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Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Height: 6-6. Weight: 225.
Projected 40 Time: 4.72.
Projected Round (2019): 1.
9/13/18: Herbert completed 10-of-21 passes for 281 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions against Portland State. In 2018, he has completed 64 percent of his passes for 531 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions.
8/28/18: Sources who have already completed advance work on the 2019 NFL Draft's class say Herbert has big-time potential. He only played in eight games during 2017, but completed 67 percent of his passes for 1,750 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. The sophomore also ran for five touchdowns. As a freshman, Herbert completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,936 yards with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Herbert displays good size and a strong arm with the ability to loft in touch passes. He can drop in passes with nice ball placement that leads his receivers, and he beats quality coverage with the location of his passes. With his height and size, Herbert can comfortably stand tall in the pocket and demonstrate the patience to let routes develop. Along with his arm talent, Herbert is a quality athlete who has the ability to pick up yards on the ground.
For the NFL, Herbert needs to improve his field vision and working through his progressions. His college offense often has him throwing to his first target or only focusing on one side of the field. Still, there is no doubt that Herbert has the skill set to start on Sundays and possesses plenty of upside to develop.
Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn
Height: 6-2. Weight: 210.
Projected 40 Time: 4.65.
Projected Round (2019): 1-2.
9/13/18: Stidham has completed 68 percent of his passes in 2018 for 386 yards and two touchdowns.
Stidham was 6-of-11 for 113 yards and a touchdown against Alabama State. In Week 1 versus Washington, Stidham finished completing 26-of-36 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown. That tape won't blow NFL evaluators away, but it also shouldn't hurt him considering the quality of his opponent. Stidham led his team to a win despite the offensive line really struggling with Washington's defense.
8/28/18: According to NFL teams' preseason data provided by team sources, Stidham checks in at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds. He also has 32-inch arms, 9.5-inch hands, and a wingspan of 75.88 inches. He is said to run the 40 in 4.65 seconds.
Stidham completed 67 percent of his passes in 2017 for 3,158 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. Early in the season, Stidham had some struggles, but he steadily improved and threw more accurately while showing more comfort in the pocket. Stidham came through with some efficient games to knock off both undefeated Georgia and Alabama. He made real strides during the 2017 season.
"It's the tale of two tapes," said one scout. "I think he could end up being worthy of a [first-round pick]. He wasn't playing with top bona fide receivers either [in 2017]. [The Tigers] say he is going to have more command of the offense this year. He has that side-arm release, but he's a good player. He's a pretty good athlete, and he has some speed now. There are things for him to work on, but I believe he's worthy of a first-round projection entering the season."
Another NFC scout who was at spring games and who attended spring practices was even higher on Stidham's pro potential. They were very effusive in their praise for Stidham and think he could end up being a high first-round pick. Here is how they summarized Stidham:
"Okay size; growth potential; high football IQ; good, but not great, arm with good mechanics and ability to change arm slot; better touch than power thrower; quick release to beat the rush. He improved his eyes versus pressure over the last nine games [of 2017]. He has a good mental clock; very mobile [with] excellent speed for a quarterback; [a] legitimate threat on the ground - he beat Alabama because he continually broke contain on crucial third downs. Plus. he's got an incredible story of perseverance that defines his mettle as a person. The kid is a legit winner. Those are all the types of positives that will make him grow quickly on general managers and directors as season wears on if he continues his ascent. He's built mentally and skill-set wise for the pro landscape and has the makeup and goods to run a franchise."
"Not as physically gifted as Herbert in Oregon, but [Stidham] can throw a good ball. He has very good mobility to execute flexible scheme design, and his football IQ is as good as it gets. He's a pro already in that regard and it was pretty easy to see. Guys like him acclimate quickly and win locker rooms not just with approach but he has a good skill set to back it up as a player also."
As a freshman at Baylor, Stidham flashed by completing 69 percent of his passes for 1,265 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. His freshman season was ended early because of injury, but he flashed serious ability with arm strength, athleticism and accuracy. After the scandal that claimed the job of Art Briles, Stidham eventually landed at Auburn after attending community college for a year.
Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Height: 6-3. Weight: 226.
Projected 40 Time: 4.85.
Projected Round (2019): 1-2.
