At some point, teams are going to shift their thinking on QB contracts

kskboys

Well-Known Member
Messages
44,059
Reaction score
46,962
IDK man. Problem is, if you don't have a Qb, you got nuthin'. And since starter quality QB's are rare, even the 15-25 range gets paid handsomely.
 

cern

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,900
Reaction score
21,050
Qb's are signed with hope and expectation. Life is full of disappointments.
 

Hawkeye0202

Well-Known Member
Messages
23,017
Reaction score
42,502
No they aren't. As always qb will be the single hardest position to keep stocked in the NFL. And yes the absolute size of qb contracts continues to grow. But so does the cap. As a percentage of cap we are where we have been for a long time.

Tony signed his extension in 2013 and had 55mm guaranteed. The cap was 123mm. That's 45% of cap.

Cousins signed for 84mm guaranteed in 2018. The cap last year was 177mm. That's 47% of cap.

Nothing is any different now than it was going on a decade ago.
I wish people would do some critical thinking before making declarations like QBs will be devalued and paid less in the future.

:clap::clap:the only difference is NFL/owners are making more money, which they're required to share with the players. Read this......you can probably make a case we as fans are responsible coz we continue making the NFL a profitable monster.

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com...Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NFL-revenue.aspx

The cap grows from contractually obligated revenue like sponsorship and TV deals, and then projections of local revenue based on the year before. It rose from $155 million in 2016 to the $167 million for the coming season.

A big driver is the new Thursday night TV package, which grew from $300 million to $450 million a year after CBS and NBC agreed to a new two-year deal last year. That comes to nearly $5 million extra per club. The other national TV contracts also have annual increases that add to the cap.
 

DHCBF66

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,278
Reaction score
1,555
I think everything runs in cycles, and the QB market has become such a high percentage of the cap that eventually the pendulum will have to swing back the other way.

Running backs were considered the franchise player 20 years ago. Then over time the position became devalued. Now it seems to be going back the other way.

It's one thing to have Tom Brady eating up 10 to 15 percent of your cap, but it's a very different matter if you have Andy Dalton eating up 75 percent of that.

Does a team with Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Case Keenam, or the like have a high probability of beating a Brady led team? Probably not, in large part to the QB deficit.

Teams are winning SBs with QBs on their rookie deals. Russell Wilson is a recent example of it, as was Ruthlessraper. Dak won 13 games as a rookie. That just goes to show you that if you surround a young QB with a lot of talent he can win.

Conversely, if you pay a QB to carry your team, he had better be able to carry the team. I like Dak Prescott, even though I think Tony should have been the QB when he was healthy. I'm still a Dak fan. But to pay Dak $30M per year would be beyond stupid.

Offer Dak a good deal. $20M per year for 3 years total is plenty. Then they can check out his contract again in two years. If Dak won't go for that, make him play for peanuts this year and if he looks like he is going to sit out, draft a QB early.

If Dak wants outrageous money (he may not be looking for outrageous money) play him and tag him twice. But realistically, there is no way a team is going to be able to afford to sign a player after that second tag, because all of the leverage goes to the player at that point.
Owners want to win, this gives the players all the leverage. As long as the cap keeps going up so will the pay for key positions.Back up QBs are making more $$$ than guys like Aikman and Montana did in their hay days.
 

Hawkeye0202

Well-Known Member
Messages
23,017
Reaction score
42,502
Owners want to win, this gives the players all the leverage. As long as the cap keeps going up so will the pay for key positions.Back up QBs are making more $$$ than guys like Aikman and Montana did in their hay days.

Excellent point! For example, just read last week Broncos QB, Case Keenum is set to make either 18 or $19m next season.
 

kskboys

Well-Known Member
Messages
44,059
Reaction score
46,962
No they aren't. As always qb will be the single hardest position to keep stocked in the NFL. And yes the absolute size of qb contracts continues to grow. But so does the cap. As a percentage of cap we are where we have been for a long time.

Tony signed his extension in 2013 and had 55mm guaranteed. The cap was 123mm. That's 45% of cap.

Cousins signed for 84mm guaranteed in 2018. The cap last year was 177mm. That's 47% of cap.

Nothing is any different now than it was going on a decade ago.

I wish people would do some critical thinking before making declarations like QBs will be devalued and paid less in the future.
Math, ain't it a booger?

The guarantee doesn't come off the cap in one year.
 

CouchCoach

Staff member
Messages
41,122
Reaction score
74,900
CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
I can't imagine a scenario where the most important position on the field isn't also the best paid.
Agree but double that of the closest and possibly the better player is pushing it. Some of these highly paid QB's are not even in the top 3-5 best players on the team. There is a shortage of Tier 1's so Tier 2's get Tier 1 money.
 

kskboys

Well-Known Member
Messages
44,059
Reaction score
46,962
Agree but double that of the closest and possibly the better player is pushing it. Some of these highly paid QB's are not even in the top 3-5 best players on the team. There is a shortage of Tier 1's so Tier 2's get Tier 1 money.
And tier 1's are getting stupid money due to importance of position!!!!
 

Verdict

Well-Known Member
Messages
25,961
Reaction score
20,118
I think teams would like to do that but I don't think it will happen.

Many GMs need to win now to keep their jobs.

How many QBs that make it to the Super Bowl are not either a high draft pick or high paid veteran?

Brady - 27M cap hit in 2018 despite "bargain" contract.

Goff - Top 5 pick.

Wentz - Top 5 pick

Russell Wilson is the only one that comes to mind in recent years that was not a 1st round pick and still on his rookie contract.

