Twitter: Sturm comparing Dak downfield completion percentage with other league QBs

Kaiser

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I would argue that during his rookie campaign things were simplified to the point that he didn't have to see the field well.

It was simplified somewhat but they said in the second half of his rookie year they were running the full offense. The other side of the coin is that Dak was making the jump from college and executing an NFL offense as a rookie, something guys like Romo and Drew Brees didn't do. Dak probably made the transition from college to the NFL better than any other rookie QB, it doesn't make sense that he would be below average in year three after being so far above the curve out of the gate.

And the biggest thing is defenses could key on the short game because our playcalling was so predictable, we had no X and Y receivers in the first half and they only had to hold coverage for 3 seconds because our OL was so much worse in 2018. It was simple to sell out against the short game because it was so unlikely you would get burned deep. Beasley couldn't do it, Hurns couldn't do it, ditto Deonte Thompson. Gallup could in the second half but didn't have it in the first half.
 

Number1

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6th in deep passer rating but 19th in deep attempts. The Dak critics are half right - he doesn't throw deep enough. But the problem is that he should do it more because he's very good at it, which they claim he isn't. OC just wasn't calling enough deep shots.

I'd like to see those for his career, something tells me they looked better in 2016 behind a healthy OL, with Dez and Twill

hard to imagine he won't have more time to throw in 2019, to familiar targets with blazing deep speed

not sure what was called, but 56 sacks didn't help the number of deep shots. Dak only threw 3.6 deep shots a game, that's just over 10% of his passes.

do not be shocked if you see that rise to over 5 a game with greater success
 

Haimerej

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The "list" isn't an opinion piece. It's statistical data. When perceptions collide with reality why is reality dismissed?

Statistics only tell part of the story and are easily manipulated. For example, a QB can have great 4th QT numbers but the rest of the story is they were behind and racking up numbers against a prevent defense.
 

Haimerej

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For me, the biggest problem with the "vision" theory is that a QB's vision doesn't suddenly get better late in close games

Why not? They've had 3 quarters to see what the defense is doing and adjust accordingly.
 

Haimerej

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And the defenses aren't adjusting to the QB at the same time?

Sure. That's why sometimes the other team wins. This is the problem with trying to evaluate his ability to see the field with raw statistics.
 

percyhoward

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Why not? They've had 3 quarters to see what the defense is doing and adjust accordingly.
But in the 4th quarter, that's true of every QB -- not just the ones who can't see the field. And yet, there's no league-wide spike in the number of deeper attempts or passer rating late in close games. No increase in scoring either.

15+yd targets by quarter
(as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dak 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dak 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dak 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dak 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dak 25.7% NFL 20.0%


15+ yard targets as a percentage of total attempts / passer rating
4th qtr/OT tied or trailing by 8 points or less
Prescott 26.0% (20 of 77) / 135.4
Mahomes 20.8% (11 of 53) / 103.2
Goff 22.6% (7 of 31) / 111.9
Brees 20.0% (12 of 60) / 56.6

points per drive (Dallas' NFL rank)
1st qtr 1.77 (14th)
2nd qtr 1.67 (23rd)
3rd qtr 1.47 (22nd)
4th qtr 2.25 (6th)
 

jrumann59

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Dak actually had the highest number of throws into tight window percentage, so I would disagree that he only throws to wide open receivers lol.....
So when is ball considered a tight window pass, when its released, or when the ball gets there? I only ask because some are caused by the receiver or the qb. Let's say a guy is wide open but the pass is under thrown and completed is that tight window pass since it allowed the db to catch up and contest. Or if the pass has bad placement or if the we runs a sloppy route.
 

Oz-of-Cowboy-Country

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That might explain some of the drop in passing efficiency, but Dez's decline was probably the main factor. In 2017, even when Tyron was healthy and Zeke was still playing, we kept forcing it to Dez despite these results:

Prescott 2017
Passer Rating by Target
WR only, games 1-8
Bryant 38 of 75 (50.7%) 439 yd 5.9 ypa 4 td 2 int 75.4
others 64 of 97 (66.0%) 759 yd 7.8 ypa 6 td 2 int 101.6
This is what bothers me. How can a player all of a sudden drop off like that in one year? I think it was more of Garrett and Linehan trying to make the receivers live in a box. They kept saying they were going to make the offense Dak friendly. Dak friendly. Dak friendly. And right after that is when they started running all of these comebacks and outs. Run to the sticks and turn around. So I think it was more of them putting Dez in a box then it was Dez dropping off. Because I really can't see a player just dropping off like that. Not in one year. Dak to Dez was OK in 2016 but was trash in 2017. How? Usually you see the decline happening before it actually happens.
 

kskboys

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This is what bothers me. How can a player all of a sudden drop off like that in one year? I think it was more of Garrett and Linehan trying to make the receivers live in a box. They kept saying they were going to make the offense Dak friendly. Dak friendly. Dak friendly. And right after that is when they started running all of these comebacks and outs. Run to the sticks and turn around. So I think it was more of them putting Dez in a box then it was Dez dropping off. Because I really can't see a player just dropping off like that. Not in one year. Dak to Dez was OK in 2016 but was trash in 2017. How? Usually you see the decline happening before it actually happens.
They changed the O. It was talked about at the time. Went away from a system that utilized Dak's strengths. Didn't help not having a sharp route running WR ready to go.
 

percyhoward

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This is what bothers me. How can a player all of a sudden drop off like that in one year? I think it was more of Garrett and Linehan trying to make the receivers live in a box. They kept saying they were going to make the offense Dak friendly. Dak friendly. Dak friendly. And right after that is when they started running all of these comebacks and outs. Run to the sticks and turn around. So I think it was more of them putting Dez in a box then it was Dez dropping off. Because I really can't see a player just dropping off like that. Not in one year. Dak to Dez was OK in 2016 but was trash in 2017. How? Usually you see the decline happening before it actually happens.
Dak to Dez was much more than just OK in 2016. But Dez did fall off a cliff the next year, and whatever the reason for it, this had a huge impact on Dak and the passing game that lasted until the trade for Cooper.
 

