4th and 6, you gotta go for the 1st

[Floatyworm]

Sorry. We said it at the time (I say "we" because so many of us said it). 4th and 6th, 1:42 left, you HAVE to try for the first down instead of kicking a FG. Some of you will counter with, "well, that's what the defense is paid to do, make a stop late in the game, with a lead." Sure. That works against Tom Brady as much as it did against Aaron Rodgers a few years back in the playoffs.

A first down there should have put the Cowboys in better FG range while bleeding the clock. Sometimes you've gotta make that unconventional call, especially when going up against the GOAT. Had they not made the first down? Not mad...how could we be? We knew Brady would bring them back anyway.

Funny....I was just telling a buddy...I think I would have went for it as well.....I think we still had all 3 of our timeouts....and our kicker had already botched 2 kicks... But then again...taking the lead is the smart play 99 out of a 100 times.

If McCarthy had gone for it....I could have seen the logic....but boy...then your planting the seed of doubt in your kickers head for the season...and that wouldn't have been good either.

 

[StarBoyz83]

Either way if you go for it and lose or kick the fg and lose you're going to get torched on your decision!!! That's an extremely hard decision in the point of a game but I would've went for it also. But not mad they kicked the fg at all.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

Giving a team, let alone Brady, four downs to get 10 yards and drive 40-50 yards for a FG in 1:30 is analogous to leaving a good shooter wide open at the three point line in basketball. At that point you’re hoping they just miss.

 

[Floatyworm]

The big mistake was on the first drive of the 3rd quarter, kicking the field goal on 4th-and-goal at the 3. Terrible decision.

Yup....Like I posted in the game thread....FGs get you beat....how many more times did you think you were gonna get down inside the 5??? You had to get 6 there.

Feels like we learned nothing from last year...and are starting that stupid process all over again.

 

[SoupcanSam]

You guys saying wrong are insane. There is a minute and change left on the clock for brady, and you have to kick a long FG with a kicker who isnt having his best game.

What are the odds brady chokes it with a minute and change left?

You gotta go for that considering the situation and more than likely hindsight outcome. This isnt our first rodeo here.

 

[lsg13]

And there so many things that can go wrong giving a team the ball back with a 1:30 and only needing a FG to win. What’s your point?

It’s about the odds of what is most likely to succeed. The NFL has been consistently keeping analytics since the early 90’s. I’d bet that the odds are even, or better, going for it on 4th and 6 than giving the ball back to a team needing a FG to win and 1:30 on the clock. Teams needing only a FG to win and over a minute to get it win a HUGE percentage of games.

Making decisions like this are the reason for using analytics in the first place. Many times in football gut feeling hesitancy and cautious intuition don’t line up with the actual odds and coaches make the wrong decision because of it. I’m guessing this was one of those times.

I would seriously doubt that going for it from 4th and 6 has a higher chance of success than stopping a team driving for a FG with a minute and a half or less and basically with not timeouts.
All you can really do is take the 3 and hope that one of the other TB players blows it like giving up another turnover... but either way you don't have much of a chance to win... after the hold call we were pretty much toast.

 

[T-RO]

Every coach in the NFL kicks that FG.

True and it just shows how stupid conventional logic w/coaching still is:

-You've gotta say 40% chance Z misses that FG
-And 70% chance even if Z makes it, Brady responds

Odds are way stacked against you by choosing FG there.

I'm expecting way too much math from this forum to make the conclusion, so I'll spell it out: You want to win in that situation... you go for it.

 

[T-RO]

4th and 6 has a higher chance of success than stopping a team driving for a FG with a minute and a half or less and basically with not timeouts.

90 seconds is an eternity in the NFL when you only need a FG.

 

[lsg13]

You guys saying wrong are insane. There is a minute and change left on the clock for brady, and you have to kick a long FG with a kicker who isnt having his best game.

What are the odds brady chokes it with a minute and change left?

You gotta go for that considering the situation and more than likely hindsight outcome. This isnt our first rodeo here.

I would have been ok either way but in reality the overwhelming choice by NFL coaches would be to take the FG, I can't remember a game where a coach went for it on 4th and long when they could have taken a lead with a FG.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

I would seriously doubt that going for it from 4th and 6 has a higher chance of success than stopping a team driving for a FG with a minute and a half or less and basically with not timeouts.
All you can really do is take the 3 and hope that one of the other TB players blows it like giving up another turnover... but either way you don't have much of a chance to win... after the hold call we were pretty much toast.

I don’t remember off the top of my head the exact percentage ( it was over 50% if I’m remembering right) that teams with over a minute and needing a FG to win actually win the game but it was insanely high and that only makes sense.

Four downs to get 10 yards..

Only needing to get 40-50 yards to kick a FG..

These scenarios are analogous to leaving a good shooter wide open at the three point line and you’re only up two. You’re just hoping they miss.

