10 things I think I think playoff edition

[CWR]

Everyone keeps pointing to the SF Run Game vs. Cowboys Run defense as the reason this matchup works in their favor. And that's not wrong - I expect SF to get points and make this a game. Especially if they can limit TurnOvers.

But i have YET to see how the Cowboys Passing attack can really match up well to the SF defense. The Passing attack struggled when teams mix and hide coverage and make Dak second guess or hold on his reads. That's not SF's forte - they are a zone heavy team that just wants to play coverage and rush 4. And Dak is happy to attack that when he understands what they are trying to do.

So yeah, I expect SF to score and run well. But I expect the COwboys offense to score along with them. Which leads to turnovers - and I trust SF to turn it over more than Dallas, leading to an extra possession or two. Favor = Cowboys.

Excellent post, I think you're right. If we can jump on them early I believe we can put them away with a 2 score game. Regardless, even if we do getting a little padding it will continue to be a hard fought game until clock hits zero.

 

[adbutcher]

Great post...

 

[MarcusRock]

11) Dak better show up in the first half.

You didn't say, "I think," therefore motion denied. Lol.

 

[jterrell]

Everyone keeps pointing to the SF Run Game vs. Cowboys Run defense as the reason this matchup works in their favor. And that's not wrong - I expect SF to get points and make this a game. Especially if they can limit TurnOvers.

But i have YET to see how the Cowboys Passing attack can really match up well to the SF defense. The Passing attack struggled when teams mix and hide coverage and make Dak second guess or hold on his reads. That's not SF's forte - they are a zone heavy team that just wants to play coverage and rush 4. And Dak is happy to attack that when he understands what they are trying to do.

So yeah, I expect SF to score and run well. But I expect the COwboys offense to score along with them. Which leads to turnovers - and I trust SF to turn it over more than Dallas, leading to an extra possession or two. Favor = Cowboys.

The problem with run game dependence is any penalty pretty much kills a drive and then you have to run it well in the red zone which can be a different caliber of tough.
SF has only run the ball for 3 more yards per game than Dallas. They are more efficient with it but hasn't been all roses. Only Mitchell and Samuel of RBs average more than 4.5 yards per carry.
Dallas run stopping woes are greatly exaggerated largely because they had so many guys on that defense cycling out with injuries and COVID. This is the healthiest they have been all year and they have the horses to stop the run.

If Dallas passes it well early that run game becomes tough to rely on as you don't want to shorten a game you are losing by multiple scores.

The Dallas blueprint is there. Attack the Cover 3 early and get ahead, Stop the SF run by shutting down Samuel and force Jimmy G to throw it either into coverage or at Trevon Diggs where Jimmy's accuracy has to scare the 49ers coaches to death.

 

[jterrell]

I think, if you're from Dallas, it's from the old Blackie Sherrod's "I think, I think"

Blackie was Scattershooting which I also do

I think I think is Peter King who is an Arkansas guy.

Blackie is legit the GOAT to me.

 

[Crown Royal]

The problem with run game dependence is any penalty pretty much kills a drive and then you have to run it well in the red zone which can be a different caliber of tough.
SF has only run the ball for 3 more yards per game than Dallas. They are more efficient with it but hasn't been all roses. Only Mitchell and Samuel of RBs average more than 4.5 yards per carry.
Dallas run stopping woes are greatly exaggerated largely because they had so many guys on that defense cycling out with injuries and COVID. This is the healthiest they have been all year and they have the horses to stop the run.

If Dallas passes it well early that run game becomes tough to rely on as you don't want to shorten a game you are losing by multiple scores.

The Dallas blueprint is there. Attack the Cover 3 early and get ahead, Stop the SF run by shutting down Samuel and force Jimmy G to throw it either into coverage or at Trevon Diggs where Jimmy's accuracy has to scare the 49ers coaches to death.

I disagree that their run stopping woes are overstated. I think they are there. But I feel they can be mitigated by scheme. And the SF pass offense is ok but stoppable.

