Dak's Value and Russel Wilson's 1st Extension

J12B

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On July 31, 2015, Russel Wilson signed a contract extension worth 87.6 million/61.5 million guaranteed for 4 years with the Seattle Seahawks. This was after winning a Superbowl several months earlier of course and as he was entering the final year of his rookie deal. Wilson did everything he needed to do and had the LOB playing on the other side and a dominating RB, Marshawn Lynch, behind him.

Let's take a look at Wilson's first 3 year's in the league and compare them to Dak's first 3 years:

Wilson - Passing
2012 26TD, 10INT, 3118 yards, 64.1%, 7.9AVG
2013 26TD, 9INT, 3357 yards, 63.1%, 8.2AVG
2014 20TD, 7INT, 3457 yards, 63.1%, 7.7AVG

Dak - Passing
2016 23TD, 4INT, 3,667 yards, 67.8%, 8.0 AVG
2017 22TD, 13INT, 3324 yards, 62.9%, 6.8 AVG
2018 22TD, 8INT, 3885 yards, 67.7%, 7.4 AVG

What about running the ball as a QB?

Wilson - Rushing
2012 489 yards, 5.2 AVG, 4TD, 2Fumbles
2013 539 yards, 5.6 AVG, 1TD, 2Fumbles
2014 849 yards, 7.2 AVG, 6TD, 5Fumbles

Dak - Rushing
2016 282 yards, 4.9 AVG, 6TD, 3Fumbles
2017 357 yards, 6.3 AVG, 6TD, 0Fumbles
2018 305 yards, 4.1 AVG, 6TD, 4Fumbles

Based on these numbers, I'd say Wilson had a better start to his career-but- Dak is certainly close. Dak might even have an argument that he is the better passer as he out produced Wilson in yards and percentage completion. Wilson is far more mobile compared to Dak. But again, Dak is close in effectiveness.

So, Wilson's 2015 deal should be a benchmark in determining Dak's value today. The QB market has changed with a couple of teams overpaying in free agency (49ers and Garappolo, Vikings and Cousins), but hopefully those deals do not influence Dak's deal all that much.

My guess is a 4 year 104 million/75 million guaranteed deal is happening fairly soon, definitely before the start of the season for the Quarteback of the Dallas Cowboys.
 

Bullflop

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Dak stands to get a healthy raise in salary -- that much is a certainty. The only question to be answered is how much it will end up being. I don't believe it will be (nor should be) as much as Wilson got in light of not being quite the threat that he is. There's no getting around the fact that RW has a Super Bowl to his credit, as Stephen pointed out lately. When all is said and done, I think both the Cowboys and Dak will be satisfied with their contract.
 

WillieBeamen

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Give him the contract Russell got after winning the SB. Dont go above that
 

CowboyRoy

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On July 31, 2015, Russel Wilson signed a contract extension worth 87.6 million/61.5 million guaranteed for 4 years with the Seattle Seahawks. This was after winning a Superbowl several months earlier of course and as he was entering the final year of his rookie deal. Wilson did everything he needed to do and had the LOB playing on the other side and a dominating RB, Marshawn Lynch, behind him.

Let's take a look at Wilson's first 3 year's in the league and compare them to Dak's first 3 years:

Wilson - Passing
2012 26TD, 10INT, 3118 yards, 64.1%, 7.9AVG
2013 26TD, 9INT, 3357 yards, 63.1%, 8.2AVG
2014 20TD, 7INT, 3457 yards, 63.1%, 7.7AVG

Dak - Passing
2016 23TD, 4INT, 3,667 yards, 67.8%, 8.0 AVG
2017 22TD, 13INT, 3324 yards, 62.9%, 6.8 AVG
2018 22TD, 8INT, 3885 yards, 67.7%, 7.4 AVG

What about running the ball as a QB?