9/13/18: Lock has completed 74.3 percent of his passes in 2018 for 687 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Scouts who were through Missouri fall camp label Lock's arm is legit. He has a rifle and is a good athlete. They say that he can really spin it and is able to make every throw required in the NFL. Sources believe his skill set and athleticism are similar to Jay Cutler but offset with a nice-guy personality that is similar to Eli Manning. Lock is a quiet guy and not a vocal rah-rah leader who takes over the room. He does not like to be the center of attention and is a little nerdy. Some general managers and coaches want their quarterback to be a commanding personality to lead the team, and Lock does not fit that type of player.
8/28/18: According to NFL teams' preseason data provided by team sources, Lock checks in at 6-foot-3, 226 pounds. He has 33.63-inch arms, and a wingspan of 77.5 inches. He is said to run the 40 in 4.85 seconds. Sources say Lock is known to be a quiet player who is not a vocal leader. His lack of leadership skills could hurt him with some team evaluators who want their quarterback to have a presence as a team leader.
Lock set the SEC single regular-season record for touchdown passes in 2017 with 43. He went on a tear in the last half of the year to lead Missouri to six straight wins after a 1-5 start. Lock completed 58 percent of his passes in 2017 for 3,964 yards with 44 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
Lock is a gunslinger-style quarterback who has a big arm with the ability to throw any pass. However, he needs to improve his accuracy, field vision, and the speed at which he works through progressions. Lock can be prone to overthrows, plus can put too much heat on some passes. Lock has good size and can fit the pass into tight windows. He throws the ball well downfield and shows some timing and anticipation. Lock does have the propensity to force throws to covered wideouts, occasionally trusting his arm too much to beat tight coverage. He also has some mobility. Lock could stand to make improvements before going to the NFL, thus he was wise to return to Missouri before turning pro.
Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern
Height: 6-4. Weight: 227.
Projected 40 Time: 4.75.
Projected Round (2019): 2-3.
9/13/18: In 2018, Thorson has completed 59.4 percent of his pass for 370 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception.
Against Purdue, Thorson completed 16-of-27 passes for 172 yards. Overall, that was a solid start to the year. Thorson did not look 100 percent yet as a runner, but he showed some improved ball placement and mechanics in his season debut, plus Northwestern platooned him and backup T.J. Green.
8/28/18: According to NFL teams' preseason data provided by team sources, Thorson checks in at 6-foot-4, 227 pounds. He also has 31.5-inch arms, 9.75-inch hands, and a wingspan of 76.5 inches. He is said to run the 40 in 4.75 seconds as well.
In 2017, Thorson completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,844 yards with 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He picked up eight rushing touchdowns as well. Thorson suffered a torn ACL in Northwestern's bowl game after making a catch on a halfback throwback. His numbers in 2017 were held back by a terrible offensive line, awful wide receivers and zero play-makers at his disposal. Thorson completed 59 percent of his passes in 2016 for 3,182 yards with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
***USER-BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1*** first reported last season that Thorson would return for his senior year. I had heard early in the fall of 2017 that Thorson would go back unless he graded out as a first-rounder by the NFL Draft Advisory. Scouts who were through Northwestern told me that they were impressed with what they saw from Thorson on tape and in practice. Thorson has shown that he has pro potential in terms of his skill set. He can throw the deep out with a fastball that can be fit into tight windows. Thorson also has a quick delivery, but is a bit too mechanical. Scouts say that he has a strong arm, is smart and athletic, and improves year over year.
In speaking with a general manager who watched tape of Thorson early last November, they graded Thorson as a late second-/early third-rounder. They thought he was a decent athlete, but was bit mechanical as a thrower and doesn't go downfield enough. Thorson wasn't without some lowlights on tape. However, a lot of Thorson's mistakes came from trying to do too much with his lackluster supporting cast was terrible; if he didn't make a play for Northwestern, nobody else would. His performance in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin was extremely impressive, although one of those trying-too-hard mistakes led to the comeback effort falling short.
Early in fall 2017, some scouts said that they anticipated giving Thorson a second-round grade, unless he fell off with his play. At the same time, they thought he could rise in the leadup to the 2018 NFL Draft. The reason for that is he a good leader who gets along well with all of his teammates. While Thorson is a devout Christian, he knows how to be one of the guys and get along with the different groups in the locker room. They think that evaluators could fall in love with Thorson during the interview process.
Ryan Finley, QB, N.C. State
Height: 6-3. Weight: 208.
Projected 40 Time: 4.80.
Projected Round (2019): 2-3.
9/13/18: In 2018, Finley has completed 74 percent of his passes for 679 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.
