong and compelling overall argument in favor of Dak that I can buy. That said, this excerpt is from the same article. I promise you this is where the Dak Boyz quickly pivot from parading Dak’s bogus “QB W/L record“ to trotting out why it’s a team game and blame-gaming other aspects to explain away Dak’s struggles in this regard.

Criticism No. 7: Prescott struggles against great teams.

“Here's a place where Prescott has undeniably struggled. As Parolin noted in his piece, Prescott and the Cowboys are just 5-13 against teams that finished the year with 10 or more wins, and the quarterback has been part of the problem. His QBR in those games is just 55.3, down from 72.9 in games where he isn't going up against a 10-win team.

Goff and Wentz have both been better here, although it has been more about their record than level of play. Wentz is 9-11 in those games, and his QBR is marginally better at 58.3. Goff is 8-12 in the same contests, but his QBR in those games has been 51.8, below that of both Wentz and Prescott.

Let's look at this another way and consider great defenses. I split out each of the three quarterbacks and measured their performances versus top-10 defenses by DVOA (in each given year) against the remaining 22 teams to see which quarterback both struggled the most against great defenses and lost the most versus his usual performance against the defenses ranked 11 through 32.

Prescott looks the worst of the bunch here. Wentz was clearly the best of the three against great defenses, posting the best passer rating (90.0) and adjusted yards per attempt (7.0). Prescott and Goff were virtually identical in terms of passer rating (82.3 for Prescott, 81.4 for Goff) and AY/A (6.3 for Dak, 6.4 for Goff).

Measured versus their numbers against the lesser defenses, Prescott also dropped off more noticeably than the other two. Wentz was virtually the same against all defenses; his passer rating against the great defense was 94.2% of what it was against the other defenses. Goff was just behind him at 89.1%, while Prescott was well off the pack at 79.7%. By AY/A, the gap was even larger, with him down at 75.5%. Of the various criticisms of him, this seems like the most meaningful and accurate complaint.”
While I have absolutely no complaints about this criticism, I think this was an issue with the Cowboys even before Dak was playing college football.

I am waiting in anticipation to see if moving on from a Head Coach that was lost more often than not in "big games" does not show significant difference in the Top Team / Top Defense games.

Again, it was not all on the coach, but we have had two really good QBs that have had issues with better teams / defenses. Then add that the previous Coach could RARELY win without one of those two QBs in the lineup. I would not expect winning records with backup QBs, but he was something like 3-18 (didn't double check) without Romo or Dak starting, and that is really, really bad.
 

Nav22

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Debatable if he's better than Wentz.
If you did a poll league-wide it would be interesting.
But most think he's passed up the overpaid Goff.
If they’re both on the field, it’s somewhat debatable but the numbers still favor Dak.

But the reality is that Wentz has ended his last 3 seasons with an injury, and the last 2 of those injuries weren’t SO severe that he had no choice but to sit out.

Wentz is soft. He’s also been trashed anonymously by teammates multiple times.

So it appears that Dak destroys him in durability and leadership as well.
 

CouchCoach

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Debatable if he's better than Wentz.
If you did a poll league-wide it would be interesting.
But most think he's passed up the overpaid Goff.
Until Wentz can prove he can stay on the field, I've got Prescott ahead of him but the gist of this seems to be being satisfied with what they've got. And with their track record getting QB's, hard to argue that.

The one thing I will argue with the Dakaters is that he's not the reason the team hasn't done better. He's good enough to get the job done. One thing Goff and Wentz have had, better D's to support the QB. So did Mahomes and Rodgers and Brady has had that most of his career.

With what the Cowboys have committed to so few players, they're going to have to hit some homers with more affordable talent. No team in the cap era has ever had the QB-RB-WR at the top in their salaries before.
 

DFWJC

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If they’re both on the field, it’s somewhat debatable but the numbers still favor Dak.

But the reality is that Wentz has ended his last 3 seasons with an injury, and the last 2 of those injuries weren’t SO severe that he had no choice but to sit out.

Wentz is soft. He’s also been trashed anonymously by teammates multiple times.

So it appears that Dak destroys him in durability and leadership as well.
Dak definitely wins the durability contest so far.
No doubt
 

PAPPYDOG

There are no Dak haters just Cowboy lovers!!!
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We're finally in June. Dak's new contract will finally be signed "next month". I can't wait so we can stop arguing about it. :rolleyes:

Better be sure.....as you've been wrong 2 years running....:muttley:

P.S.Dak-Zoids as of July 16th....

63282_10150115073386181_3256739_n.jpg
 

817Gill

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It’s a good article and makes a strong and compelling overall argument in favor of Dak that I can buy. That said, this excerpt is from the same article. I promise you this is where the Dak Boyz quickly pivot from parading Dak’s bogus “QB W/L record“ to trotting out why it’s a team game and blame-gaming other aspects to explain away Dak’s struggles in this regard.

Criticism No. 7: Prescott struggles against great teams.