 

[BrassCowboy]

Who here was confident with the win after Dallas went up 29-28? If just one of you honestly say yes, then I'll shut up and admit y'all are right, let's "play for the FG" against the GOAT on his turf with over 1:40 left in the game.

There's a difference btw in playing for the FG with less than 20 seconds left vs. 1:42. Sorry, I would have given 4th and 6 some consideration. They were not stopping Lamb or Coop all game long.

If we would of missed out, would there have been even 1 person on this entire planet that would of been ok with us missing and losing right there. This whole forum would be calling for McCarthy's job right there.
It is easy to play Monday morning qb now but if you were gonna do that, at least look at multiple other dumb things that were real reason Brady had time on the clock.

No way you go for it there. If the kick was a little longer I'd agree with you but that would have been a horrible decision to go for it. My only concern was that he sucked tonight but you still try it and play the odds

Exactly.
Losing sucks, I get it, but you have to play the odds. I am good with this game. They played way better than I expected.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

If we would of missed out, would there have been even 1 person on this entire planet that would of been ok with us missing and losing right there. This whole forum would be calling for McCarthy's job right there.
It is easy to play Monday morning qb now but if you were gonna do that, at least look at multiple other dumb things that were real reason Brady had time on the clock.

Exactly.
Losing sucks, I get it, but you have to play the odds. I am good with this game. They played way better than I expected.

And what if the odds were better for going for it on 4th and 6 versus giving Tom Brady the ball back with 1:30 and four downs to get 10 yards and only 40-50 overall?

You’re assuming the odds were less on getting 4th and 6 and I’m telling you that’s not necessarily the case.

 

[Kingofholland]

Sorry. We said it at the time (I say "we" because so many of us said it). 4th and 6th, 1:42 left, you HAVE to try for the first down instead of kicking a FG. Some of you will counter with, "well, that's what the defense is paid to do, make a stop late in the game, with a lead." Sure. That works against Tom Brady as much as it did against Aaron Rodgers a few years back in the playoffs.

A first down there should have put the Cowboys in better FG range while bleeding the clock. Sometimes you've gotta make that unconventional call, especially when going up against the GOAT. Had they not made the first down? Not mad...how could we be? We knew Brady would bring them back anyway.

Depends how you feel about your defense. But still feel it was the right call.

 

[lsg13]

90 seconds is an eternity in the NFL when you only need a FG.

hindsight is always 20/20, just bad clock management down the stretch.

 

[Verdict]

Who here was confident with the win after Dallas went up 29-28? If just one of you honestly say yes, then I'll shut up and admit y'all are right, let's "play for the FG" against the GOAT on his turf with over 1:40 left in the game.

There's a difference btw in playing for the FG with less than 20 seconds left vs. 1:42. Sorry, I would have given 4th and 6 some consideration. They were not stopping Lamb or Coop all game long.

I thought it was the right call. If TB doesn’t get away with a push off we win the game.

The refs officiated a pretty solid game overall. They missed an intentional grounding on Brady and the push off, but overall it was a decently officiated game.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

hindsight is always 20/20, just bad clock management down the stretch.

Bad clock management?

We had to pass because we hadn’t established a prayer of a run game. The clock does what the clock does when you’re a passing offense and struggling to contain a ferocious pass rush.

 

[SoupcanSam]

I would have been ok either way but in reality the overwhelming choice by NFL coaches would be to take the FG, I can't remember a game where a coach went for it on 4th and long when they could have taken a lead with a FG.

We are talking about a bonehead coach who choose to kick a FG with a banged up kicker at damn near mid field instead of punting it. The choice couldnt have been that overwhelming.

 

[Floatyworm]

Giving a team, let alone Brady, four downs to get 10 yards and drive 40-50 yards for a FG in 1:30 is analogous to leaving a good shooter wide open at the three point line in basketball. At that point you’re hoping they just miss.

Yet...weird how Tampa Bay didn't commit a single penalty in that final drive....Just weird.

 

[lsg13]

I don’t remember off the top of my head the exact percentage ( it was over 50% if I’m remembering right) that teams with over a minute and needing a FG to win actually win the game but it was insanely high and that only makes sense.

Four downs to get 10 yards..

Only needing to get 40-50 yards to kick a FG..

These scenarios are analogous to leaving a good shooter wide open at the three point line and you’re only up two. You’re just hoping they miss.

the other question though is what are the odds for making a 4th and 6, those are the two odds you have to compare.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

Yet...weird how Tampa Bay didn't commit a single penalty in that final drive....Just weird.

And the refs are part of the game. Bad calls are no different than dropped passes or fumbles. Expecting a ref to call a perfect game is absurd, just like expecting a player to never make a mistake. It’s another reason why you don’t give the ball back to a team in that scenario when you could have ran one play designed to get six or more yards and gotten a first down to run more time off the clock.