One should almost never punt when between midfield and opposing 35-yard line

Red Dragon

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I'm at work and don't have time to dig up any statistical data or analyses, but I am pretty sure that the odds heavily favor going for it on 4th down anytime one is between midfield and the opponent's 35-yard line (and there are less than, say, eight yards to go for the first down. Obviously, you would not go for it on 4th-and-20.)

At any range beyond 35 yards, a field goal is iffy, and if you punt, you're likely to just get a touchback, or the opposing offense (in today's offense-friendly NFL) is likely to just march the ball back upfield, rendering your punt largely meaningless. On the other hand, going for it means you likely get into much better field goal range, or even enhance your odds for a touchdown.
 

Doomsday101

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35 yard line you are looking at 51 yard FG depending on how the game is going I would either go for it or kick the FG. Most NFL kickers 51 is well within their range. Around the 50 again depending on how the game is playing out and distance to get the 1st would play a factor but for the most part from the 50 I think the odds of punter putting the ball inside the 10 is pretty good.
 

JD_KaPow

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jsa-5-jsa190294-g008.jpg
 

Doomsday101

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Maybe true but any coach going for it on 4th and one inside their own 5 yard line and fails to get it will not be a HC much longer. I would agree with this chart for the most part if all teams were equal, they all had the same defense. Reality is you have some very good defenses out there who will win more than their fair share of short yardage battles vs a defense who could not stop some one granny from picking up the 1st.
 

cffl2323

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Also changes the play calling, in a good way, if you know you're going for it, should you get to 4th down in those areas of the field.

Luckily Mike doesn't play scared like Garrett did.
 

kumizi

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Get your analytics outta here Poindexter.

(I agree with you but people in sports are notoriously stupid and hard headed)
 

Mr_437

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If your offense is strong aspect of your team, go for it once your over the 50 unless you "need" a FG.
 

Whirlwin

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Maybe true but any coach going for it on 4th and one inside their own 5 yard line and fails to get it will not be a HC much longer. I would agree with this chart for the most part if all teams were equal, they all had the same defense. Reality is you have some very good defenses out there who will win more than their fair share of short yardage battles vs a defense who could not stop some one granny from picking up the 1st.
Yes
 

Whirlwin

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You punt the football in hopes to get the ball killed inside the 20. Odds are against the other team driving 80 yards. . You don’t get the first down you’re basically giving up three points.And most games in the NFL Are won by 3 points or less
 

charron

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When you fail to run in short yardage situations such as 3rd and 1 and you lose confidence in your run game it really makes it hard to go for it all the time. Looks like we converted 43% of the time last year down from 60% in 2018. Maybe that has something to do with going for it less. cause if you make these conversions you typically have confidence to continue trying them.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/fourth-down-conversions-per-game
 

Whirlwin

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Yes this is real life. People way smarter than you that are math professors at Ivy League schools don’t understand why NFL teams punt so much on 4th down.
I guess they just don’t understand the game. It’s not their season on the line
 

Tangle_Foot

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I think this is where your coaching staff comes in.
Do they have a grip on the flow of the game.
What's the score.
Is there a call they like.
Is your defense stout.
Is your punter Adept at the coffin corner kick.
What is the range and accuracy of your fg. kicker.
Weather conditions/ time left on the clock.
Is it the first half or second half.
A good coach will know what buttons to push and when.
 
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Whirlwin

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Yes this is real life. People way smarter than you that are math professors at Ivy League schools don’t understand why NFL teams punt so much on 4th down.
People way smarter than me. That’s almost as dumb as your analysis. Because blindly you have no idea who I am. Or what I’m capable of
 

Doomsday101

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Yes this is real life. People way smarter than you that are math professors at Ivy League schools don’t understand why NFL teams punt so much on 4th down.

They are taking avgs but then coaches know you have great defenses, avg defense and poor defense. 4th and 1 vs Dolphins may not be that big of a deal but 4th and 1 vs SF that becomes a different situation. I have no issue with going for it on 4th down depending on how the game is going and the situation you are in. Claiming you should always go for it no matter the score or the opponent I don't agree with, there are defenses in this league who do very well, better than avg in stuffing 3nd/4th and short.
 

Whirlwin

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I think this is where your coaching staff comes in.
Do they have a grip on the flow of the game.
Is there a call they like.
Is your defense stout.
Is your punter Adept at the coffin corner kick.
What is the range and accuracy of your fg. kicker.
Weather conditions/ time left on the clock.
Is it the first half or second half.
A good coach will know what buttons to push and when.
There’s way too many scenarios just to say I’m going for it on fourth down every single time . Totally agree
 
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