Wilson - Rushing
2012 489 yards, 5.2 AVG, 4TD, 2Fumbles
2013 539 yards, 5.6 AVG, 1TD, 2Fumbles
2014 849 yards, 7.2 AVG, 6TD, 5Fumbles

Dak - Rushing
2016 282 yards, 4.9 AVG, 6TD, 3Fumbles
2017 357 yards, 6.3 AVG, 6TD, 0Fumbles
2018 305 yards, 4.1 AVG, 6TD, 4Fumbles

Based on these numbers, I'd say Wilson had a better start to his career-but- Dak is certainly close. Dak might even have an argument that he is the better passer as he out produced Wilson in yards and percentage completion. Wilson is far more mobile compared to Dak. But again, Dak is close in effectiveness.

So, Wilson's 2015 deal should be a benchmark in determining Dak's value today. The QB market has changed with a couple of teams overpaying in free agency (49ers and Garappolo, Vikings and Cousins), but hopefully those deals do not influence Dak's deal all that much.

My guess is a 4 year 104 million/75 million guaranteed deal is happening fairly soon, definitely before the start of the season for the Quarteback of the Dallas Cowboys.

Most reasoning is sound, but its not 2015, its 2019. And unfortunately some fool doled out close to 30 million for Kousins and Garrappolo. And now 35 million for Wilson.

So I think it will wind up being more in the 27-28 million range per year.
 

G2

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Most reasoning is sound, but its not 2015, its 2019. And unfortunately some fool doled out close to 30 million for Kousins and Garrappolo. And now 35 million for Wilson.

So I think it will wind up being more in the 27-28 million range per year.
Yeah. And wait until Mahomes gets extended...Yikes.
 

Jarv

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Most reasoning is sound, but its not 2015, its 2019. And unfortunately some fool doled out close to 30 million for Kousins and Garrappolo. And now 35 million for Wilson.

So I think it will wind up being more in the 27-28 million range per year.
Agreed, comparing 2015 cap numbers and 2019 numbers are not apples to apples.

The offset is that Wilson won a superbowl before the extension and Dak didn't.
 

Brax

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On July 31, 2015, Russel Wilson signed a contract extension worth 87.6 million/61.5 million guaranteed for 4 years with the Seattle Seahawks. This was after winning a Superbowl several months earlier of course and as he was entering the final year of his rookie deal. Wilson did everything he needed to do and had the LOB playing on the other side and a dominating RB, Marshawn Lynch, behind him.

Let's take a look at Wilson's first 3 year's in the league and compare them to Dak's first 3 years:

Wilson - Passing
2012 26TD, 10INT, 3118 yards, 64.1%, 7.9AVG
2013 26TD, 9INT, 3357 yards, 63.1%, 8.2AVG
2014 20TD, 7INT, 3457 yards, 63.1%, 7.7AVG

Dak - Passing
2016 23TD, 4INT, 3,667 yards, 67.8%, 8.0 AVG
2017 22TD, 13INT, 3324 yards, 62.9%, 6.8 AVG
2018 22TD, 8INT, 3885 yards, 67.7%, 7.4 AVG

What about running the ball as a QB?

Wilson - Rushing
2012 489 yards, 5.2 AVG, 4TD, 2Fumbles
2013 539 yards, 5.6 AVG, 1TD, 2Fumbles
2014 849 yards, 7.2 AVG, 6TD, 5Fumbles

Dak - Rushing
2016 282 yards, 4.9 AVG, 6TD, 3Fumbles
2017 357 yards, 6.3 AVG, 6TD, 0Fumbles
2018 305 yards, 4.1 AVG, 6TD, 4Fumbles

Based on these numbers, I'd say Wilson had a better start to his career-but- Dak is certainly close. Dak might even have an argument that he is the better passer as he out produced Wilson in yards and percentage completion. Wilson is far more mobile compared to Dak. But again, Dak is close in effectiveness.

So, Wilson's 2015 deal should be a benchmark in determining Dak's value today. The QB market has changed with a couple of teams overpaying in free agency (49ers and Garappolo, Vikings and Cousins), but hopefully those deals do not influence Dak's deal all that much.

My guess is a 4 year 104 million/75 million guaranteed deal is happening fairly soon, definitely before the start of the season for the Quarteback of the Dallas Cowboys.
When Dak has 2 super bowls under his belt you can start to compare him, stats are useful tools but not in this case.RW wins games by himself Dak needs the supporting cast. RW is a great QB Dak is still learning how to be a consistent QB, to me there is no comparison to be made and if Dak was the QB that RW is paying him wouldn't be a problem.
 