Oz-of-Cowboy-Country

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Dak to Dez was much more than just OK in 2016. But Dez did fall off a cliff the next year, and whatever the reason for it, this had a huge impact on Dak and the passing game that lasted until the trade for Cooper.
Cole Beasley was the leading receiver in 2016. So maybe Dak friendly meant let's get every WR running routes like Beasley, since he had such a great year. Dez is not built to run those ins-n-outs and that's where Cooper comes in at. But that's just me guessing.
 

percyhoward

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Cole Beasley was the leading receiver in 2016. So maybe Dak friendly meant let's get every WR running routes like Beasley, since he had such a great year. Dez is not built to run those ins-n-outs and that's where Cooper comes in at. But that's just me guessing.
2016 was the year Dez came back from an early injury, had one of the best second halves in the league, and made the Pro Bowl.
 

Haimerej

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But in the 4th quarter, that's true of every QB -- not just the ones who can't see the field. And yet, there's no league-wide spike in the number of deeper attempts or passer rating late in close games. No increase in scoring either.

15+yd targets by quarter
(as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dak 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dak 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dak 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dak 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dak 25.7% NFL 20.0%


15+ yard targets as a percentage of total attempts / passer rating
4th qtr/OT tied or trailing by 8 points or less
Prescott 26.0% (20 of 77) / 135.4
Mahomes 20.8% (11 of 53) / 103.2
Goff 22.6% (7 of 31) / 111.9
Brees 20.0% (12 of 60) / 56.6

points per drive (Dallas' NFL rank)
1st qtr 1.77 (14th)
2nd qtr 1.67 (23rd)
3rd qtr 1.47 (22nd)
4th qtr 2.25 (6th)

There is a league wide increase. Maybe Dak's spike speaks to actual adjustments made by the coaches. Are we to believe the guy who isn't better than average during the first 3 quarters just decides to play better on his own in the 4th quarter?
 

percyhoward

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There is a league wide increase.
There is a slight league-wide increase, from 17.4% to 18.6%.

That's not a spike, like Dak's 9.2% to 18.9%.

Maybe Dak's spike speaks to actual adjustments made by the coaches.
As is the case with QB, that would be true of most if not all the league's coaches -- not just Dallas. The Cowboys moved up relative to the rest of the league from 22nd in 3rd quarter scoring to 6th in 4th-quarter scoring.

Are we to believe the guy who isn't better than average during the first 3 quarters just decides to play better on his own in the 4th quarter?
Prescott's numbers show two things: 1) that he takes more risks late in close games, and 2) that most of these risks have been successful. I don't know if it's a conscious decision on his part, the way he's coached, or just his nature. But I do know it isn't a sudden improvement in his vision.
 

Haimerej

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Prescott's numbers show two things: 1) that he takes more risks late in close games, and 2) that most of these risks have been successful. I don't know if it's a conscious decision on his part, the way he's coached, or just his nature. But I do know it isn't a sudden improvement in his vision.

Exactly.
 

Techsass

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A full camp and coop for a full season
Gallup grows as a receiver
A slot guy who can run down the field
I expect Dak’s numbers here get better this year
They got a lot better last year just by adding Amari. 2nd year Gallup should be a better mix. I'm still unsure of what the Cobb/Beasley swap will amount to.
 

Techsass

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It was simplified somewhat but they said in the second half of his rookie year they were running the full offense. The other side of the coin is that Dak was making the jump from college and executing an NFL offense as a rookie, something guys like Romo and Drew Brees didn't do. Dak probably made the transition from college to the NFL better than any other rookie QB, it doesn't make sense that he would be below average in year three after being so far above the curve out of the gate.

And the biggest thing is defenses could key on the short game because our playcalling was so predictable, we had no X and Y receivers in the first half and they only had to hold coverage for 3 seconds because our OL was so much worse in 2018. It was simple to sell out against the short game because it was so unlikely you would get burned deep. Beasley couldn't do it, Hurns couldn't do it, ditto Deonte Thompson. Gallup could in the second half but didn't have it in the first half.
I remember Dak saying that he ran a lot of the same plays in college and that he was already familiar with them.
 

AmericanCowboy

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Before Cooper arrived, we had the worst WR/TE Corp except for maybe Buffalo.

I mean in week one, there was literally a play when we had an empty back set and Dak was in the Shotgun, and the WR’s were Beasley, Hurns, Rod Smith, Swaim, and Jarwin!

Dak threw an excellent deep ball last year
 

ak47kaehu

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Anyone still using "the eyeball" test to dispute facts? Please entertain us.... i wanna eat popcorn and get a good laugh!
 
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