“Here's a place where Prescott has undeniably struggled. As Parolin noted in his piece, Prescott and the Cowboys are just 5-13 against teams that finished the year with 10 or more wins, and the quarterback has been part of the problem. His QBR in those games is just 55.3, down from 72.9 in games where he isn't going up against a 10-win team.

Goff and Wentz have both been better here, although it has been more about their record than level of play. Wentz is 9-11 in those games, and his QBR is marginally better at 58.3. Goff is 8-12 in the same contests, but his QBR in those games has been 51.8, below that of both Wentz and Prescott.

Let's look at this another way and consider great defenses. I split out each of the three quarterbacks and measured their performances versus top-10 defenses by DVOA (in each given year) against the remaining 22 teams to see which quarterback both struggled the most against great defenses and lost the most versus his usual performance against the defenses ranked 11 through 32.

Prescott looks the worst of the bunch here. Wentz was clearly the best of the three against great defenses, posting the best passer rating (90.0) and adjusted yards per attempt (7.0). Prescott and Goff were virtually identical in terms of passer rating (82.3 for Prescott, 81.4 for Goff) and AY/A (6.3 for Dak, 6.4 for Goff).

Measured versus their numbers against the lesser defenses, Prescott also dropped off more noticeably than the other two. Wentz was virtually the same against all defenses; his passer rating against the great defense was 94.2% of what it was against the other defenses. Goff was just behind him at 89.1%, while Prescott was well off the pack at 79.7%. By AY/A, the gap was even larger, with him down at 75.5%. Of the various criticisms of him, this seems like the most meaningful and accurate complaint.”
This is a very fair and factually backed criticism. I do think with better game planning and coaching in-game decision making that can be improved and closer to where it needs to be. He does have to make strides here though for sure.
 

DFWJC

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Until Wentz can prove he can stay on the field, I've got Prescott ahead of him but the gist of this seems to be being satisfied with what they've got. And with their track record getting QB's, hard to argue that.

The one thing I will argue with the Dakaters is that he's not the reason the team hasn't done better. He's good enough to get the job done. One thing Goff and Wentz have had, better D's to support the QB. So did Mahomes and Rodgers and Brady has had that most of his career.

With what the Cowboys have committed to so few players, they're going to have to hit some homers with more affordable talent. No team in the cap era has ever had the QB-RB-WR at the top in their salaries before.
I think Dak has the better offensive weapons over Wentz...especially last year.
But I've always stayed out of the Dak vs Wentz debates. I just don't feel strongly either way.
Dak will get paid and we'll see long term.
Hopefully he helps us get a Lombardi some day.
:flagwave:
 

charron

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out of curiosity wheres the insult? I see an anti-dak crew comment but how is that an insult because thats factual is it not? You dont want the cowboys to pay the QB his market value and thus you dont want him here correct? So essentially you would be anti Dak because he isnt going to sign for a discounted rate.

He didn't call out folks and say haters or any bad name i saw. What is your preference to be addressed because thread after thread the same names can be seen on both sides and they are definitely anti-Dak. Anti-Dak getting paid ant-Dak in terms of his value. Anti-Dak on where he ranks statistically.


"It’s full of facts and stats... which means the anti-Dak crew either won’t be smart enough to grasp it or they won’t have the integrity to give it an honest read."
 

CalPolyTechnique

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While I have absolutely no complaints about this criticism, I think this was an issue with the Cowboys even before Dak was playing college football.

I am waiting in anticipation to see if moving on from a Head Coach that was lost more often than not in "big games" does not show significant difference in the Top Team / Top Defense games.

Again, it was not all on the coach, but we have had two really good QBs that have had issues with better teams / defenses. Then add that the previous Coach could RARELY win without one of those two QBs in the lineup. I would not expect winning records with backup QBs, but he was something like 3-18 (didn't double check) without Romo or Dak starting, and that is really, really bad.

I’m not following the argument...

What does bringing up Garrett’s record as a coach playing with backup QBs have to do with Dak playing against good defenses?

Also, if Garrett is being assigned blame then logically he should be assigned credit for Dak’s supposed stellar individual “QB W/L record.”

I am no fan of Garrett, but we can’t heap praise on Dak and point to his supposed “QB W/L record“ and ignore Garrett, but then turn around and blame Garrett when Dak struggles and the team loses.

The blame and the credit being assigned is disproportionate.
 

CouchCoach

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What QB does not have a hard time against great teams. Here is what I don’t understand, people expect 1 player to beat a whole team.

So he has to throw the passes make the blocks catch the ball and tackle the opposing teams QB and kick the FG. It’s a team game.

Most QB stats are lower against great teams. Very few QB can take a team and carry them on there backs. What we have is a good QB that’s improving every year. Who knows where his ceiling is. I don’t think he has reached it yet. He is a gamer. May not practice well but one thing people used to say about him was he plays well when the spot light is on him. Now all the sudden he don’t play well against great teams. Then you see stats where he ranks right up there with other top 10 QB’s against top 10 defenses.