Bleu Star

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He won't get paid anything near what Russ got paid. But he'll get his. I still think it'll be somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 to 20 mil per. 40 something guaranteed.
4 year. 80 mil. 45 guaranteed. That's my call.

A fair contract that rewards early success and gives him something to shoot for in that next contract. Sounds appropriate to me.

Lastly, while Dak wants his and is definitely confident in himself, he knows he is nowhere near Russ in terms of talent. Still a ways to go... But he can get there if he puts his head down & works.

#Truth
 

sean10mm

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He won't get paid anything near what Russ got paid. But he'll get his. I still think it'll be somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 to 20 mil per. 40 something guaranteed.
4 year. 80 mil. 45 guaranteed. That's my call.

A fair contract that rewards early success and gives him something to shoot for in that next contract. Sounds appropriate to me.

Lastly, while Dak wants his and is definitely confident in himself, he knows he is nowhere near Russ in terms of talent. Still a ways to go... But he can get there if he puts his head down & works.

#Truth

You can't compare 2015 contract numbers to 2019 contract numbers. There has been way too much salary cap inflation since then.

2015 salary cap: $143m
2019 salary cap: $188m (+31%)

So ONLY based on the salary cap itself going up, Wilson's 2015 contract in 2019 actually works out to 4 years/$115m ($81m guaranteed), $29m per.

But that's actually understating it a little.

Why? Because the % of the cap spent on quarterbacks compared to all other positions has gone up, too. So not only has the salary cap pie gotten bigger, but quarterbacks on average have taken a bigger share of that bigger pie. So that number I posted isn't really the 2019 version of the 2015 contract - it's still a bit too small. Making matters worse, there are really only two kinds of QB contract you see now - dirt cheap (for rookies and "Ryan Leaf on oxycontin" tier failures) and gigantic (for everyone else).

Kirk "0-1 in the playoffs" Cousins got $84m GUARANTEED from just a 3 year contract lmao, there is no way Dak is taking $45m guaranteed over 4 years. This isn't even a comment on how good Dak is, it's just the reality of the market.
 

JohnsKey19

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Qb contracts are "who's next, not who's best"

Unfortunately, Dak is next.

Basically, in a nutshell. Although I don't think he'll get 35 million per like Wilson. I'd guess something between 28-30.
 

conner01

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Most reasoning is sound, but its not 2015, its 2019. And unfortunately some fool doled out close to 30 million for Kousins and Garrappolo. And now 35 million for Wilson.

So I think it will wind up being more in the 27-28 million range per year.
I’m hoping for 25 but a 2015 contract means nothing at all
 

Hawkeye0202

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You can't compare 2015 contract numbers to 2019 contract numbers. There has been way too much salary cap inflation since then.

2015 salary cap: $143m
2019 salary cap: $188m (+31%)

So ONLY based on the salary cap itself going up, Wilson's 2015 contract in 2019 actually works out to 4 years/$115m ($81m guaranteed), $29m per.

But that's actually understating it a little.

Why? Because the % of the cap spent on quarterbacks compared to all other positions has gone up, too. So not only has the salary cap pie gotten bigger, but quarterbacks on average have taken a bigger share of that bigger pie. So that number I posted isn't really the 2019 version of the 2015 contract - it's still a bit too small. Making matters worse, there are really only two kinds of QB contract you see now - dirt cheap (for rookies and "Ryan Leaf on oxycontin" tier failures) and gigantic (for everyone else).

Kirk "0-1 in the playoffs" Cousins got $84m GUARANTEED from just a 3 year contract lmao, there is no way Dak is taking $45m guaranteed over 4 years. This isn't even a comment on how good Dak is, it's just the reality of the market.

Good post!
 

glimmerman

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I have to admit that the stats look good. But there is more to it then that. I am sure it will be fair for both sides. I am anxious to see how high his agent starts. And how low we start.
 

AbeBeta

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All you folks calling for 22 mill or 18 mill are year need your heads checked. When Garrapalo gets 27.5 per year with very few starts under his belt, you've gotta see that as the lowball initial offer.
 
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