One should almost never punt when between midfield and opposing 35-yard line

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When you post something like, punch myself in the face. I was supposed to take things that you say with integrity. Please LOL you don’t want to hear someone’s opinion. You just want to hear Your opinion come out of their mouth. I understand now

I'm starting to think you're overmedicated.
 
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leeblair

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I'm at work and don't have time to dig up any statistical data or analyses, but I am pretty sure that the odds heavily favor going for it on 4th down anytime one is between midfield and the opponent's 35-yard line (and there are less than, say, eight yards to go for the first down. Obviously, you would not go for it on 4th-and-20.)

At any range beyond 35 yards, a field goal is iffy, and if you punt, you're likely to just get a touchback, or the opposing offense (in today's offense-friendly NFL) is likely to just march the ball back upfield, rendering your punt largely meaningless. On the other hand, going for it means you likely get into much better field goal range, or even enhance your odds for a touchdown.
Going for it on fourth down is not a strategic decision, but a decision based upon intangibles.
Is the opposing defense wearing down? Can you make it?
The emotional swing that can result from either making it or not can decide a game.
If you make it, you get four more downs. But if you're struggling already, you may find yourself right back in fourth down.
The consequences of the decision must be understood before making the decision itself.
In a game of equal or near equal talent, it is the intangibles that often make the difference.
Coaches that ignore this are missing half of their job.
 

BAT

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Isn't there a high school coach that never punts? I know I read it some where.

Coach Kelly is HS coach in Arkansas. Considered the Nick Saban/Bill Belichick of HS football.

Has that Jimmy Johnson, brass balls, mentality.

 

BAT

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Going for it on fourth down is not a strategic decision, but a decision based upon intangibles.
Is the opposing defense wearing down? Can you make it?
The emotional swing that can result from either making it or not can decide a game.
If you make it, you get four more downs. But if you're struggling already, you may find yourself right back in fourth down.
The consequences of the decision must be understood before making the decision itself.
In a game of equal or near equal talent, it is the intangibles that often make the difference.
Coaches that ignore this are missing half of their job.

Coaches that practice going for it on 4th, 2 point conversions, onside kicks, etc. Are better at it than the coaches who do not emphsaize/practice these things as often.
 

leeblair

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Coaches that practice going for it on 4th, 2 point conversions, onside kicks, etc. Are better at it than the coaches who do not emphsaize/practice these things as often.
Agreed.
 
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Dallasfann

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I agree. Go for it...However, as sad as for me to say this...it doesn't matter. There will be no 2020 season. Heart broken....the real question is what will we all do to pass time through the winter.
 

Bigdog

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Coach Kelly is HS coach in Arkansas. Considered the Nick Saban/Bill Belichick of HS football.

Has that Jimmy Johnson, brass balls, mentality.


Thanks for letting me know.
 
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Big_D

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Like when Garrett punted on 4th and 1 from the other teams 40 with 5 minutes left in OT? lol Great call..
 
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Red Dragon

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Like when Garrett punted on 4th and 1 from the other teams 40 with 5 minutes left in OT? lol Great call..

Yes, this is a prime example of it. Although I'm hearing McCarthy may be just as bad.
 

JD_KaPow

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Maybe true but any coach going for it on 4th and one inside their own 5 yard line and fails to get it will not be a HC much longer. I would agree with this chart for the most part if all teams were equal, they all had the same defense. Reality is you have some very good defenses out there who will win more than their fair share of short yardage battles vs a defense who could not stop some one granny from picking up the 1st.
Sure, these are based on averages and every team should be basing it on more specific info. And yet every team is far far more conservative than this, all the time. And the reason is exactly what you say: coaches who do it right will get fired, because it won’t always work and the press and fans will eat them alive. Even though they’d win more games if they went for it more often.
 

JD_KaPow

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Going for it on fourth down is not a strategic decision, but a decision based upon intangibles.
Is the opposing defense wearing down? Can you make it?
The emotional swing that can result from either making it or not can decide a game.
If you make it, you get four more downs. But if you're struggling already, you may find yourself right back in fourth down.
The consequences of the decision must be understood before making the decision itself.
In a game of equal or near equal talent, it is the intangibles that often make the difference.
Coaches that ignore this are missing half of their job.
Good lord no. It’s the ultimate strategic (well, tactical) decision and lends itself perfectly to analysis. That “intangibles” garbage is how coaches justify being ultra-conservative at the cost of losing games.
 

Xeven

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Garret played it safe for 9 years and all he got was a lousy T-shirt.
 

Doomsday101

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Sure, these are based on averages and every team should be basing it on more specific info. And yet every team is far far more conservative than this, all the time. And the reason is exactly what you say: coaches who do it right will get fired, because it won’t always work and the press and fans will eat them alive. Even though they’d win more games if they went for it more often.

They do it because they have been in this game long enough and know that the risk is not worth it in many occasions. I think weighing the entire situation of how the game is playing out, the distance involved and even the opposing defense your facing all plays a part. If I'm up by 3 late in the game and faced with a 4th and 2 from my own 40 I'm going to punt because I know damn well if we fail I just handed the game to the opposing. Using some avg where they take poor defensive teams along with the top defenses in a class room setting is all well and fine on game day when you are facing a top defense who are very capable of winning those short yardage battles is foolish. There is a big difference between a Miami defense and that of a 49er defense.
 

Pantone282C

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I've read mccarthy is worse than garrett on going for it on 4th down. Who knows though?
Recent years were plagued by coaching decisions - it was rags or riches. Lots of stalled drives and hair brained game management.
Could be that we won't be in the same predicament so often now that there's a new direction in the game plan.
 
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