People cherry picks stats to fit there narrative.

JJ and SJ say he is our guy so pay him and let’s move on. Then we can talk about how good or bad he is playing and if he is over paid. This is just like Romo when he was here and about to get a huge contract. Ya know Marino never got a ring but has all these nice stats. He got paid well back then. Same as a list of other QB. It’s a team game.
There are only two QB's that are uncontrollable and discombobulate a DC, Mahomes and Jackson. They will key their D on them and can't stop them, they have to count on them having a bad game as Jackson did in the playoffs and Mahomes was off in the early going. Russell Wilson is 3rd in that area. And that kid in AZ might be the next one like that, he didn't get much coverage last season.

The Dakaters have yet to offer a suitable replacement and Dalton ain't it. Hoping for Lawrence ain't it. Sometimes a team just has to admit this is the best they can do and go with it.
 

DFWJC

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There are only two QB's that are uncontrollable and discombobulate a DC, Mahomes and Jackson. They will key their D on them and can't stop them, they have to count on them having a bad game as Jackson did in the playoffs and Mahomes was off in the early going. Russell Wilson is 3rd in that area. And that kid in AZ might be the next one like that, he didn't get much coverage last season.

The Dakaters have yet to offer a suitable replacement and Dalton ain't it. Hoping for Lawrence ain't it. Sometimes a team just has to admit this is the best they can do and go with it.
Tua
 

Verdict

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Dak wants 4 years. If there is to be a 5th year he wants 40 million for that year. At least that’s what I think I heard. I think they have settled on 35 million or just a hair more than Wilson got. Believe it’s the guaranteed money and the 5th year is the hang up. I would just forget the 5th year and throw a few million of guaranteed money at the pile and get it done...
Do the 4 year deal, don’t give up tag rights and you have control over him for 6 years, if you want it. If it’s the number of years that is the issue, and not the amount per year, pay him and move on. If he wants an untenable amount per year then make him play on the tag and start looking for a QB.

This should be a business decision on both ends, not an emotional exercise. I think Dak should not underestimate the value to him outside of football that being the QB of the Cowboys brings to the table. Winning also brings value. There aren’t 5 teams in football that are close to the Cowboys in both.
 

Future

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Why is it the comparison is Goff and Wentz? I don't think they're worth what they're getting either. Is that going to be the future for the next 4 years, well, at least he's not Goff or Wentz. Just because they were in his draft class really doesn't matter.
It doesn't matter if they are "worth what they're getting." No team or player is in the business of offering lowball contracts to correct other teams' overpayments.

They're comps b/c they got contracts at around the same time and are close to the same age. It's dumb to compare his contract to the likes of Brees, Brady and Rodgers.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

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Long, in-depth, fantastic read. Bill Barnwell’s articles are always extremely well-researched.

It’s full of facts and stats... which means the anti-Dak crew either won’t be smart enough to grasp it or they won’t have the integrity to give it an honest read.

For everyone else, enjoy!

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...ract-debate-facts-fiction-why-cowboys-pay-him

While he's not Mahomes, the preponderance of evidence suggests he's a top-10 quarterback and somewhere in the six-to-eight range. The idea that the Cowboys can just replace him with a cheaper option and get similar production is not supported by evidence or history.
couple of things that explain the stand on each side.

Projections suggest the league could double its TV rights fees from $7.5 billion to $15 billion.

In the process, the salary cap could skyrocket. The cap stands at $198.6 million and has jumped by an average of about 6% over the past seven seasons. After the league renegotiates the deals, the cap could jump dramatically. As was the case in the NBA, when players who came free at the right time ended up signing massive deals, NFL players will want to time their free agency for the moment after those rights fees hit if the cap rises by 15-20%.

The best-case scenario would be for him to strike some middle ground where he signs a deal now and gets to free agency as quickly as possible, which is what we saw from lots of free agents who signed two- and three-year deals this offseason

that explains why the cowboys want a 5 year deal and dak wants a 4 year deal. that one year could see a 20-25% jump in salaries on average, so the cowboys want to have leverage and Dak wants to hit the market sooner. that also explains why Goff and Wentz were willing to sign extensions earlier than the 4th year so that they could get to FA sooner....

interesting.

also, we are not in a position to cycle through QBs. one we have committed a lot of money to a lot of top players, the team as many say has a lot of talent, thus we will probably be drafting in the bottom half of the first round, where finding the right QB is a huge huge gamble.....unless injury bug hits like it did with Romo and couple of other injuries and we end up with 4-12 record and pick in the top 5....otherwise we have set up to make a run over the next 3-4 years, before "tanking", "dumping" and "trading" players to try and reload through the draft. so best case scenario is to sign Dak, make a run with McCarthy, in 4 years, if things didn't work out, you dump and not resign players (lose them to FA perhaps and pick up lots of mid round picks) and you end up with a couple of bad years, couple of years of high draft picks and you hope to find the right QB or cycle through QBs....
 
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