Good teams
Want to go for it while they're good plus they have a bottom of the 1st pick.

Middle of the Road teams
Don't have a top 10 pick but if they're middle of the road and need a QB, then they probably have a good roster other than QB. They either need to trade up or pay for a veteran QB. Trading up to top 5 requires many draft picks.

Bad Teams
If they need a QB, they'll draft one; although not always (Cleveland in 2017, Giants in 2018).


I think some teams will take the approach of building up the non-QB talent on the roster before adding the high pick or expensive veteran QB.

In the past bad teams have used high picks on QBs and then dumped then into a terrible roster. By the time the roster is good, that QB is getting close to free agency.

I understand what you are saying but it's a horrible idea to overpay for Andy Dalton, or Ryan Tannehill. That's how these teams get mired in mediocrity.

Part of the problem is the insistence on the "formula" of one franchise QB that stays in the pocket and passes the ball 40 times per game.

A team could add three low level QBs to the roster that have jets for legs, who can pass a little bit, and turn the NFL on its head. The problem hasn't been the success of those teams it is the injuries to the QBs.

At some point the worm will turn in the same way that running backs have experienced a resurgence. There are not enough Pat Mahommes in the world to put one on every team.
 

DFWJC

Well-Known Member
Messages
59,330
Reaction score
48,172
No they aren't. As always qb will be the single hardest position to keep stocked in the NFL. And yes the absolute size of qb contracts continues to grow. But so does the cap. As a percentage of cap we are where we have been for a long time.

Tony signed his extension in 2013 and had 55mm guaranteed. The cap was 123mm. That's 45% of cap.

Cousins signed for 84mm guaranteed in 2018. The cap last year was 177mm. That's 47% of cap.

Nothing is any different now than it was going on a decade ago.

I wish people would do some critical thinking before making declarations like QBs will be devalued and paid less in the future.
I get your point
but I need to call you on posting full duration of contract guaranteed dollars as a percentage of only one year of cap.

Not very relevant.
 

Verdict

Well-Known Member
Messages
25,961
Reaction score
20,118
I think 20 is fair
I wouldn’t mind building in some incentives to make it better if he earns them
The QB contracts are crazy and some day they may swing back but barring a change in the CBA I don’t see it changing anytime soon
The rules favor the passing game so much I think it is a big part of it being a passing league
Pass rushers and pass throwers get paid huge money


Yes, but paying a QB $30M doesn't make him pass the ball any better.
 

Verdict

Well-Known Member
Messages
25,961
Reaction score
20,118
No they aren't. As always qb will be the single hardest position to keep stocked in the NFL. And yes the absolute size of qb contracts continues to grow. But so does the cap. As a percentage of cap we are where we have been for a long time.

Tony signed his extension in 2013 and had 55mm guaranteed. The cap was 123mm. That's 45% of cap.

Cousins signed for 84mm guaranteed in 2018. The cap last year was 177mm. That's 47% of cap.

Nothing is any different now than it was going on a decade ago.

I wish people would do some critical thinking before making declarations like QBs will be devalued and paid less in the future.

Why would you take the entire length of acontract and compare it to a single years cap?
 

ItzKelz

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,838
Reaction score
9,164
I think everything runs in cycles, and the QB market has become such a high percentage of the cap that eventually the pendulum will have to swing back the other way.

Running backs were considered the franchise player 20 years ago. Then over time the position became devalued. Now it seems to be going back the other way.

It's one thing to have Tom Brady eating up 10 to 15 percent of your cap, but it's a very different matter if you have Andy Dalton eating up 75 percent of that.

Does a team with Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Case Keenam, or the like have a high probability of beating a Brady led team? Probably not, in large part to the QB deficit.

Teams are winning SBs with QBs on their rookie deals. Russell Wilson is a recent example of it, as was Ruthlessraper. Dak won 13 games as a rookie. That just goes to show you that if you surround a young QB with a lot of talent he can win.

Conversely, if you pay a QB to carry your team, he had better be able to carry the team. I like Dak Prescott, even though I think Tony should have been the QB when he was healthy. I'm still a Dak fan. But to pay Dak $30M per year would be beyond stupid.

Offer Dak a good deal. $20M per year for 3 years total is plenty. Then they can check out his contract again in two years. If Dak won't go for that, make him play for peanuts this year and if he looks like he is going to sit out, draft a QB early.

If Dak wants outrageous money (he may not be looking for outrageous money) play him and tag him twice. But realistically, there is no way a team is going to be able to afford to sign a player after that second tag, because all of the leverage goes to the player at that point.
The only cycle we have seen is QB's get paid more than everyone else even as the cap goes up every year; if I am wrong about this please share. I dont get why fans care; but Dak deserves to get paid. 20 mil is only 3 million more than Romo got on his big contract back in 2013 after leading his team to 3 straight 8-8 seasons. Not only has the cap gone up significantly since then but Dak the last 3 seasons has led his team to the second most wins in the NFL since he has been in the NFL.
 

Diehardblues

Well-Known Member
Messages
55,143
Reaction score
36,328
The current situation simply places more importance in having an elite QB.

And I don’t expect it to change anytime soon as Salary Cap is dictating.

Teams with a more elite QB is easier to surround in Cap era.
 

Verdict

Well-Known Member
Messages
25,961
Reaction score
20,118
IDK man. Problem is, if you don't have a Qb, you got nuthin'. And since starter quality QB's are rare, even the 15-25 range gets paid handsomely.

Yes. But I'm saying that is part of the problem. They are paying bad QBs a lot of money.
 
Top