Teachable Moment: That's why you go for two early

ghst187

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If you kick it first, the game is still a one score game you just need the 2pt after the next TD.
Missing it early can deflate your players.
Even with how it worked out, there still was no benefit to going for it early.
The only possible benefit is catching the other team off guard a little and how you manage the clock on the next drive knowing you need two scores still.
 

droopdog7

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So I was all over the insane people complaining about going for two early and even started my own post after the game that didn’t make cut here.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/peo...hat-going-for-two-on-first-td-was-bad.463853/

As much as it makes sense to go for two early, you’re not going to convince the people against it for one simple reason.

They’re implicitly giving the cowboys two chances to make one 2-point conversion. In other words, they already know we missed the 2-point try the first time. So they want to turn back time, kick the extra point and get a SECOND try on the last touchdown.

How dumb?!?

Knowing what you need to do early is much better than knowing late.
 

JD_KaPow

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I don’t know much about analytics, but I disagree.

The only reason we’re able to even have a discussion about this is because of an immensely brain dead special teams play by Atlanta.

If you kick the extra point, you DO know how many more scores you need — one. And then you don’t have to rely on an onside kick, a play that has been made nearly impossible with rule changes in recent years. The Falcons blew it.
No, you don't know how many scores you need if you kick the XP. You need either a TD and a 2-pointer, or a TD (with a failed 2-pointer) and a FG. You do not know what it will take to win.

The only thing you accomplish by waiting is taking the onside kick option entirely off the table. I'm not saying it's a great option, but you don't even have that if you wait.
 

Vegas_Cowboy

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My best guess is this is the proposition- Convert a successful onside kick or score quick last drive THEN convert the 2 points THEN rely on the defense not to let the other team score with a decent amount of time left, let's say 1 min to 1 and a half minute. I can't say which is more difficult honestly before the rule changes I think the onsides option was better.

My thought is always keep it a 1 score game. Otherwise, you're going to rely on a kicker and luck to save you. That's what happened today and we got lucky.
 

Runwildboys

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The onside kick has nothing to do with the equation. Psychology has nothing to do with the equation.

Whether you get the two point conversion on the first TD or the second doesn't matter. You just need one.

Whether you successfully get the 2 point conversion on the first TD tells you if you need to score quickly to get a second possession of if you only need one drive and can take time to score and not leave time for the other team.

Kicking the extra point on the first TD gives you one path to victory. Going for two on the first TD, whether you make it or not, gives you more options.
Well put.
 

CyberB0b

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morris-conversions-1.png


Found this chart. Down 9 with 5:00 to go it is slightly higher EV to for 2 in this scenario, as noted by the orange, but it extremely close.



"When down 9 points late-ish, there’s a case that you should go for 2, because being down 8, you would have to go for 2 to draw even eventually anyway, and it’s better to know whether you converted your attempt earlier so you can make tactical adjustments. Although this logic seems sound, the data doesn’t suggest the effect is very significant (if it exists at all)."


So it looks like EVERYONE is right. This specific scenario is heavily based on psychology and not the data, since the data is very close.
 

JD_KaPow

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If you kick it first, the game is still a one score game you just need the 2pt after the next TD.
Missing it early can deflate your players.
Even with how it worked out, there still was no benefit to going for it early.
The only possible benefit is catching the other team off guard a little and how you manage the clock on the next drive knowing you need two scores still.
The "only possible benefit" you describe is exactly the benefit. You know what you need to do on the next drive.

If your players are so soft that they won't play hard after missing the 2-pointer, then I don't want those guys. The Cowboys sure didn't fold today.
 

Loso86

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Sigh. Why is this so hard to understand? By kicking the xp, you're hoping for luck (making the two-pointer) at the end of the game.

There is no benefit to waiting: you have to try a 2-pointer at some point. It's much better to know the outcome early so you know what you have to do to win.
Sounds good except if you dont get it like they didmt, it makes it STILL a 2 POSSESSION game, you make the field goal it's a ONE POSSESSION GAME, what's hard about that!?. Hettimgthe ball is tough to come bu in the NFL my friend it's not guaranteed
 

JD_KaPow

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Sounds good except if you dont get it like they didmt, it makes it STILL a 2 POSSESSION game, you make the field goal it's a ONE POSSESSION GAME, what's hard about that!?. Hettimgthe ball is tough to come bu in the NFL my friend it's not guaranteed
Good lord. It's only a one-possession game if you end up making the 2-pointer later. Why are you assuming they'll make that? I mean, we know they failed on the 2-pointer when they did try it.

An 8-point deficit isn't really a "one-possession game." It might be, but you simply don't know.
 

Lutonio

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No, you don't know how many scores you need if you kick the XP. You need either a TD and a 2-pointer, or a TD (with a failed 2-pointer) and a FG. You do not know what it will take to win.

The only thing you accomplish by waiting is taking the onside kick option entirely off the table. I'm not saying it's a great option, but you don't even have that if you wait.

It makes more sense in my head thinking it as possession instead of scores. I like the game being guaranteed one possession instead of setting up to gamble on an onside kick.
 

Loso86

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Good lord. It's only a one-possession game if you end up making the 2-pointer later. Why are you assuming they'll make that? I mean, we know they failed on the 2-pointer when they did try it.

An 8-point deficit isn't really a "one-possession game." It might be, but you simply don't know.
Have you played football before...?
 

droopdog7

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It makes more sense in my head thinking it as possession instead of scores. I like the game being guaranteed one possession instead of setting up to gamble on an onside kick.
What are you talking about? If we miss the 2-point on the second try we still need an onside kick. But we might have less time in the clock because we don’t have the same urgency.

You don’t get two tries at the 2-point conversion.
 
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