SF has a fine, efficient offense. And the defense is coming on. But there is opportunity there I think Dallas can exploit.

 

[Cowboyny]

ode to and yada yada, you've seen these before i imagine

1. I think we are the scariest fan group in the league. I've been pretty surprised at national takes on this game but shocked at the fan base takes. Dallas is a better roster and coaching staff.

2. I think the key to this game on offense will be 2 players: Tyron Smith and Zeke. If Tyron is 95% of his All-Pro self (he wasn't last week but it was his first game back) then the SF DL will struggle to pressure Dak. And Zeke because his blocking and tough running inside allows the offense to open up off play action.

3. I think the defensive key is Jayron Kearse. Dallas has an answer for most anything the 49ers do offensively with Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons. The one tougher match up will be Kearse handling Kittle. Limit Kittle and the SF passing game should turn it over.

4. I think the SF cover 3 should be pretty easy to beat. It's what Quinn used to run before realizing he had to go multiple sets. It reduces strain on a CB to cover but asks a lot of them in run stopping. SF has CBs that fit that role quite well but still struggle a far bit in coverage when that ferocious pass rush isn't getting home.

5. I think it's being underdiscussed how limited Jimmy G has been in the playoffs. He has averaged 142 yards per game passing. That's downright awful and is why SF drafted a QB early last year.

6. I think Shanahan is really just a slightly smarter Jason Garrett. He will live and die with the run game.

7. I think Kellen Moore puts his stamp on his OC career with a virtuoso performance this weekend. Kellen is in line for a number of Head Coach openings and this might be the last week he has a chance to light up the scoreboard. I expect this to be different in all the right ways.

8. I think after being told how great SF is all week come Monday it'll be well you just beat a team that scraped into the playoffs when other teams took week 17 off.

9. I think Micah Parsons is going to spy Deebo Samuel anytime he is near the backfield.

10. I think Dallas wins this weekend but it gets A LOT harder the following week. Seeing Philly would be an unbelievable break. The Cowboys have that entire city shook. Head Coach went from wearing beat Dallas t-shirts to not even playing his starters.

They cannot face Eagles unless it’s the conference championship

 

[zeroburrito]

sounds like peter king. word for word actually.

maybe make it 5 things... or 8.

 

[Canadian BoyzFan]

10 keys to winning:

1. Play fast and up tempo. Do not slow the game down to the benefit of the niners.
2. Need to take multiple deep shots. Niners worst against the pass of 15 yards or greater.
3. Expect trick plays, misdirection and lots of Deebo.
4. Diggs cannot bite and gamble on double moves.
5. Jumbo lines should work well against the niners and be sure Pollard is involved.
6. Get Coop going early
7. Let the Lion roar and roam. Line him up everywhere. It’s time to totally unleash him.
8. Run blitz a lot. Get them behind the sticks and make Jimmy beat us. Not a great 3rd down team.
9. Dak needs to scramble and show he’s a threat to pull it down and run with it.
10. Greg the Leg - has to hit his kicks.

 

[visionary]

there is no way we see philly....its either going to tampa or playing rams/AZ winner at home....I take AZ at home

no way
AZ will school us
Brady has fewer weapons and we can take him

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

no way
AZ will school us
Brady has fewer weapons and we can take him

AZ didn't school.us.

Came down to stopping their last drive. I know we didn't but I rather play them at home than tampa on to he road

 

[Blast From The Past]

11) Dak better show up in the first half.

Can't start slow. Receivers have to catch everything in their zip code even if not between the numbers. And Zeke Elliot has to step up his game. Moore has to call a game with imagination and motion. DQ has to have his run stopping game on point. We have the horse power to win if our guys in all 3 phases show up.

 

[visionary]

Can't start slow. Receivers have to catch everything in their zip code even if not between the numbers. And Zeke Elliot has to step up his game. Moore has to call a game with imagination and motion. DQ has to have his run stopping game on point. We have the horse power to win if our guys in all 3 phases show up.

this is the Key also
Our WRs have a bad habit of dropping passes, that cannot happen (esp you CD)