8/28/18: Scouts who did advance work for the 2019 NFL Draft were impressed with what they saw from Finley. They think he has the talent to play at the next level and liked the tape he produced from his junior year. If Finley can build on his 2017 season, he has the upside to rise in the leadup to the 2019 NFL Draft due to the quarterback-hungry nature of the league. According to NFL teams' preseason data provided by team sources, Finley checks in at 6-foot-3, 208 pounds. He has 33.5-inch arms, 9.38-inch hands, and a wingspan of 77.5 inches as well.
Finley was a good game-manager for the Wolfpack in 2017, completing 65 percent of his passes for 3,518 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He made good decisions and protected the football well. In 2016, Finley completed 60 percent of his passes for 3,055 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
There is a lot to like about Finley translating to the NFL. The most important trait for any quarterback is accuracy, which Finley has. Consistently, he demonstrates good ball placement to complete passes and keep the ball away from the defense. Finley makes good decisions and shows impressive ball security. He is adept at avoiding interceptions and rarely makes mistakes from being overly aggressive. Finley improved his deep ball passing as a junior and made some beautiful throws downfield. There are a few things that Finley could stand to improve as a senior. Field vision is an issue for the next level, as Finley can lock onto his primary read. He needs to move his eyes and work through progressions. Starring down his primary receiver will lead to interceptions.
Shea Patterson, QB, Michigan
Height: 6-2. Weight: 203.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Projected Round (2019): 2-3.
9/13/18: Patterson has connected on 68 percent of his passes in 2018 for 352 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.
Patterson struggled to move the ball against Notre Dame in the 2018 opener and was indecisive for a lot of the game. Against the Fighting Irish, he completed 20-of-30 passes for 227 yards with an interception, plus lost a critical fumble thanks to poor ball security. He showed a bad habit to retreat and backpedal in the pocket rather than getting the ball out. He felt the rush when it wasn't there at times and held the ball too long when the pocket was collapsing. The outing against the Fighting Irish is not a tape that makes Patterson look like a first-round pick.
8/28/18: Patterson transferred to Michigan after last season, and his game could really improve under Jim Harbaugh. In a tumultuous 2017 for Ole Miss, Patterson completed 64 percent of his passes for 2,259 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions before a season-ending knee injury. Scouting sources have told me that they think Patterson could be a stronger version of Johnny Manziel without all the off-the-field problems. Patterson (6-2, 203) completed 55 percent of his passes for 880 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions in his three games of 2016. He has a good skill set and the talent around him to produce well in 2018.
Will Grier, QB, West Virginia
Height: 6-2. Weight: 221.
Projected 40 Time: 4.80.
Projected Round (2019): 2-4.
9/13/18: In 2018, Grier has completed 77 percent of his passes for 761 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception.
8/28/18: According to NFL teams' preseason data provided by team sources, Grier checks in at 6-foot-2, 221 pounds. He has 30.88-inch arms, 9.48-inch hands, and a wingspan of 74.5 inches. He is said to run the 40 in 4.80 seconds.
Grier played well overall for West Virginia in 2017. He has a quality arm and can throw the ball with accuracy, but needs to improve his field vision and decision-making for the NFL. Grier was only in his first full season as a starter in 2017, so he was wise return to West Virginia for 2018 to improve before going pro. For 2017, Grier completed 64 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also had to have surgery after a finger injury sustained versus Texas. That caused him to miss the final two games of the year, against Oklahoma and Utah.
In 2015 playing for Florida, Grier completed 66 percent of his passes for 1,204 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. He was impressive for the Gators before testing positive for steroids. That led to him transferring to West Virginia. Sources say that Grier and his family can be high-maintenance personalities who some teams are going to shy away from.
Brian Lewerke, QB, Michigan State
Height: 6-3. Weight: 212.
Projected 40 Time: 4.80.
Projected Round (2019): 2-4.
9/13/18: Lewerke has completed 69 percent of his passes this season for 601 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
8/28/18: One team source who has done advance work on the 2019 NFL Draft said they like the stature, field vision, processing speed, and how the ball comes out of the hand of Lewerke, Oregon's Justin Herbert, Auburn's Jarrett Stidham and Iowa State's Kyle Kempt. Of course, those prospects could rise and fall over the course of the 2018 season, but they have nice starts with impressing some evaluators.
In 2017, Lewerke completed 59 percent of his passes for 2,580 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He needs to improve his accuracy in 2018.
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