Twitter: Sturm comparing Dak downfield completion percentage with other league QBs

noshame

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But in the 4th quarter, that's true of every QB -- not just the ones who can't see the field. And yet, there's no league-wide spike in the number of deeper attempts or passer rating late in close games. No increase in scoring either.

15+yd targets by quarter
(as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dak 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dak 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dak 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dak 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dak 25.7% NFL 20.0%


15+ yard targets as a percentage of total attempts / passer rating
4th qtr/OT tied or trailing by 8 points or less
Prescott 26.0% (20 of 77) / 135.4
Mahomes 20.8% (11 of 53) / 103.2
Goff 22.6% (7 of 31) / 111.9
Brees 20.0% (12 of 60) / 56.6

points per drive (Dallas' NFL rank)
1st qtr 1.77 (14th)
2nd qtr 1.67 (23rd)
3rd qtr 1.47 (22nd)
4th qtr 2.25 (6th)

Oh no, not Percy with the facts. Haters hate this.
 

Fastpitch Dad

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I don't really agree with that. Cowboys run a deep route a lot as a matter of design. Dak doesn't throw it a lot because of his mind set IMO. Dak has this going on in his game and you see it all the time. Dak only throws to wide open receivers until the game gets to a point where you have to take chances in order to win. That's just who he is and that is also why he doesn't throw a lot of INTs and takes a lot of sacks. It's not entirely about play calling IMO. I mean, that part can always be improved upon but Dak has to get better at taking advantage of the long ball. He had guys deep last year that he either didn't find or elected not to go to. I'm not a Dak bash guy but I think you gotta be honest in the evaluation of his development. I would love to see him get more comfortable in that part of his game. He would be awesome!
One of the fairest Dak posts I've read in a long time.

Well done!
 

Fastpitch Dad

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PFF just put out an QB accuracy chart and Dak scored 5th in the league on one step separation throws. Now Strum has his lil chart too haha.

I'll say again, I've never seen so many stats and non-stat stats float around for one player.

Dak has some good.
Dak has some bad.
To ignore either is ignorant.

Having said that go watch some games from last year and if you don't see some meat left on the bone by Dak your just a cheerleader. It's obvious. But, Dak will come back and drop a dime later, so there's that.

Dak is an inconsistent QB with intangibles and accuracy/confidence issues at times... that's my gage.
I'm with you, very good post!
 

Silver N Blue

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PFF just put out an QB accuracy chart and Dak scored 5th in the league on one step separation throws. Now Strum has his lil chart too haha.

I'll say again, I've never seen so many stats and non-stat stats float around for one player.

Dak has some good.
Dak has some bad.
To ignore either is ignorant.

Having said that go watch some games from last year and if you don't see some meat left on the bone by Dak your just a cheerleader. It's obvious. But, Dak will come back and drop a dime later, so there's that.

Dak is an inconsistent QB with intangibles and accuracy/confidence issues at times... that's my gage.
.

:hammer:Been that way for the kid since college.
 

Hawkeye0202

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There is a slight league-wide increase, from 17.4% to 18.6%.

That's not a spike, like Dak's 9.2% to 18.9%.


As is the case with QB, that would be true of most if not all the league's coaches -- not just Dallas. The Cowboys moved up relative to the rest of the league from 22nd in 3rd quarter scoring to 6th in 4th-quarter scoring.


Prescott's numbers show two things: 1) that he takes more risks late in close games, and 2) that most of these risks have been successful. I don't know if it's a conscious decision on his part, the way he's coached, or just his nature. But I do know it isn't a sudden improvement in his vision.

This is just smart football......why take unnecessary risk quarters 1-3 if a win is within reach.
 

conner01

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They got a lot better last year just by adding Amari. 2nd year Gallup should be a better mix. I'm still unsure of what the Cobb/Beasley swap will amount to.
Beasley was so good at getting open underneath quickly. Not sure Cobb is but he opens up more down field do that’s the trade off
 

Roadtrip635

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So when is ball considered a tight window pass, when its released, or when the ball gets there? I only ask because some are caused by the receiver or the qb. Let's say a guy is wide open but the pass is under thrown and completed is that tight window pass since it allowed the db to catch up and contest. Or if the pass has bad placement or if the we runs a sloppy route.


Trying to determine if it was a tight window when the pass is being released wouldn't work because it negates what the defender is doing and distance of the throw. It may not be a tight window when being released, but there is time for the defender to react, sometimes defenders are in position but doesn't initially look like it because they are baiting the throw, stop routes in particular would be skewed because the receiver is slowed down but a defender has more time to close that ground. A faster defender vs a slower receiver also would also make it seem like there was a bigger window than there really ends up being. The windows are measured from the distance a defender is from a receiver, if measured at the time of release, there would be much fewer tight throws according to the stats, but wouldn't match the reality of what's happening on the field. A defender can be 3 yards from a receiver at release(which would be wide open), but by the time a ball actually gets there he could cover that distance and make it a tight throw.

Sometimes fans don't get that when they look and think that someone "looks" open, they really aren't because the defender is in position to break on the ball or forget that the ball doesn't just teleport there and that travel time gives them time to close ground.
 

kskboys

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Trying to determine if it was a tight window when the pass is being released wouldn't work because it negates what the defender is doing and distance of the throw. It may not be a tight window when being released, but there is time for the defender to react, sometimes defenders are in position but doesn't initially look like it because they are baiting the throw, stop routes in particular would be skewed because the receiver is slowed down but a defender has more time to close that ground. A faster defender vs a slower receiver also would also make it seem like there was a bigger window than there really ends up being. The windows are measured from the distance a defender is from a receiver, if measured at the time of release, there would be much fewer tight throws according to the stats, but wouldn't match the reality of what's happening on the field. A defender can be 3 yards from a receiver at release(which would be wide open), but by the time a ball actually gets there he could cover that distance and make it a tight throw.

Sometimes fans don't get that when they look and think that someone "looks" open, they really aren't because the defender is in position to break on the ball or forget that the ball doesn't just teleport there and that travel time gives them time to close ground.
What's even worse is when someone thinks some dude was wide open when in reality he wasn't open until the ball was thrown, and the guy guarding him broke toward the ball.
 
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